tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.comments2024-02-15T04:42:41.606+00:00James' Empty BlogJames Annanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comBlogger12177125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-92091638290094893082023-11-30T10:01:50.561+00:002023-11-30T10:01:50.561+00:00Don't think the Tories really care either, it&...Don't think the Tories really care either, it's all about massaging their reputations and there's so much blame to spread around that this one component of it probably doesn't register. I mean, it is indisputable that the govt were ill-prepared and the response was poor in multiple ways, but the scientists did contribute to this and have their own lessons to learn.James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-74810951979149007052023-11-29T15:07:40.589+00:002023-11-29T15:07:40.589+00:00Good luck getting them to care. It looks like ever...Good luck getting them to care. It looks like everyone has quietly decided not to; perhaps it would interfere with whatever they've stiched up behind the scenes. Perhaps send a copy to the Tories, or Boris?William M. Connolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-76406475024954544642023-11-27T09:35:58.032+00:002023-11-27T09:35:58.032+00:00It's a bit of an illusion, the 3-day curve for...It's a bit of an illusion, the 3-day curve for cases is taller but also much narrower than the 5d one, so the total number of deaths is more similar than the peak would suggest. The death curves are are more similar in width to each other, due to the smoothing out of a random time to death.James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-22930661808994238472023-11-26T23:15:30.312+00:002023-11-26T23:15:30.312+00:00In your second figure, why is the difference in de...In your second figure, why is the difference in deaths less than the difference in cases? Changing the doubling time for cases shouldn’t affect the IFR.Peterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12559721137290332762noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-17959534923461990352023-11-25T13:52:34.159+00:002023-11-25T13:52:34.159+00:00Regrettably it is hard to convey such subtleties t...Regrettably it is hard to convey such subtleties to politicians with PPE degrees.Entropic manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08924031505275303068noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-53444191644263236152023-11-21T23:19:20.545+00:002023-11-21T23:19:20.545+00:00Did you read Report 9?
I know some epidemiology. ...Did you read Report 9?<br /><br />I know some epidemiology. My wife and I ducked for cover as soon as I read it.<br /><br />https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/disease-areas/covid-19/report-9-impact-of-npis-on-covid-19/Entropic manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08924031505275303068noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-31137047145908148062023-11-20T14:50:52.059+00:002023-11-20T14:50:52.059+00:00Congratulations on your retirement.
Congratulations on your retirement.<br />Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07567197089095711546noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-5390075237832727922022-09-23T08:42:03.031+01:002022-09-23T08:42:03.031+01:00Sadly yes I'm vaguely aware of it. If you want...Sadly yes I'm vaguely aware of it. If you want to read and provide a summary, have fun :-)James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-42373064506172657952022-09-21T02:08:54.544+01:002022-09-21T02:08:54.544+01:00JA,
You know this I am sure ...
Objectively comb...JA,<br /><br />You know this I am sure ... <br />Objectively combining climate sensitivity evidence<br />Nicholas Lewis<br /><br />Critiquing Sherwood, et. al. (2020).<br /><br />I will patiently await anything you all have to say in response.<br /><br />Thanks in advance.Everett F Sargenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00201577558036010680noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-87778677848978924112022-08-25T17:14:58.851+01:002022-08-25T17:14:58.851+01:00The baseline is basically "pre-industrial&quo...The baseline is basically "pre-industrial" in both cases and the definition is a little bit imprecise and variable between authors, but if you think of 1850-1900 you won't be far wrong. Tierney et al actually used the top of their cores (and called it "Late Holocene" rather than "pre-industrial"), and the date for these won't be the same for all data points, it depends what is retrieved and analysed. However, we actually tried a few sensitivity tests with different baselines and the differences were only minor. Not that much happened up to the last 50y or so really, at least compared to an ice age.<br /><br />Bear in mind that when writing research papers, they are very much aimed at the in-crowd and not a wider readership.James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-56745700193053090302022-08-25T11:19:21.351+01:002022-08-25T11:19:21.351+01:00Even UAH 6.0 shows warming, when comparing those t...Even UAH 6.0 shows warming, when comparing those two periods, albeit not much (0.79°C/decade):<br /><br /><a href="https://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah6-land/from:1998.0/to:2003.96/trend/plot/uah6/from:2012.0/to:2017.96/trend/plot/uah6/from:1998.0/to:2003.96/plot/uah6/from:2012.0/to:2017.96" rel="nofollow">https://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah6-land/from:1998.0/to:2003.96/trend/plot/uah6/from:2012.0/to:2017.96/trend/plot/uah6/from:1998.0/to:2003.96/plot/uah6/from:2012.0/to:2017.96</a><br /><br /><a href="https://sealevel.info/2012-2017_vs_1998-2003_UAH6_wft.png" rel="nofollow">https://sealevel.info/2012-2017_vs_1998-2003_UAH6_wft.png</a><br /><br />They lost, fair and square. They need to pay up.ncdave4lifehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05022815923433003840noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-90263301002605676512022-08-22T17:29:04.168+01:002022-08-22T17:29:04.168+01:00What is the definition of "LGM temperature an...What is the definition of "LGM temperature anomaly?" I.e., to what date's average temperature is "-4.5±1.7°C" or "-6.1±0.4°C" compared? Is it the 2000-2020 average? Is it 1950 (like the "BP" baseline)? Is it HCO peak? Is it late LIA "pre-industrial?"<br /><br />Tierney says, "Our assimilated product provides a constraint on global mean LGM cooling of −6.1 degrees Celsius (95 per cent confidence interval: −6.5 to −5.7 degrees Celsius)." Calling it "cooling" means that she's comparing with a <i><b>prior</b></i> temperature, i.e., the Eemian. But that seems very odd.<br /><br />My guess is that she doesn't really mean "cooling," she means "6.1°C cooler than _____", and calling it "cooling" is just another example of the paleoclimate community's fuzzy jargon. But what date should fill in the blank is unmentioned.<br /><br /><b>{RANT}</b> I find annoying the paleoclimate community's bad habit of using jargon which redefines and contradicts plain English. E.g., why say "BP," which stands for "Before Present," when they actually mean "before 1950"? That's pretty much guaranteed to mislead readers who aren't part of the "in crowd," and don't know the secret code. Why can't they use normal English, which means what it says, or at the very least, invent NEW terms, which don't redefine established meanings? E.g., why not call it "B1950"? <b>{/RANT}</b><br />ncdave4lifehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05022815923433003840noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-71605781328122095792022-02-13T06:13:09.858+00:002022-02-13T06:13:09.858+00:00Seville oranges are the laughingstock of the Span...Seville oranges are the laughingstock of the Spanish Navy.<br /><br />Seek out the Moro blood orange cultivar.<br />Use it ripe but mold-free, and you will have something that <br />tastes amazing and out ages Oxford Vintage.THE CLIMATE WARShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02578106673226403151noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-65924085488673648492021-12-24T16:14:59.357+00:002021-12-24T16:14:59.357+00:00The latest ONS says 2.8% average positivity over t...The latest ONS says 2.8% average positivity over the week 13-19th Dec, which is a huge increase on their previous number. If I sum up my infections for the 12 days 6-17th I get 1.7% of the population infected in that window - which plausibly translates to positive in the relevant window. <br /><br />I don't think it is that clear that my graphs are an order of magnitude wrong. I would agree it looks like things have probably flattened off a bit. I think it's possible that testing is showing an optimistic picture for a number of reasons.James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-9393478126970776332021-12-24T09:22:20.830+00:002021-12-24T09:22:20.830+00:00As your first plot seems to be an order of magnitu...As your first plot seems to be an order of magnitude too high, I'm wondering which assumption needs to be changed. Both?<br />I also note Francois Balloux on the BBC website suggesting London has already passed the peak and the rest of the country is soon to follow.<br />If the death rate doesn't rise any more than it did in South Africa, perhaps we should consider Omicron infections as vaccination events, and a way to help the vaccine-hesitant?Anteroshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11356962920068418592noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-47863776676942154062021-12-23T12:51:14.123+00:002021-12-23T12:51:14.123+00:00Definitely looks like a bit of a slowdown, though ...Definitely looks like a bit of a slowdown, though it's hard to be certain that counting hasn't got harder....positivity rate in London has gone v high for example and data delays may also be growing. But certainly some people have changed their behaviour.James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-55691178469701997692021-12-23T10:04:45.372+00:002021-12-23T10:04:45.372+00:00Since the govt has done very little, does this now...Since the govt has done very little, does this now amount to a prediction that your first plot applies? Or does the general quietening down towards Christmas count as a decrease in expected R?William M. Connolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-62998451077351076052021-10-21T19:24:19.651+01:002021-10-21T19:24:19.651+01:00Vaccination of children has indeed been abysmal. O...Vaccination of children has indeed been abysmal. Our government not only doesn't learn from its mistakes - it doesn't learn from its successes either. <br /><br />It had a vaccination program in full swing, run by local health authorities, yet where I live at least, contracted out the vaccination of 12 - 15 year olds to a private company, Virgin Healthcare. Result - vaccination rates of 14% in this age group the last time I looked.<br /><br />Our 14 year old son was due to have his vaccination two weeks ago, but Virgin Healthcare cancelled the vaccinations for the whole school one day before he was due to have it.<br /><br />The obvious time to vaccinate this age group would have been in August before the start of the school term. As you say, this stupid delay has led to the virus spreading throughout schools and into the wider community. Doh!Chris Shttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06129177237617574693noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-41328597872166321292021-10-18T17:08:19.963+01:002021-10-18T17:08:19.963+01:00USA's case rate/million is well below the UK&#...USA's case rate/million is well below the UK's. 1,500 vs 4,340<br /><br />USA's death rate/million is well above, about twice the UK's. 25 vs 12<br /><br />Lower vaccination rate in the USA seems the likely suspect.<br /><br /><br />https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table<br /><br /><br />Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07567197089095711546noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-69942524091387548492021-10-17T15:14:03.247+01:002021-10-17T15:14:03.247+01:00When you say "We'll be stuck with very hi...When you say "We'll be stuck with very high levels for the foreseeable future" it sounds like you think those levels are unacceptable. But if half the current deaths are vaccinated people, we have about 50 (vaccinated) people dying a day. Very easy to think that that's a lot but it's roughly a moderate flu-season number. <br /><br />My perspective is if we were offered that a year ago we'd have bitten hands off to get it. I might be wrong but I also guess that the death rate will continue to fall over the next few years even if it requires twice-yearly boosters. <br /><br />So I wouldn't want the Gov' to do much beyond continually encouraging vaccination/boosters and putting teeny bits of pressure on those who don't want them. Anteroshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11356962920068418592noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-75839955247388283642021-10-16T21:28:31.899+01:002021-10-16T21:28:31.899+01:00> the stupid delay due to JCVI's shilly-sha...> the stupid delay due to JCVI's shilly-shallying<br /><br />Indeed. Our experts failing us.<br /><br />Overall, though, life largely seems to be back to normal, at least my kind of life, so I'm kinda unsurprised that the govt doesn't feel much pressure to do anything, because I suspect most people don't want it to do anything. And it rarely appears in the news, cos everyone is bored of it and hoping it will all go away.William M. Connolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-33657764095941685272021-09-20T15:40:21.221+01:002021-09-20T15:40:21.221+01:00Thanks! I ended up just coding up a google sheets ...Thanks! I ended up just coding up a google sheets custom function to estimate the inverse. Three iterations of Newton's method is more than enough to get within 0.1 km/h. I've attached my function here in case it's of interest to anyone else!<br /><br /><br />const a = 1.86e-02;<br />const b = -5.37e-04;<br />const c = 2.23e-05;<br />const d = 1.33e-05;<br /><br />function SPEEDTOPOWER(speed, weight, height) {<br /> return a * weight * speed + (b + c * weight + d * height) * speed * speed * speed;<br />}<br /><br />function POWERTOSPEED(power, weight, height) {<br /> let speed = 40; // Initial guess - about right for TTT<br /> const A = a * weight;<br /> const B = b + c * weight + d * height;<br /> // Use Newton's method to find a root of f = A * speed + B * speed^3 - P<br /> for (i = 0; i < 3; ++i) {<br /> speed = speed - (A * speed + B * speed * speed * speed - power) / (A + 3 * B * speed * speed)<br /> }<br /> return speed;<br />}<br />Simonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08252808752314324483noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-267465955313497712021-09-20T10:38:46.983+01:002021-09-20T10:38:46.983+01:00Thanks for comments. No direct inverse, though you...Thanks for comments. No direct inverse, though you could approximate quite well in various ways. If you are trying to give pull targets then just using 2.5W/kg and 1W/cm (as deviations from the team mean) is probably good enough really. The fit without the linear term is a lot worse.<br /><br />I just put in the speed and adjust it until the pulls look about right for the team members (who have been vary a lot from week to week). Seems to work pretty well.James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-80078640517736578212021-09-20T03:56:47.379+01:002021-09-20T03:56:47.379+01:00For my TTT simulator, I want to compute speed (on ...For my TTT simulator, I want to compute speed (on the flats) given a specific target power so I really want the inverse of your equation. I think I can just use a couple of iterations of Newton's method with a starting v in the right ballpark (e.g. 40km/h for a TT), i.e. a couple of repetitions of:<br /><br />v1 = v0 - (awv + (-b + cw + dh) v^3 - P) / (aq + 3(-b + cw + dh) v^2),<br /><br />where a, b, c, and d are the 4 constants in your expression.<br /><br />But a closed form expression would be even better and, given that your initial thought was that the power was a function of v^3, which would have a simple inverse, did you try the fit without that wv term? Any thoughts welcome. Thanks again!Simonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08252808752314324483noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-71057910837781683342021-09-18T22:27:12.564+01:002021-09-18T22:27:12.564+01:00I was just fiddling around with my TTT spreadsheet...I was just fiddling around with my TTT spreadsheet and thinking that someone out there *must* have worked out the relationship between power and speed on the flat. And here it is! Many thanks.Simonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08252808752314324483noreply@blogger.com