Friday, April 05, 2013

[jules' pics] Probability

Wot's the probability of not getting poo'ed on if you walk under 19 pigoens?

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Posted By Blogger to jules' pics at 4/05/2013 04:04:00 PM

Martin A said...

If the probability of being pooed on by a single pigeon is 1%, so the probability of not getting pooed on by one pigeon is 0.99, then I think the probability of not getting pooed on by 19 is 0.99^19 = 83%.

James Annan said...

Ah, but that depends on whether they are correlated pigeons or independent pigeons.

It's not something I am tempted to test experimentally, in any case.

Steve Bloom said...

Speed is everything in such cases.

In any case avoid doing anything like this.

David B. Benson said...

Have they taken the class?
http://media.photobucket.com/user/heidiml/media/bird.jpg.html?filters[term]=bird poop&filters[primary]=images&filters[secondary]=videos&sort=1&o=10

D.J. Andrews said...

Domesticated pigeons poop about 4 times an hour, so you have about a 0.1% chance of being hit by one poop during the one second you're in the target zone (assuming a similar defecation rate in wild pigeons). If you were to walk under all 19 pigeons in a row (why?) your chances of surviving the gauntlet unmarked are still pretty good.

However, walking directly under a line of pigeons may spook them, and cause them to either fly or get ready to fly--and in both cases, they prepare for flight by pooping, so your chances of being marked increase considerably. They may also circle back around and put you in the firing zone again...and may bring friends with them this time.

:-)

jules said...

At last someone gives the right answer. As for why, sometimes there is little choice without a major detour. Japanese lanes are very narrow, and overhead cables adundant.

Hank Roberts said...

In other news, raccoons (imported as pets then abandoned when they grew large) are eating temples around Japan: start around 21:00 in
http://www.pbs.org/wnet/nature/episodes/raccoon-nation/full-episode/7558/

Steve Bloom said...

Hey, my answer was correct too! Just try standing still and see what happens. I double-dare you.

Maybe the yakuza can adopt the raccoons as mascots. Come to think of it, even the pigeons could have some criminal enterprise potential: "Nice hat you have there. It'd be a shame if something happened to it."

(Chrome's spellchecker has neither yakuza nor raccoons. Coincidence? I think not.)

Hank Roberts said...

> try standing still

Don't show fear by running:
http://www.guzer.com/pictures/bird_poop_kid.jpg

We were camping last week and saw a pigeon explode -- huge cloud of white feathers suddenly blown out of a tree. Shortly thereafter a peregrine flew away ...