Green, Armstrong and Soon (2010): Yes, the IPCC (1992) prediction was skillful

A new paper from Amstrong and colleagues (and yes, it's *that* Soon) has made its way onto the blogosphere. For his previous self-embarrassment, see here. Of course they don't actually express their result quite so clearly as I've written it, because their goal for some time now has clearly been to denigrate the IPCC wherever possible, but they cannot avoid the simple truth:

We found that averaged across all 17 forecast horizons, the 1992 IPCC projected warming rate errors for the period 1992 to 2008 were 16% smaller than forecast errors from our benchmark

Full paper here. There's a lot of dubious stuff in there too, so don't take any of it too seriously. Eg, even though the IPCC did mention a warming rate of 0.3C/decade, they also said (on-line here):

Because GCMs do not yet include possible opposing anthropogenic influences, including the forcing from sulphate aerosols and stratospheric ozone depletion, the net rate of increase in surface temperature is expected to be less, at least during the period for which sulphur emissions continue to increase, than would be expected from greenhouse gas forcing alone.

So the 0.3C/decade was believed to be an overestimate back in 1992. Green et al used it anyway and found out it was better than their baseline "no change" forecast.

Climate debate: opinion vs evidence

You haven't had much climate science here recently, mostly because all that's been in the news relating to climate science, well...isn't actually anything to do with climate science really. Maybe I'll comment on some of it eventually. But in the meantime, why not read this article, which is the sort of thing the press ought to have more of IMO:

ABC The Drum Unleashed - Climate debate: opinion vs evidence

Update - in a similar vein, mt weighs in on Sarewitz - I'll change the date on this post to push it to the top.

[jules' pics] 3/11/2010 08:57:00 PM

camelia, originally uploaded by julesberry2001.

I find camelia difficult to photograph, as, to me, they look like rubbish roses - and I don't really like roses anyway. Their main feature is that the different varieties flower from around November through to March or April, providing a lot of colour. The fancier the variety, the later they bloom. Their other feature is that the flowers fall whole from the bush - hence the blooms lying at Mrs Tiggywinkle's feet.

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Posted By jules to jules' pics at 3/11/2010 08:57:00 PM

A once in a thousand years weather event

Spotted some sad news in the papers today.

Kamakura has a famous old ginkgo tree in front of the main temple in the middle of town. It is quite a spectacle late in the year when the leaves turn brilliant yellow. It is reputed to date from the era when Kamakura was the capital of Japan, and be the site of a famous murder which wiped out the last heirs of the ruling Minamoto shogun family at the time (the story goes that, following the untimely death of his father and previous shogun Yoriie, Kugyo blamed his uncle Sanetomo for usurping his rightful position, so hid behind the tree and killed Sanetomo when he came to pray one night. Kugyo was caught and killed, leaving no more male heirs.) Actually according to Masuda-san, the tree is not old enough to have been around at this time, but it's a nice story.

Anyway, the tree is no more. On Tuesday night, it was snowing as we walked home through the temple grounds. And at 4:40 am on Wednesday, it was windy....and the tree blew down. Story here. Interesting that the Yomiuri is happy to repeat the myth about the tree's age as if a fact, even though Masuda-san says it has been tested and shown to be false.

Strange really as it did not seem all that windy (neither was the snow heavy), and the tree survived a direct hit from a typhoon a few years ago that even knocked off some of the larger branches and so should perhaps have made it less vulnerable to a gale.

Actually, it occurs to me that the Japanese do a lot of tree transplantation, so I wonder if they will try to save it?

The importance of a strong currency

Cycling to work as usual, bright sunny morning, and...thump thump bang whizz. The back tyre had split. I try to check the tyres for wear reasonably regularly but perhaps had not looked closely enough last time, as it was pretty thin all over. Of course we were equidistant from home and work, so it would be a long way to walk. Still, it's not that big a deal to fix, assuming the repair-kit is complete. Oops. We carry a bit of tyvek (cut from an envelope) to wrap round the tube in the event of a split tyre casing. Tyvek is incredibly tough, yet thin, and this has saved us on several past occasions including a holiday which we completed (gently) with no further problems. But somehow the square of tyvek had become separated from the repair kit (it later turned up in the other repair kit, an occupational hazard of having multiple bikes). What to do now?

The canonical emergency repair in this situation is the trusty dollar bill. Being in Japan, where dollar bills are a bit thin on the ground, we thought the nearest equivalent should work - in fact, a ¥1000 note should be about 11 times as good. But it felt a bit feeble. So instead of continuing to work, with the prospect of the return journey in the dark, we returned in the direction of home to do a proper repair.

Just as well. We had managed most of the distance when the thump thump started up again. A quick stop and deflation saved the tube (which was poking out of the hole), but we still had a 20 minute walk home. Lucky it was sunny.



When I took the wheel apart, I found that the note had ripped right across twice, and it is also split where it covered the casing hole. I hope it's not treasonable to deface banknotes here...

[jules' pics] 3/10/2010 12:17:00 AM

Fuji-san from Kamakura, originally uploaded by julesberry2001.

Japanese people like to photograph Fuji-san looking something like this. The reality is different.

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Posted By jules to jules' pics at 3/10/2010 12:17:00 AM

[jules' pics] 3/07/2010 07:39:00 PM

bear shrine thing, originally uploaded by julesberry2001.

I don't quite know how I have managed to visit Zuisenji for 8 years and never before notice the Mrs Tiggywinkle shrine.

[for the pedants: I'm fairly sure it is supposed to be a bear not a hedgehog... Having said that, if it were Mrs Tiggywinkle it would only mean that there was more than one shrine in Kamakura sporting anime characters...
for the extra very pedants: Zuisenji is a temple (Buddhism) not a shrine (Shinto), but as Buddhism likes to blend in with local religions, it is all a bit mixed up, and some temples contain shrine-like things]

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Posted By jules to jules' pics at 3/07/2010 07:39:00 PM

[jules' pics] 3/04/2010 07:38:00 PM

heron, originally uploaded by julesberry2001.

One of our pet herons.

[鶴岡八幡宮の大池, 鎌倉 - which is a bit funny, because 鶴岡 means something like hill of the cranes, but I have never seen a crane there, despite having seen lots of black kites, herons, egrets, ducks and pigeons.]

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Posted By jules to jules' pics at 3/04/2010 07:38:00 PM

[jules' pics] 3/02/2010 09:08:00 PM

furry flower, originally uploaded by julesberry2001.

Normal programming resumed.

This is the Oriental Paperbush (Edgeworthia chrysantha, mitsumata, 三椏), and was photographed at Egaratenjin, an odd sort of a shrine with some great blossom trees, in Kamakura. All the furry bits in the middle soon open up into flowers, and the bush has a really strong jasmine-like fragrance. Ahhh....

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Posted By jules to jules' pics at 3/02/2010 09:08:00 PM

[jules' pics] Duran Duran live in Tokyo, 2010

Duran Duran live in 2010, originally uploaded by julesberry2001.

Before getting back to usual programming (flowers, bugs and toxic waste).... here is my only close-up of Simon Le Bon. I would say he's doing quite well for 52 - although a bit porky (which was very fitting given the occasion), he is able to sing in tune better than most, and the quality of his voice seemed good too.

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Posted By jules to jules' pics at 3/01/2010 05:41:00 PM