Yet more sensitivity

This really does seem to be the story that runs and runs...here's another article in the NYT recently, this time by Justin Gillis, who summarises my views accurately (take note David Rose)

There is also this paragraph, which piqued my interest:

Several scientists say they see reasons to doubt that these lowball estimates will in fact stand up to critical scrutiny, and a wave of papers offering counterarguments is already in the works. “The story is not over,” said Chris E. Forest, a climate expert at Pennsylvania State University. 

I don't have any idea what the "wave of papers" is, although the recent splash about increased ocean heat uptake might have some impact. But several people - Forest prominent among them - have argued for some time that the models already take up too much heat, which suggests to me that while the new data on this might help to close the gap, it is unlikely to show models not mixing enough (which would be one route to arguing that sensitivity is actually high).

[jules' pics] Temples

We did a fair bit of templing while on unicorn safari, but weren't lucky enough to spot any more.
Here's ye olde village church.

And although it would be poetic if this was taken inside the same church, unfortunately that church was locked. Instead this is just one of Bath Abbey's many windows. Don't see much stained glass in Japan. In fact our temples don't contain much glass at all. I suppose this explains how the dragons get in.

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Posted By Blogger to jules' pics at 5/10/2013 11:41:00 AM

[jules' pics] "summer" ?

It isn't just the Unicorns. Like Werewolves and the moon, British people become insane as soon as they see sunshine. Oblivious to the fact it is still actually rather cold, as soon as that pale yellow watery thing shines in their palid blue sky they switch off the heating and open all the windows. This must surely be a contributing factor to why we are presently not merely working from home, but working from bed. With 'flu. Still, it's not all bad. It is actually truly sunny and warm in Kamakura, and it is surely a good idea to get 'flu every decade or so to keep one's immunity up.

Here's some of that dangerous so called "sunshine".

River

Inner city housing If you prefer postcardism to buddhism, you might prefer this one.

Temple

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Posted By Blogger to jules' pics at 5/08/2013 05:33:00 PM

Another survey

Along with many other blogs, I've been asked by John Cook to post a link, which I am doing along with the accompanying blurb so you can see what it is about:

As one of the more highly trafficked climate blogs on the web, I’m seeking your assistance in conducting a crowd-sourced online survey of peer-reviewed climate research. I have compiled a database of around 12,000 papers listed in the 'Web Of Science' between 1991 to 2011 matching the topic 'global warming' or 'global climate change'. I am now inviting readers from a diverse range of climate blogs to peruse the abstracts of these climate papers with the purpose of estimating the level of consensus in the literature regarding the proposition that humans are causing global warming. If you’re interested in having your readers participate in this survey, please post the following link to the survey:

http://survey.gci.uq.edu.au/survey.php?c=ITUTR1MY7NSE

The survey involves rating 10 randomly selected abstracts and is expected to take 15 minutes. Participants may sign up to receive the final results of the survey (de-individuated so no individual's data will be published). No other personal information is required (and email is optional). Participants may elect to discontinue the survey at any point and results are only recorded if the survey is completed. Participant ratings are confidential and all data will be de-individuated in the final results so no individual ratings will be published.

The analysis is being conducted by the University of Queensland in collaboration with contributing authors of the website Skeptical Science. The research project is headed by John Cook, research fellow in climate communication for the Global Change Institute at the University of Queensland.

The great David Rose con no. 9234: The hard proof that finally shows that he makes stuff up.

I know that in this context, late is probably little better than never, but the Daily Lies has now corrected Rose's fabrication concerning my opinions.

The modified article no longer has the offending content, and at the bottom they have added:

An earlier version of this article said climate scientist James Annan was predicting the true rate of global warming as about half that predicted by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2007. In fact the UN’s prediction was a probable warming range of 2°C- 4.5°C if CO2 levels double, with a most likely figure of 3°C. Dr Annan now predicts a range of 2°C- 4°C with 2.5°C most likely. We are happy to set the record straight.

Which is good enough for me.

[jules' pics] Ringfencing the Unicorn

It's golden week, a very busy time for travel and tourism in Japan. So we felt quite lucky to get the last two places on the West of England Unicorn Safari. It turns out that unicorns in the UK aren't much more rare than dragons in Kamakura.



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Posted By Blogger to jules' pics at 5/02/2013 06:09:00 PM

[jules' pics] Kamakura colour

While we were away, Kamakura sprung into green and other bright colours.









Meanwhile, Hachimangu pond has been having a bit of a 'mare. It is making glugging noises and is full of men getting trenchfoot. I wonder if it sprung a leak, and what they did with all the carp before it was drained. The other question is whether it take two decades to get fixed, as happened with Yokohama railway station refurbishments. In protest, the pond-side wisteria have refused to flower properly this year.

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Posted By Blogger to jules' pics at 4/28/2013 08:56:00 PM

[jules' pics] IIASA

Finally the big day came and we jumped into a taxi and headed for IIASA. It is located in a palace in a village a bit outside Vienna, called Laxenburg. At IIASA they do all sorts of things like global energy and population as well as working out the effects of climate change. They asked us lots of challenging questions during our seminars, which were a lot of fun to try and answer.

They have all mod cons onsite to help them achieve their lofty goals.

1. Church


2. Restaurant


3. Palace
Rather excitingly, the palace doesn't have or need air conditioning despite very hot summers (38C). James' theory was that (unlike Japan) it cools down at night, so the massive thick walls never really heat up all summer. There were also high ceilings which might have helped airflow in some mysterious way.

4. Pretty offices!

Clearly some effort is required to make JAMSTEC as habitable. Perhaps we could start by painting mountains on the grey walls.

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Posted By Blogger to jules' pics at 4/26/2013 08:54:00 PM

[jules' pics] Sunday running

Last Sunday James went for a run in the rain around a concrete military base. Having done the AGU "fun run" in torrential rain I had no inclination to repeat the experience, so stayed at home. The previous Sunday, however, we both got to enjoy seeing some real runners in the sunshine, with the backdrop of Viennese architecture. They passed very near our hotel at about 8km.


And again just after halfway, by which time Haile Gebrselassie, who won the half marathon would have already collected his medal. For the marathon itself, the man with number 1 on his chest (Henry Sugut) eventually did the decent thing and came in 1st place.




Here are the fastest wimmin just after halfway. By the end F10 (Flomena Cheyech) was quite a long way in the lead.


The marathon was cleverly arranged to go around the town centre making it easy to cut across and get to any bit of the course before the runners. ...although some might argue that this made all that running rather futile.


We hung around in the sun until the funny shaped white men started stumbling past


However, as James pointed out, about 10 percent of them didn't seem to be in too much pain. He claims that he will be one of them one day. At 2km to go their legs weren't getting very far off the ground.


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Posted By Blogger to jules' pics at 4/25/2013 10:19:00 PM

Sagamihara Half Marathon

Today was the day of the "International Friendship Marathon" at Sagami General Depot (one of the numerous mysterious grey areas full of khaki-clothed foreigners around this region on google maps - but don't worry, I'm not really giving away any secrets, it's all officially on line here).

There was not a real marathon on offer (a Japanese "marathon" is basically any long mass-participation run) but there was a half (also a 5km and 10km, the second of which jules had entered), and I was hoping to improve on my previous effort.

The couple of weeks before, we were in Vienna, with neither bicycles nor a handy 10km run to work, but we did have a canal within easy reach so I went there each morning for a jog before the conference. At least, that was the plan, but extreme fatigue set in after a few days. I also managed a very pleasant 18km along the Donauinsel on the morning of the Vienna Marathon (which of course we had been far too late to enter even if we'd wanted to, with our travel plans only extended over the weekend at rather short notice). Along with several longer runs in the previous month or two I thought I was generally better prepared than last time, though the recent long journeys and jet lag had interfered with this a bit.

I was worried about the heat which was possible at this time of year, but it turned out cold and rainy. In fact it was so wet and miserable that jules decided not to go for her 10km which was scheduled for an early start, but it was forecast to ease up in time for my run so I trudged off by myself in the downpour more in hope than expectation. There was a big queue to get through the security at the gate (as was complained about a few years ago). Usually I'm pretty sceptical of security theatre, but under the circumstances I can hardly complain this time. I got through in about 30 mins, but the queue was growing rapidly behind me.

The 10km was underway when I arrived, and indeed most of the runners didn't seem to be having that much fun in the conditions. However, the rain did ease off as promised, and by the time I had taken my place at the start 10 mins before the gun, it had almost stopped, though it was still pretty cold. And then they put the start back by 15 mins to let more people get in. Oh well, at least we were well rested, and it's probably sensible to start off gently warming up for the first couple of km.

The run went well and I finished in 1:26:53 (by my watch - no official times yet) [update - results are in, I got an official clock time of 27:07 and an elapsed time of 1:26:56, putting me exactly 20th out of just over 1000 in my decade class and 102 out of 3146 overall]. I was pleased to take more than 2 mins off my previous mark. It didn't seem too hard - I even decided to pick the pace up from the 18km mark, which lasted all of 500m before I blew up horribly :-) But it was nothing like my previous half marathon when my legs more or less stopped working towards the end. Presumably the longer runs made the difference.

The promised American-style food after was a little bit disappointing, with some stalls apparently out of food. I only found BBQ ribs, pork skewers and chicken. I had the ribs which were good, but I had been hoping for a juicy burger with a hot-dog on the side, neither of which was anywhere to be found. Of course the whole site would have been more fun if it wasn't sopping wet. The course was about 99.9% tarmac but the tents and stalls were all on grassy (muddy) fields. Overall it was a well-organised event that I'd certainly be happy to enter again, though the poor people who didn't get through security in time might feel differently.

Pictures weren't allowed on site, not that stopped plenty of people with their mobile phones. But it wasn'y very photogenic, especially since jules wasn't there to take pics of me running. So here are some azaleas from the walk home:

Oh, and just to prove I do occasionally get both feet off the ground together, the official photographer's shot at the finish: