Friday, May 08, 2009

[jules' pics] 5/07/2009 06:19:00 PM


myouhonji, originally uploaded by julesberry2001.

Taken way back then (last Saturday), before we passed the catastrophic tipping point of no return which caused the Kantou plain to become forever engulfed by torrential rain. (Myouhonji, Kamakura)



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Posted By jules to jules' pics at 5/07/2009 06:19:00 PM

Thursday, May 07, 2009

[jules' pics] 5/06/2009 11:37:00 PM


Jasmine, originally uploaded by julesberry2001.

It has been raining solidly for the last 3 days. Everyone's guttering is overflowing. Today we got as far as the station but turned tail when we found that the trains were delayed by more than 3 hours. On the bright side, our Jasmine is flowering, as is the Wisteria (Yaaay!).



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Posted By jules to jules' pics at 5/06/2009 11:37:00 PM

[jules' pics] 5/06/2009 06:32:00 PM

Covering about the same area as the Schönbrunn, this must be the finest Viennese architectural landmark produced by the Republic of Austria. I like it particularly because it makes me feel all natsukashi (nostalgic) about happy times living on the Wirral peninsula in the UK, the entry to which is proudly guarded by likes of Shell and ICI. To my disappointment, however, the Viennese version does not appear to host an eternal flame.



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Posted By jules to jules' pics at 5/06/2009 06:32:00 PM

Wednesday, May 06, 2009

Let's mass panic!

It seems that the rest of the world has realised that swine flu is not (currently) a huge threat - that is, it seems basically no worse than the normal flu that people get all the time, although I'm sure it is possible that it will change into something more serious. But I had to search for it just now on the BBC news site - it doesn't seem to be on the front page at all. I bet the WHO is desperately wondering how to avoid cranking things up to the highest status of phase 6 of a global pandemic, since there are clearly secondary transmissions in numerous countries...but if they call this a 6, what can they do when there is an outbreak of something really serious in the future? Turn it up to 11? There is a hint of a climb-down in their recent insistence that all European cases are "related to" travel in N America, which may be technically true for a long time to come...

But that's just the foreigners, of course. Here in Japan there hasn't been a single case but universities have cancelled classes, there are hundreds of special "swine flu centres" being set up, hospitals are refusing admission to people who admit to knowing a foreigner (no, I'm not exaggerating) and the cabinet are preparing to hold emergency meetings to deal with the threat of the barbarian horde of viruses. We had an emergency meeting at work last week that everyone had to attend (but there was no information beyond the standard boilerplate stuff, so hardly anyone went, and it was in Japanese anyway). They haven't actually banned all travel yet, but it can't be far away.

Apparently a sneeze followed by a few words of Spanish is good for a free seat on the trains these days. Salud, amigos!

Tuesday, May 05, 2009

[jules' pics] 5/05/2009 03:54:00 PM


shoenbrunn, originally uploaded by julesberry2001.

Living in Japan I also miss the horsies. The only place you find them is the dinner table. For similar reasons I also refuse to eat octopus.



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Posted By jules to jules' pics at 5/05/2009 03:54:00 PM

More copulation

Not "climate porn" this time (that page still gets plenty of hits from disappointed googlers) but maybe it counts as finance porn?

Catching up on some podcasts, I see that "More or less" is back for another series. Those who didn't like Wired magazine's article on the "formula of doom" ["I think this is b*ll*cks" - Stoat] might prefer Tim Harford and Paul Wilmott (who both run interesting blogs) discussing the same issue in the latest program. Or maybe not, suit yourselves. I'm just the messenger. You should read their blogs anyway.

On a related topic I was relieved to see Paul mentioning the likelihood of inflation recently, this seems to barely raise a ripple these days and I was wondering if I'd got confused about the entirely predictable effects of printing money willy-nilly. But maybe the reason so few people are talking about it is that the sort of journalists who might be in a position to write about it are generally the same who are multiply mortgaged to the hilt and therefore stand to gain most from seeing their debts miraculously evaporate in a blizzard of monopoly money. Not so good for the stupid savers who have not massively overstretched themselves, but we don't count for much these days...

Monday, May 04, 2009

[jules' pics] 5/04/2009 03:57:00 PM


schönbrunn, originally uploaded by julesberry2001.

While the possibility of 700 year old trees, of which there may be several in Kamakura, is certainly something, there is a distinct lack of magnificent stone buildings. This one is the Hapsburg's summer cabin. (Schönbrunn, Vienna)



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Posted By jules to jules' pics at 5/04/2009 03:57:00 PM

[jules' pics] 5/03/2009 09:59:00 PM


Chinese, originally uploaded by julesberry2001.

I was going to pretend we stopped off in Shanghai on the way back to Japan... (but he spoiled it all).



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Posted By jules to jules' pics at 5/03/2009 09:59:00 PM

Sunday, May 03, 2009

The EGU review part 5

Thursday was Uncertainty day. Typically, this session struggles to attract enough abstracts to fill a session, is allocated a small room, and ends up being packed to the gills. It seems that everyone wants to hear about it, but no-one wants to do it - and it's not helped by the perennial absence of one or two significant groups who one might think could both benefit and contribute by attending. This year a slight change in scope (including specific foci on metrics for model evaluation, and impact studies) opened things up to a wider clientele which filled 3 sessions. It had a couple of interesting moments but I was a little underwhelmed - it seemed that a lot of people are doing the same old stuff just because they can without giving it too much thought. Sokolov presented the MIT stuff, and I couldn't resist pointing out (as I'd written here) that both the high and low values for the ocean mixing parameters he used were incompatible with what is known about ocean circulation - a point he explicitly acknowledges in the MIT report - and he didn't seem to have any adequate response. There were however a couple of interesting ideas in other talks relating to methods for multimodel analysis that I will try to follow up.

I can't remember what I went to in the 4th oral session - nothing worth writing notes about, it seems. The posters for the uncertainty session followed in the evening. My "uniform prior" poster attracted by far the most attention out of the things I was involved in. It seems that there are still plenty of people who are not aware of the issue even though I've presented it several times, which presses home the value of actually getting it published somewhere. At least one person who works in the field promised that they would not unthinkingly use uniform priors again... We had to run off to the Musikverein a bit early to see the excellent Hilary Hahn.

Friday was a very light day. Lots of people leave during the day, if not before., and there is always much less on. I looked at the millennium session which is a new area of interest for us now that the IPCC are asking for model simulations of this period. We have plans for some work, but nothing concrete, so it was useful to get up to date on what some others have done. I managed to scrounge my 4h free lunch of the week by attending a meeting that it transpired I wasn't actually invited to. Oops. But no-one really cared. After lunch there was literally nothing to go to. This was rather convenient, as I still had to write my talk for a workshop on the Saturday. This was a select assembly (sponsored by PAGES) of people interested in paleo data assimilation, that is data assimilation in the context of paleoclimate simulations and proxy data. But first, there was the famous Convenors' Party on Friday night (not that I was a convenor, but I went as jules' guest). The first rule of the party being, don't talk about the party, I can say no more.

The PAGES workshop was a really good day. It was tough after a long week but well worth it. Since I spend much of my scientific life in a niche within a niche, it is great to find that there are others (albeit few!) with similar interests and understanding, and I left feeling that maybe I'm not quite so mad after all. The new MARGO data set seems to have sparked several projects relating to climate (at least ocean) state estimation at the last glacial maximum. We (jules was also there) came out with some concrete ideas for stuff to do, which is pretty much our benchmark for a successful meeting.

As a final wind-down, we dragged ourselves to this Chinese restaurant, which was a very pleasant end to the week. The food is at least decent, and plentiful, and being able to sit out in their quiet garden on a warm evening beside a pond full of koi was a very peaceful and relaxing change from the bustle of Vienna city centre.

All in all, it was a good week, and we'll probably be back next year. Wouldn't mind a change of location - it was strongly rumoured that the meeting was going to shift to Paris, in fact this "decision" can be found on various cached pages including the EGU itself! However, it seems that the vote went for Vienna again, and it's certainly not a bad choice.

Saturday, May 02, 2009

[jules' pics] 5/02/2009 03:41:00 AM


shinryoko 1, originally uploaded by julesberry2001.

James said that one wasn't green enough to do it justice. Perhaps this is more like it. ( Zuisenji, Kamakura)



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Posted By jules to jules' pics at 5/02/2009 03:41:00 AM