Saturday, March 26, 2011

More transport plumes

Ignacio has been busy generating more analyses of the transport around Fukushima.

The first plot here is the transport from Fukushima based on NCEP winds, I think this was for about one week ago, maybe 17-19 March, and it doesn't look like it includes anything detailed about concentrations, just an idealised calculation showing the direction of travel:

And this second picture is not a west-travelling plume, but rather a back-calculation showing where the air in Tokyo (at 23:00 on 26 March) will have come from, with the colour coding representing age (eg some of the air was near the China coast 24h previously to arriving in Tokyo):

So we can still expect most of whatever is floating around up there around the reactors, to be heading out to sea. On the other hand, obviously some stuff has spread inland. I wonder if the reality may be a little more diffusive than this modelling suggests...

1 comment:

Steve Bloom said...

Near-surface winds seem like a possible explanation. Does NCEP get those right or even include them?