Tuesday, August 03, 2010

Not so hot

Another month of HadCRU data came in some time ago, so I can update this previous post. It's still not looking too good for me.

First ENSO continues to fade away, with a La Nina forecast for the summer, and predicted to be a bit stronger than the equivalent in 1998 (probably anything up to about Sept may affect the 2010 temperature):

And now the temperatures, which are actually still rising in terms of 12 month lagged average, but which have now dropped marginally below the 1998 values. There is not a lot in it yet, but 1998 had two more really hot months still to come at this point, and as you can see from the solid lines almost every month in 1998 was warmer than its equivalent in 2010:

The year to date average from HadCRU is also just a whisker below the final 1998 value (0.520 vs 0.529).


P. Lewis said...

↑ Spam? ↑

OMG! No warming since 1998 ... still, I bet.

There be legs on the ol' paradigm yet.

crandles said...

A different way of working it (better?):

Why work on 12 months that includes Sept to Dec 2009 that are not involved.

Average Jan-Aug 2010 = .526

Required rate Sept-Dec to get to 1998 average of .548 = .591

Anomaly reached a maximum in March (entirely predictably) at an anomaly of .586 and has decreased since then with last anomaly of 0.473.

With the required rate above the maximum rate reached this year and anomaly reductions since March and this expected to continue .... it just isn't going to happen.

Your way has a pretty graph, so I suppose I should suggest a graph of this years monthly anomalies and a required rate line (getting further apart don't you think?).

crandles said...

Even based on GISS it is pretty knife edged whether there will be a record. (I am betting no but don't think it is much under a 50% probability.)