Wednesday, September 13, 2017 Winton betting market

There could be something paywalled in the FT about this, the global warming policy foundation forum farce have copied a bit and managed to post a quote from somewhere saying
"A leading global warming expert believes that the latest UN warning on man-made climate change is a "big gamble" as temperatures have not increased since 1997"
Not really much of an expert then.

I heard about the Winton thing at the AGU, where Mark Roulston had a poster in the betting and finance session. Good to heard it’s progressing.

Thanks to Victor Venema I've seen the full article which seems entirely reasonable and doesn't contain the GWPF quote anywhere, so I guess they just randomly stuck it on to make themselves look ridiculous.

Edit: the actual site seems to be here though not functional as yet.


William M. Connolley said...

So are they serious about the "market"; and what form might it take? Only long-term futures, or year-to-year; just temperature (global?) or sea ice; etc.

James Annan said...

Yes, it was an intelligently thought-out plan. From memory it was going to be (something like) a joint CO2-temperature thing, with punters able to place bets on any combination of the two. There's some interesting theory on how it's possible to set up and ensure adequate liquidity in such a market for a relatively modest (bounded) outlay, they were thinking of doing it as a philanthropic rather than money-making exercise.

Layzej said...

CNBC reports and may not be paywalled (though they aren't a fan of ad blockers):

crandles said...

Winton plans to open the market to climate scientists at universities later this year. Next year, it will expand the project to allow anyone in the United Kingdom to participate.

This article seems to be talking about real money betting. (Has a link to guardian article 1/8/16 mentioning you.)
The Winton Climate Prediction Market is a play-money prototype where individuals can trade binary contracts based on future global climate events.

Play money or is that only for prototype?

James Annan said...

Yes they are definitely aiming to do real money but I think they've been practising with play money to start with.