Tuesday, December 04, 2007

The gathering storm

Piers Corbyn, 12 November:
At Weather Action we are forecasting at the frontiers of Sun-Earth weather and climate science and are 90% confident there will be a major storm in the period 24th-28th November and the public should be warned and preparations made. The main threat to Holland, as before, is sea defences which will be under attack from the North Storm Surge we predict - and the next one is likely to be worse than the last one.
(the blue ink is his)

Piers Corbyn, 15 November:

To The Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Rt Hon Mr Hilary Benn MP

Dear Hilary,

Long range severe weather warning for UK storms in period 23rd –26/27th November 2007

Further to the letter I sent at the end of October warning of impending dangerous storms – including explicit warning of threats to sea defences (especially in view of new and full moon high tides at the same times) and tornado type developments in the periods 8th-13th November and 24th-28th November I am writing with an update which can help you prepare via COBR (Cabinet Office Briefing Room) for potentially dangerous severe weather which is likely to hit the UK in the period 23rd to 26/27th November (slightly earlier timing).


Given recent confirmation of expected developments in Sun-Earth relations we are now over 90% confident that there will be major damaging storm(s) including serious risk of breaches of sea defences* in a number of parts of the UK in the period 23rd to 26/27th November and therefore it is in the public interest for those involved in Emergency Services - and the public - to be given maximum advance warning. We make this information freely available in the public interest. (* NB Full Moon 24 Nov 14.31hrs).

Piers Corbyn 20 November:
Storm Update Message from Piers Corbyn WeatherAction Tues 20th Nov 2007
The first storm wave is now showing on forecast maps for Friday 23rd/Sat 24th Nov. AS PREDICTED.
The situation is also open for the second storm wave to follow.
We repeat our warnings
1. Standard meteorology will underestimate winds and rain even from 24hours ahead particularly for forecasts of weather in period 24th to 28th Nov.
Our estimation of top gusts over 90mph very likely in the region of the storm track remains, with 100mph likely to be topped in exposed North sea/Island/and perhaps some headland parts.
2. FORECAST USERS should note our projected storm tracks and short range information for estimating top gusts in their area. From 24 hours ahead standard meteorology will probably be reasonable about storm tracks but underestimate wind strength and rain.
The core regions under threat in our long range forecast map for Storm wave 1 remain Scotland, parts of NE England and Central/South Norway and - to a lesser extent - North Denmark.
Forecast Users in Holland and Belgium please note that they were never forecasted to be in the core storm track for storm wave 1 and will not be in it. (Wave 2 is likely to be more important in wind terms for Holland and Belgium). The main threat to Holland and the East/SouthEast coast of England from storm wave 1 (and probably also storm wave 2) will be the North Sea storm surge which will coincide with a series of exceptionally high tides - close to highest possible tides on and after 24th November.

Piers Corbyn 25 November:

You are welcome to circulate this warning as you may require
Our apologies if for circulation list reasons you receive this document twice

25th/26th Nov 2007
To Emergency Services, Local Authority Risk managers, media and WeatherAction forecast users.
UPDATE on forecast period 23-28th Nov (original central highest risk period for dangerous events) - now extended to 1st/2nd Dec
[This is a 'superstorm' period in English & US usage of the word meaning it is likely to include in the most exposed parts of main storm tracks winds gusting to over 100mph (160kph) - ie resulting from Hurricane (Beaufort Force 12 ) winds]
The period is on the 304th anniversary of the devastating Tempest of 26th/27th (modern calendar) Nov 1703 in which thousands died mainly in Bristol, the South coast of England and London, and Portsmouth was destroyed. Although there are some similarities concerning solar forcing factors of storms developments, events of that magnitude are NOT forecasted for this period.
At the time of writing (25th Nov 22.00hrs), deep low pressures are developing -as forecasted - over the Atlantic and short range standard forecasts show 'dartboard' (exceptionally deep - eg 955mb*) lows. Predicted solar effects make the present period one of rapid and accelerating weather change for the whole of the north Atlantic region from Greenland to St Petersburg and from North Norway to Belgium which will often get ahead of standard meteorology forecasts.
We continue to forecast the British Isles and the North Sea area are likely to be hit (90% confidence) by a major storm(s) and associated substorms including possible tornado type events - particularly in England - starting to show from Weds/Thursday Nov 28th/29th onwards and this or these storm systems to then move into Scandinavia in an now extended period to 1st/2nd December

Piers Corbyn 1 December:

The storm now approaching is set to track on Sunday 2nd Dec through England
and into the South of the North Sea and Denmark and bring storms, damaging
winds and exceptionally heavy seas through parts of a wide area including
Ireland, Wales, England (Central, SouthWest, South, SouthEast and East Anglia),
North France (especially Cherbourg Peninsula and Normandy) , Belgium, Netherlands
and Denmark. TRAVEL is best avoided
These events are in line with WeatherAction's long range forecast for the second - 'Southerly
track' storm(s) in the extended time period to 1st/2nd Dec and the original warnings spelt out
in WeatherActions long range forecast first issued 11months ago

For those who don't know the region, the UK generally has a wet and windy period around now. The local name for this phenomenon is "winter". My own patented long-range forecasting methodology(*) enables me to exclusively reveal here, for the first time, my prediction that "winter" will return in November/December next year. With 90% probability, anyway.

(*) Sadly the margin of this blog post is too small to contain the marvellous proof of the skill of my approach.


skanky said...

It was noticeable how unusually blocked the set-up was during the time period predicted to have the big storm. It would have been difficult to get a November prediction more wrong.

EliRabett said...

Ah, looking for a bet on whether there will be an English winter in 2020 are you?