Monday, May 12, 2014

A sensitive subject

I know I said previously that I wasn't keen on participating in a ClimateDialogue on climate sensitivity, but the organisers recently repeated their invitation with a rather more interesting and relevant (IMO) group of participants. So this time I agreed to take part (it's also timed less inconveniently, though last week I was busy so my initial comments on the other blogs are rather brief). The blogs are now up, and comments about the technical content are probably better directed there. Accusations of hypocrisy (or worse) are welcome here, however :-)


EliRabett said...

Alzheimers means that Eli has forgotten his open sesame, however buried in your fine comment, is the assumption that there is a sensitivity and that it is our uncertainty that sets the range, but to be honest, you actually trim this more than a bit..

IEHO, the situation might be much better described by an ensemble model, where each member of the ensemble is correct for certain set of forcings, e.g. there is no unique value, but a range of values amongst which we will select by our actions and the responses of the earth system. Of course, our understanding of the system response in each case has an uncertainty, but perhaps the physical ensemble (given a thousand earths) is a better way of thinking about this

William M. Connolley said...

O/T, but I don't seem to have a current email for you:

In the unlikely event that you care:

jules said...

I care - the disk brake thing is the most useful thing James has done! Wonder why someone deleted it.

James Annan said...

Well I'm not really that interested in fighting wiki wars over my own page (correcting errors aside).