Sunday, May 12, 2019

BlueSkiesResearch.org.uk: Stockholm

Just had a couple of weeks in Stockholm, courtesy of Thorsten Mauritsen at MISU. who we had previously visited in Hamburg. Lots of science will be forthcoming but we are too busy doing it to write about it for now 🙂

For the moment, I will just note that Thorsten is Danish, previously working in Germany but now in Sweden, we had discussions with his British and French group members, the Head of Department is Spanish. Discussions in the canteen seemed to be mostly English in a variety of accents (including the Dutch student who had considered coming to the UK but who had been dissuaded by the obvious reason), mixed with a range of unidentifiable Scandinavian languages – presumably mostly, if not all, Swedish. Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn would be horrified to hear of such an outrageous situation and I’m relieved that they are doing their level best to ensure that no Brits will risk encountering such a terrible situation again.

(Actually, to be honest I am relieved that their level best is so pitiful that we aren’t actually going to leave the EU. But I’m still disgusted that they are so scared at the thought of people living, working and studying in different countries that they are completely fixated on the idea of preventing us from doing so.)

2019-05-04 10.04.12
Haga parkrun was close to our hotel, and by strange quirk of fate on Sunday morning I ran a route which quite closely approximates a lap of the upcoming Stockholm marathon. I hadn't even known there was a marathon. Some were out practising for the famous Stockholm ski marathon too.
2019-05-05 11.05.30
Stockholm has a lot of islands, and as a result, there’s a lot of coastline and water.
2019-05-05 10.33.24On our last night we had dinner in a Michelin-starred restaurant which was an interesting experience. However this photo below is just the little castle on the top of Kastellholmen which may be used as some sort of conference centre I think.
2019-05-05 11.24.10

Monday, May 06, 2019

Oyster Roulette

 If you've ever lost at Oyster Roulette you might not be inclined to try it here. Or are they just being precautionary/truthful?

But, how nice that a full norovirus recovery pack it is included among the condiments... 
Salt, sugar, handwipes.



Tuesday, April 23, 2019

BlueSkiesResearch.org.uk: Steffen nonsense

Been pondering whether it was worth bother blogging this but I haven’t written for a while and in the end I decided the title was too good a pun to pass on (I never claimed to have high standards).

The paper "Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene" had entirely passed me by when it came out, though it did seem to attract a bit of press coverage eg with the BBC saying
Researchers believe we could soon cross a threshold leading to boiling hot temperatures and towering seas in the centuries to come.
Even if countries succeed in meeting their CO2 targets, we could still lurch on to this “irreversible pathway”.
Their study shows it could happen if global temperatures rise by 2C.
An international team of climate researchers, writing in the journal, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, says the warming expected in the next few decades could turn some of the Earth’s natural forces – that currently protect us – into our enemies.
and continues in a similar vein quoting an author
“What we are saying is that when we reach 2 degrees of warming, we may be at a point where we hand over the control mechanism to Planet Earth herself,” co-author Prof Johan Rockström, from the Stockholm Resilience Centre, told BBC News.
“We are the ones in control right now, but once we go past 2 degrees, we see that the Earth system tips over from being a friend to a foe. We totally hand over our fate to an Earth system that starts rolling out of equilibrium.”
Like I said, I had missed this, and it was only an odd set of circumstances that led me to read it, about which more below. But first, the paper itself. The illustrious set of authors postulate that once the global temperatures reach about 2C above pre-industrial, a set of positive feedbacks will kick in such that the temperature will continue to rise to about 5C above pre-industrial, even without any further emissions and direct human-induced warming. Ie, once we are going past +2C, we won’t be able to stabilise at any intermediate temperature below +5C.

The paper itself is open access at PNAS. The abstract is slightly more circumspect, claiming only that they "explore the risk":
We explore the risk that self-reinforcing feedbacks could push the Earth System toward a planetary threshold that, if crossed, could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a "Hothouse Earth" pathway even as human emissions are reduced. Crossing the threshold would lead to a much higher global average temperature than any interglacial in the past 1.2 million years and to sea levels significantly higher than at any time in the Holocene.
(the paper fleshes out these words in numerical terms).

The paper lists a number of possible positive carbon cycle feedbacks and quantifies them as summing to a little under half a degree of additional warming (Table 1 in the paper). The authors then wave their hands, say it could all get much worse, and with one bound Jack was free. End of paper. I went through it again to see what I’d missed, and I really hadn’t. It is just make-believe, they don’t "explore the risk" at all, they just assert it is significant. There’s a couple of nice schematic graphics about tipping points too.

The mildly interesting part is what led me to read the paper at all, 6 months after missing its original publication. An editor contacted me a little while ago to ask if I’d write half a of debate (to form a book chapter) over whether exceeding 2C of warming would lock us onto a trajectory for a much warmer hothouse earth. I was charged with arguing the sceptical side of that claim. I was initially a bit baffled by the proposal as I had not (at that point) thought anyone had claimed anything to the contrary, but it soon became clear what it was all about. I said I’d be happy to oblige, but it turns out that my intended opponents, being two of the co-authors on the paper itself, were not prepared to defend it in those terms.

Thursday, April 18, 2019

For posterity

Should have been quicker off the mark with the screenshot, cycling legend Gethin Butler pipped me last weekend at Brighton. This is the runbritainrankings list of UK marathon performances this year so far, in the male V50 category.

Of course the top guys tend to run London which is at the end of the month, so I'll be bumped a fair way down the order shortly. Not to mention the other various marathons through the rest of the year. I'll probably be around 20th eventually.


Saturday, April 13, 2019

[jules' pics] Durham Cathedral





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Tuesday, April 09, 2019

2:47:15

Another year, another Manchester marathon, another perfect day with perfect cool, still, cloudy weather and perfect organisation, another PB, shaving 89 seconds off the time I managed last year. A lengthier blog is posted here for those who are interested in these things. It was a good run for me and although I did dream of 2:45 (and set off aiming for that time) I wasn't quite up to it in the end. Finished 3rd in the V50 category (out of about 800 or so) which was a little stronger than in previous years as the event is growing in size and reputation so the field is strengthening. I was actually more than 40 places lower in 167th place overall despite the faster time.



Soon: off to Stockholm to finish off some work we've been very lackadaisical over for the past couple of years. That will be worth some blog posts when it's done. Hopefully we'll still be in the EU or else the travel might be...interesting.

Oh, this marathon result means one of my predictions has failed. Well, I only gave myself a 60% chance, so this was only a marginally less favoured outcome. The remaining 5 all seem well on track.

Monday, March 25, 2019

Marching in London to stop BREXIT

It was both immense and immensely good humoured.

Got to the end of the "assembly area" at Marble Arch in London, 0.8mile away from the start at Hyde Park Corner, a bit before 1pm. Joined the throng and inched down the road. Got to the official start in 90mins or so (apparently they started an hour early because it had got so full), and then moved marginally more quickly. Another 0.6 miles (about half the total distance of the march including the assembly area) and it was past 4pm and time to head for Euston station and home.

Hope it worked!

Very cross Britons:

Special places in Hell and having a nice chat while enjoying your sarnies.

Yorkshire!!! (Saw about 4 sets of these)

 Lancashire:

Labour Party and reformed Leavers (#RemainerNow):

Wales:

Peoples behind us - not even close to the start yet:

Nigel quotes are always good for a laugh...

Librarians!:

Jobs and grand children:

Aristotle?

James!

jules!


Pets:

If only...

Hmmm...?

Environment:



ITV report of the event quite good.

And here's their video:

Sunday, March 17, 2019

More Brexit

Stoat has called for another Brexit comment. I actually don't have a whole lot to add to what I said last time. It is clearly a mug's game to try to predict the day to day rollercoaster - it has been amusing to listen to podcasts which are hopelessly out of date within 24h as some previously unimaginable option is proposed or the Govt reneges on yet another promise. It has on occasion been headline news when the Govt merely reaffirms something it has already announced. And the Parliament channel has probably never before had such a large audience.

The basic reason for the short-term unpredictability is that there are 650 MPs and any number of SPADs etc forming their own alliances and opinions and making tactical decisions based on what they think may happen...no-one is voting on the direct basis of a rational preference ordering but maybe on the basis of what they think may increase the ultimate chances of the outcome they prefer, or perhaps just what will curry favour with their pals. And in some cases this may have more to do with seeing May win/lose than in anything to do with Brexit itself. Brexiters aren't even trying to be honest any more, whether in media interviews or even the House of Commons - perhaps the most impressive example (at time of writing!) of which was Brexit Secretary Steven Barclay closing Thursday's debate by imploring the House to vote for the Govt motion "in the national interest" before walking straight into the Noes lobby to vote against it. So trying to predict the short-term tactics, when motions are being won and lost by as few as 2 votes, and amendments are tricksily worded and edited and withdrawn on backroom discussions, is a bit futile.

There are lots of analogies with climate change which can be useful - we can't predict the detailed weather (though we can for about a week which is rather longer than parliament right now) but we can predict that summer will be warmer than winter and the 2050s will be hotter than the current decade. There are also lots of lying liars in the climate change debate, and most of them are on the brexit side too, which could be helpful if it wasn't obvious enough already. But there are also underlying truths that are not affected by what people say. We are warming the climate, and it still remains the case that there is no brexit that has majority support, in fact quite probably none of the brexit options would even have substantial minority support if all the potential brexits were to be considered in a multi-way vote. Debatably, remaining in the EU just about has majority support overall, it's certainly the most popular single option and quite likely more popular than any other single choice in a head-to-head vote. It seems quite plausible that we will be testing that proposition in the future. 

Parliament revoking A50 immediately is of course the best action, but on that basis it's unlikely to happen any time soon. Of the options under regular discussion, a long delay would be my pref as it gives more time for people to come round to #nobrexitatall which remains the only sensible final state of the Galton board we are currently rattling our way down. That said, another lesson to be drawn from climate change is that few people ever change their minds due to evidence. While I'm not a fan of another ref ratifying May's deal I do think it's a plausible compromise and while I've already said it's a bit pointless to predict what will happen, it does seem (today!) to be a reasonably likely pathway. I'm not very confident about which way a referendum would go - I'm sure that many people will think that May's withdrawal agreement is "getting it over with" rather than in reality just starting an indefinite period of negotiation over a future trade deal, all the while being subject to EU rules while losing all influence over them. On the other hand, so many have sworn to oppose May's deal, for all sorts of reasons, that it would be the mother of all u-turns for them to vote for it.

One advantage a referendum does have is that it would force the "I voted brexit but not for this brexit" crowd to take ownership of their decision. Also the "oh of course I voted remain but think we should leave" group would no longer be able to hide behind someone else's decision. You brexit, you own it. We'll get to see how many people actually want to leave the EU, rather than just live off the betrayal narrative. 

One of the highlights of recent days has been the abject failure of Farage's Gammonball Run aka "March to Leave".
It's truly remarkable that anyone with Farage's supposed politics skills could come up with such a guaranteed stinker of a plan. Whoever thought there would be mass support for trudging down the east coast of England for 10-20 miles per day in March, paying 50 quid for the dubious privilege of watching Farage say a few words before driving away in his bus, needs their head examined. If you want a short-term prediction from my blog, it is that this march is called off for some hastily-made-up and implausible reason before it gets to London. The optics of a small rabble of shouty old men yelling abuse at everyone they encounter, versus the good-humoured million person march of all types who will be in London next Saturday, could prove more than a little damaging to their image. Quite why the media is still in thrall to this rump of angry ignorant bigots remains a mystery to me. The BBC actually sent a reporter and cameraman for the start of the march, and put it on national TV. Perhaps they were doing auditions for the Question Time audience next week.

If May's withdrawal agreement does get through at the 3rd or 4th time of asking (because hey, MPs are allowed to change their minds on a daily basis, but the common people should know their place even if they were too young to vote back in 2016) then we will of course have a longer-term future of internecine warring within the Tories as they bicker firstly over their new leader and then in subsequent years (as the "transition" gets extended over and over again) over what sort of relationship we should have with the EU. That should take us up to, oooh, about 2030 or thereabouts, by which time most of those still around will be wondering what on earth this was all about and hopefully by then (maybe sooner with luck) we'll be ready to apply for proper EU membership, as a poorer and smaller nation, and under substantially worse conditions.

And all those who voted for this shitshow will blame someone else.


Monday, January 28, 2019

BlueSkiesResearch.org.uk: Costs of delaying action on climate change

This post was prompted by a silly twitter argument, about which probably the least said the better. Someone who has set themselves up as some sort of “climate communicator” had asserted that if we don’t halve our emissions in 12 years then the world as we know it will end. Moreover, anyone who even thought this assertion was controversial was, in their eyes, a denier. Well, I thought it was not so much controversial as simply false. But I did wonder, what is the actual effect of delaying decarbonisation of the global economy? In the sense of, let’s hypothesise that we actually can take policy action that decreases carbon emissions, what difference does it make when we start?

I’m sure people must have done (and published) these sort of calcs but to be honest I don’t recall seeing them. Most of the research I’ve seen seems to be more along the lines of: if we delay action then how much more stringent will it have to be, in order to meet a particular target? This pic below shows that sort of thing:
screenshot 2019-01-27 09.42.12
I don’t think this sort of thing is really all that helpful as it gives no clue as to how realistic any of the pathways are. It seems that this sort of graph is basically motivated by a political assertion (“let’s not let warming exceed X degrees|”) rather than any plausible understanding of the world we live in. I also don’t think it is very realistic to think that the world will design and implement carbon emissions policies that credibly aim at a particular max temperature change, at least not within my lifetime. So, here’s an alternative question that although still rather simplistic is (IMO) more directly relevant to the real world. Let’s assume we are able decarbonise at some given rate. How much difference does it make how soon we start?

To answer this, we have to model (a) CO2 emissions and how they vary with policy delays (b) how atmospheric CO2 concentrations vary with emissions (c) how climate change depends on CO2 concentrations, and finally perhaps (d) the economic impacts of climate change.

For (a), I assume an exponential growth rate for historical and future emissions up to the initiation of decarbonisation, followed by an exponential decline. I use a historical (and near future) growth rate of 1.9% in these calcs. For decarbonisation, I use a rate of 2% which would halve our emissions in 35 years. This is less than half the rate that would be required to halve emissions in 12 years as hypothesised earlier. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations are then provided from emissions by the equation of Myhrvold and Caldeira (2012). I could have used real historical emissions for the historical period of my simulation, but actually I get a marginally closer fit to historical CO2 concs when just using the exponential growth with my chosen rate. Three decarbonisation dates tested are 2020, 2030 and 2070. Ie starting now(ish), or alternatively after a delay of 10 or 50 years respectively.
screenshot 2019-01-27 13.31.02
Current CO2 concentration is about 410ppm, increasing by 2.5ppm per year. I didn’t bother distinguishing or labelling the three lines on each graph as it’s obvious which relates to which scenario. I have marked the date at which decarbonisation starts, so you can see how the concentration increases for quite a while after we start to cut emissions.

The resulting climate change is modelled by the widely-used two-layer model of Winton, Takahashi and Held (2010) discussed in several papers by Held, Winton and others (2010 ish). Parameter values can be changed in this model, but the only one that really matters here is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) to a doubling of CO2. For non-CO2 forcings (aerosols, volcanoes, methane etc) I use historical estimates for the historical era and just hold these fixed at their current values indefinitely into the future. The model simulation matches historical data pretty reasonably as shown below. The max temp rises (up to the year 2350) for the three scenarios are indicated on the graph, ie you get a 0.25C increase in max temp for a 10 year delay, and 1.6C for 50 years. In other words, each year of delay initially leads to an increase in ultimate warming of about 0.025C, and this number rises steadily to around 0.04C per year in the middle of the century. The differences in temperature seen by the year 2100 are a little less than this, eg at this time there is just under 0.2C difference between the 2020 and 2030 scenarios.
screenshot 2019-01-27 13.31.36
Raising the sensitivity of the model increases the ultimate temperature rise of course, and also increases the difference between the scenarios. For a sensitivity of 5C (hard to reconcile with what we believe) the 10y delay leads to an additional ultimate warming of almost 0.4C, though in this case significant warming is continuing beyond the end of the simulations in 2350 and the long-term differences will also grow gradually beyond this time. For sensitivity of 2C, the decadal delay leads to an ultimate difference of just under 0.2C, and is only 0.15C at 2100.

So this is the cost, in climate terms, of delaying decarbonisation. I don’t think the underlying assumptions are unreasonable, though no doubt some could be changed. The growth rate of emissions at 1.9% per year is probably debatable but (when fed through the Myhrvold and Caldeira equation) gives reasonable historical results. My decarbonisation rate is a guess, but results are not very sensitive to this. Eg if we can achieve 5% decarbonisation rate, then the cost of a 10-year delay is reduced slightly to just under 0.2C rather than the 0.25C I've calculated. Note that the starting point for this post was an assumption (assertion?) that we can decarbonise at 5% per year, otherwise the world is going to end anyway.

Evaluating the economic impact of the warming may be the most contentious part. Here I’ve just used an estimate based on a version of the (Nobel-winning) Nordhaus DICE model, which I also used in this paper. Other estimates are available, and I wouldn't be surprised if these impacts have nudged up slightly but I don't expect they would be radically different. I’ve also used a simple 2% per annum growth rate for past and future GDP which some may disagree with, especially when extrapolated out to 2350. But what else should I have done?
screenshot 2019-01-27 13.31.19
There are indeed three lines on this graph, but they aren’t very clearly separated! The 2%(ish) cost of modest climate change just isn’t very visible against the background of several orders of magnitude of economic growth. To be clear, I don’t think that everything can be readily boiled down to money – recent events show, many millions are apparently willing to squander untold billions (of other peoples’ money, of course) on the hypothetical benefits of "sovereignty". Yes, I’m talking about brexit, the costs of which will undoubtedly dwarf any plausible impact of climate change on the UK, for many decades to come. But even if we aren’t trying to maximise economic benefit, it’s still an interesting context for the impact of climate change policies.

At this point I will refrain from making any more rhetorical flourishes but will instead leave the reader to decide whether this analysis indicates an end to the world.

Wednesday, January 02, 2019

Predictions

Tim Harford says that the act of making predictions makes for better people (based on this paper). I've always enjoyed making predictions so I suppose I should be pretty wonderful by now. Hmmm...well in fairness he was only suggesting an association not a guarantee. In the hope of improving myself a little further, I offer the following:

  1. Brexit won't happen (p=0.95).
  2. I will run a time (just!) under 2:45 at Manchester marathon (p=0.6).
  3. Jules and I will finish off the rather delayed work with Thorsten and Bjorn (p=0.95).
  4. We will also submit a highly impactful paper in collaboration with many others (p=0.85).
  5. 2019 will be warmer than most years this century so far (p=0.75 - not the result of any real analysis).
  6. The level of CO2 in the atmosphere will increase (p=0.999).