Thursday, December 05, 2019

no comment


Layzej said...

"Of course the most likely outcome - as I have said consistently for over three years now - is that we actually remain in the EU after all"


James Annan said...

yeah it's all gone a bit shit...

crandles said...
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crandles said...

I got some 'Not before 2022' at 980:1. 150:1 is currently available.

Given betfair's definitions seems to require EU treaties to cease to apply to the UK, it is quite possible that neither ratifying agreement nor end of negotiating period, 31 Jan 2020, will trigger settling of the bet and if the transition period gets extended...

100:1 currently available on July 2020 - Dec 2020 could also be value.

A clarification indicates:
"The key part of the rule is highlighted... The examples we give are only examples and how we settle this market are not limited to these. If the Withdrawal Agreement is ratified before the end of the extended [negotiating] period AND the treaties of the EU cease to apply to the UK from that date then the market will be settled on that date."

However, I am not sure I trust this. Possibly EU treaties could be deemed to have ceased to apply despite UK law effectively saying UK law will be as if such treaties continue to apply until end of the transitional period.

Hmmm. but at 300:1 or so, maybe worth a punt.

How are predictions 3 and 4 from post at start of year going?

James Annan said...

3 and 4 done! Though 3 is being written up still, aim is to submit one paper by end of year but there is more to do in future (outside the constraints of a formal contract which is completed). 4 has gone through one round of review and will be worked on after 31 Dec which is the IPCC submission deadline (hence point 3 taking precedence for us, also for many co-authors on point 4). So, not all that bad...

The meaning of brexit "happening" may vary depending on point of view :-)

My understanding is that EU treaties do not apply after 31 Jan if the WA goes through, so in that sense brexit will have happened, though it's only the let's-say-we-have-left-while-still-acting-as-members stage.

crandles said...

Going a bit deeper, (should anyone be daft enough to want to do so).

European Union (Withdrawal Agreement) Bill says

"(3) The Act of 1972 has effect on and after exit day as if —
(a)the definitions of “the Treaties” and “the EU Treaties” given by
section 1(2) to (4) (interpretation)—

(i)included Part 4 of the withdrawal agreement
(implementation period), other than that Part so far as it
relates to, or could be applied in relation to, the
Common Foreign and Security Policy, but
(ii) were otherwise limited to anything which falls within
those definitions as at immediately before exit day so far
as it is not excluded by regulations made on or after exit
day by a Minister of the Crown under this sub-

There is no practical difference between this saying the treaties "do apply" and the wording above which might be interpreted as saying they cease to apply but UK law will be such that it is "as if" they apply. My experience is that betfair takes a form over substance approach. So this isn't looking good for the interpretation I want.

OTOH I could point to the earlier
"(2)The European Communities Act 1972, as it has effect in domestic law or
the law of a relevant territory immediately before exit day, continues to
have effect in domestic law or the law of the relevant territory on and
after exit day so far as provided by subsections (3) to (5)."

where 'continues to have effect in domestic law' looks more promising.

I have no idea which way it will go, but at long odds it might be worth a punt. I make money whichever way it goes as long as we don't exit this year for which there is no time to get the legislation though.