Ignacio has been busy generating more analyses of the transport around Fukushima.
The first plot here is the transport from Fukushima based on NCEP winds, I think this was for about one week ago, maybe 17-19 March, and it doesn't look like it includes anything detailed about concentrations, just an idealised calculation showing the direction of travel:
And this second picture is not a west-travelling plume, but rather a back-calculation showing where the air in Tokyo (at 23:00 on 26 March) will have come from, with the colour coding representing age (eg some of the air was near the China coast 24h previously to arriving in Tokyo):
So we can still expect most of whatever is floating around up there around the reactors, to be heading out to sea. On the other hand, obviously some stuff has spread inland. I wonder if the reality may be a little more diffusive than this modelling suggests...
The first plot here is the transport from Fukushima based on NCEP winds, I think this was for about one week ago, maybe 17-19 March, and it doesn't look like it includes anything detailed about concentrations, just an idealised calculation showing the direction of travel:
And this second picture is not a west-travelling plume, but rather a back-calculation showing where the air in Tokyo (at 23:00 on 26 March) will have come from, with the colour coding representing age (eg some of the air was near the China coast 24h previously to arriving in Tokyo):So we can still expect most of whatever is floating around up there around the reactors, to be heading out to sea. On the other hand, obviously some stuff has spread inland. I wonder if the reality may be a little more diffusive than this modelling suggests...
1 comment:
Near-surface winds seem like a possible explanation. Does NCEP get those right or even include them?
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