Wednesday, July 07, 2010

[jules' pics] 7/06/2010 11:09:00 PM

Not many bugs around this year - it has been so cold - barely reaching 30C during the daytime, but here is another example (see here for the first), of a butterfly sucking colour out of a flower. Taking this sort of photo is quite exciting. The result looks very stationary, but there was only an instant when it all came together.

[Jomyouji English garden - which has captured the English garden spirit of being in full bloom in June - but the flowers do look a bit exotic]



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Posted By jules to jules' pics at 7/06/2010 11:09:00 PM

Tuesday, July 06, 2010

The writing's on the wall...

...and it's in English. Or so it seems, in some ways at least.

Recently, two major Japanese companies have announced that their official language for business - even internally - will be English. (I'm not entirely sure why this is headline news, as several other companies have already adopted this policy some time ago, but never mind about that.) They are both trying to break into international markets, so the potential benefits are pretty big (not denying that there will of course be disadvantages too, given the poor English language skills throughout the population here). English language education is also being introduced at earlier stage in education. That's over the howls of the nationalists, of course, who argue that the children will be "confused" by this and that English should be left until they are more secure in their Japanese.

From their own parochial and reactionary point of view, I wonder if they may have a reason to be fearful. For while all the research I have read indicates that bilingualism is easily instilled at an early age, and that starting early does not harm understanding of the "mother" tongue, there is also interesting new research showing how patterns of thought are shaped by language. In that study, it was found that people who learnt (as children) a primitive sign language which did not include clear concepts of relative position (left and right, under/over etc), performed much worse in tests of spatial communication than those who learnt a later version of the language which did.

So it is not implausible that learning only Japanese could be a factor which contributes towards ensuring that children learn to think only as Japanese.

We have been amused in management meetings where everyone is rattling along in Japanese, interspersed with words like "management" and "communication". It's a cheap shot to say well, the Japanese language obviously does not include these concepts. And only partly true. More accurately, these words are used to mean the Japanese version of what the original concept was, which may bear little relation to what we would expect. Like a "diet", for example - which includes anything related to exercise, as well as a reduction in calorie intake itself. And "smart" means slim. Once, someone here (well-educated, with overseas experience) proudly described the Japanese funding arrangements as "very democratic", because all of the senior sensei were given reasonably equitable budgets to disperse as they saw fit among their minions.

No, that is not "democracy", it's a feudal hierarchy. But confusion between the two might explain rather a lot about Japanese politics.

The lack of distinction between "right" and "privilege" is also notable IMO. Here, we are allowed to do whatever the Govt allows us to do. And it doesn't matter if we understand the law, so long as we obey it.

So I wonder what would happen if a generation of genuinely bilingual Japanese children grow up with a facility to understand and debate the differences between rights and privileges, or democracies and feudal hierarchies. It could make for interesting times. No wonder the reactionary bigots are against it.

Meanwhile, JAMSTEC is still bravely holding back the tide of English, Canute-like. This makes it very easy to ignore the deluge of administrivia that fills my email inbox. Long may it continue!

[jules' pics] 7/05/2010 11:14:00 PM

The most disconcerting thing about the Japanese is their ability to sleep while standing up. It is also a bit odd the way that everybody regularly sleeps in meetings, and no one minds. One day I hope to be in a meeting where everybody falls asleep at the same time. I have my iphone Vuvuzela App primed to celebrate the event.

Monday, July 05, 2010

It's the end of the world as we know it!

Or maybe not.

Hot on the heels of the latest exoneration (and in anticipation of the next - possibly the last?), Fred Pearce has rounded up a handful of the usual suspects to claim that the stolen emails have been a "game changer".

I suppose as it becomes increasingly clear that there really was nothing to get excited about we can look forward to increasingly desperate attempts to puff up this irrelevant sideshow into something worthwhile. After all, a lot of journalists (and some scientists too) staked a fair bit of their credibility on this actually amounting to a hill of beans.

Talking of my pal Fred Pearce, he couldn't resist trying to push a "climategate" frame on the McLean et al stuff just recently. Of course there is absolutely no link other than that a couple of our wholly innocuous emails were revealed amongst the hacked documents. Other than that, the article is just some rather empty he-said-she-said and it seems Pearce didn't even bother to confirm that the MFC's reply really was rejected by JGR, merely reporting this as an allegation. [He did email me with some questions just before writing that article, but nothing related to what he actually wrote.]

[jules' pics] 7/04/2010 08:20:00 PM


At Yakuoji, Kamakura, originally uploaded by julesberry2001.

Since frontals are in vogue, here's Buddha, meditating so deeply, at the quite weird Yakuoji cemetery, that he didn't seem to notice me taking the photo, even though I was right in front of him*.

Yakuoji's main claim to fame is that Nichiren sits in the main building with his mouth open, telling the people of 13th century Kamakura what's what. He did quite a lot of that. I expect he'd have a big ranty blog if he were alive today.

[*with my very discreet Sony TX5]



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Posted By jules to jules' pics at 7/04/2010 08:20:00 PM

Saturday, July 03, 2010

[jules' pics] 7/03/2010 02:15:00 AM


James and a Thistle, originally uploaded by julesberry2001.

Just to prove that James is not one dimensional, by special request, frontal James with, as a bonus, his national flower.

[Jomyoji English garden - either James is 1 foot high, or that thistle's gone a bit mad in Japan...and yes, that T-shirt is nearly 20 years old]



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Posted By jules to jules' pics at 7/03/2010 02:15:00 AM

Friday, July 02, 2010

[jules' pics] Pom Pom City

I will try to limit the damage of the Kamakura pom pom epidemic, by posting them all in one post. I know that already I am defeated, as some sneaked into the back of the last picture.

Starting with the many at Meigetsuin, and ending with just one.

Meigetsuin

hydrangea - ajisai, in Kamakura

Ajissaaaaai, are everywhere in Kamakura.

Being at something of a loss as to how to photograph horrible pom pom flowers, for this last photo I am grateful for the inspiration gained from "myu-myu" one of my contacts on flickr, who appears to be a little dog but, nevertheless, clearly knows what they are doing when it comes to taking pictures of flowers and stuff.



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Posted By jules to jules' pics at 6/23/2010 02:39:00 PM

Thursday, July 01, 2010

Penn State Live - Investigation of climate scientist at Penn State complete

Mann cleared again, again. I'm not even sure what he was cleared of this time. But whatever it was, it didn't happen, it wasn't him anyway, and you can't prove a thing :-)

Hot or not?

The appearance of another month of HadCRU temperatures is the spur I need to finally write something about the prospects for a temperature record this year. Recall I have a bet with David Whitehouse on whether the 1998 temperature record is broken by 2011. While this doesn't have to happen this year, it might be the best chance I've got of a win.

The first point to make is that the current ENSO is just about over. It was a significant event, but nothing compared to 1998. In fact based on the forecasts I happened to download over the past few months, it has slightly undershot expectations. Here is a comparison of 1997-8 with 2009-10:


These data are actually 3-month smoothed so the last point labelled as April actually represents March-April-May and presumably the next datum is not far away. So at its maximum the recent ENSO was nothing like as strong as the one back then, but neither is it collapsing as quickly. Current forecasts are for a moderate La Nina later in the year.

Here's a comparison of the Hadcru temperatures:

The dotted lines are a 12-month backwards-looking smooth. As you can see, in 1998 December pretty much caught the peak in the temperature although the anomaly had collapsed a few months earlier. It looks to me like the red line will struggle to keep above the blue one over the next few months, and it is not at all certain that it will be on top come December. There's got to be a chance but I don't think I'd put it higher than 50% now (based on nothing more than eyeballing the graph plus the expected death of the ENSO - I haven't tried to find any more detailed forecasts of temperature).

Hansen (and to some extent the Hadley Centre) is still talking up the chance of a record temperature. For example, the former said it was "likely" in a recent widely-circulated draft paper. But that is using GISTEMP which already has 2005 hotter than 1998. In fact based on that analysis, the past 12 months are the hottest on record (in terms of anomaly) which is not the case for HadCRU.

[jules' pics] 6/30/2010 11:10:00 PM


James at Meigetsuin, originally uploaded by julesberry2001.

Portrait of James' on his 14th Wedding Anniversary. You can easily see how the ravages of time (and not being believed about climate sensitivity) are taking their toll, even though he attempts to hide the decline with his hand. For easy comparison, here is last year's portrait.

[Photo take on 21 June 2010, at Meigetsuin, home of the infamous blue pompom bushes, which will probably soon demand to be blogged.]



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Posted By jules to jules' pics at 6/30/2010 11:10:00 PM