Monday, September 23, 2019

My latest brexit prediction

Thought I'd better make a prediction before tomorrow's verdict: the Supreme Court will rule the matter justiciable, it will furthermore conclude that Johnson lied to the Queen, but it will not demand a specific solution such as reopening parliament or declaring that the prorogation was null and void. This option was not even discussed on the "Talking Politics" podcast I listened to over the weekend, and since they've reliably got everything else wrong about brexit for the past three years, it's a slam dunk.

No, honestly, though I do think it's a plausible outcome I wouldn't attach a very high probability to being right on this. The story of brexit has been one of unpredictable twists and turns, even if the final outcome is amply summed up in this pie chart:

And here's some more twitter fun:

Probably takes a click to make the gifs/videos play. [Oh, the second one doesn't seem to work. That's a shame. Well, it was just a long list of brexiters pretending everything was going to be great a couple of years ago, and now pretending that they never claimed it was going to be great. Just the usual lying liars lying.]

Oh how I long for the days when a PM syphoning off 100k of public money to one of their mistresses qualified as a proper scandal. These days it barely rates a mention on the BBC, and only then after people have baited them for a day over why they haven't covered it.

Meanwhile the Labour party conference has managed to create an outcome that is even worse than anyone imagined possible, not merely sitting on the implausible brexit unicorn fence but choosing to do so through a show-of-hands vote that many think was called the wrong way or at least too close to call without a proper count. What a shambles.

At least the LibDems have got there finally. I can snark at how long it took them to get there but they are still well ahead of the other two parties.


William M. Connolley said...

I'm glad you did this cos I get to write down that I agree re justicability (on the cynical grounds that I think the supremes will correctly think this is an excellent chance to extend their remit) and that they probably won't say anything that will cause important change (which is all rather moot now anyway). I'm mildly doubtful about the lying to the queen bit on the weak grounds that they might prefer to leave her out of it; OTOH they might want to put the boot into Bojo (who wouldn't) in something with no particular consequences.

James Annan said...

Oh well. I nearly called it perfectly but in fact the prorogation is null and void. Perhaps time for a sneaky edit?

jules said...

Don't worry - you did much better than the experts!!!!!!!!

James Annan said...

To be precise, they also didn't quite say that he lied to the Queen (of course they have no way of knowing exactly what he said) but they did say his advice was unlawful. So it's fair to assume he actually did lie and they believe he lied. But it wasn't in the judgement.

crandles said...

Someone elsewhere asked is there any plausible scenario where british people are not totally stuffed without even a reasonable chance of recovery within 3 years.

Hmm, what do we need:

Hung parliament
BoJo no confidence
Corbyn no confidence
Swinson puts together a deal accepting labour policies on brexit and a few other areas
Corbyn (not done a suitable deal and too old to fight next election) resigns
A50 extension for more negotiation and referendum
Customs Union brexit negotiated
CU brexit or Remain referendum, Remain wins
Country and Tories accept will of people in latest referendum
BoJo steps aside so Remainer can lead party
New Labour leader falls out with Swinson leading to No Confidence
Sensible general election result

Oh yes, the question required plausible .....

Does some complicated comprehensive calculation to estimate probability of these 12 things happening being around 0.002%

Well maybe that probability estimate is somewhere around plausible ? :P :-[ >:( ;)