Wednesday, January 02, 2019

Predictions

Tim Harford says that the act of making predictions makes for better people (based on this paper). I've always enjoyed making predictions so I suppose I should be pretty wonderful by now. Hmmm...well in fairness he was only suggesting an association not a guarantee. In the hope of improving myself a little further, I offer the following:

  1. Brexit won't happen (p=0.95).
  2. I will run a time (just!) under 2:45 at Manchester marathon (p=0.6).
  3. Jules and I will finish off the rather delayed work with Thorsten and Bjorn (p=0.95).
  4. We will also submit a highly impactful paper in collaboration with many others (p=0.85).
  5. 2019 will be warmer than most years this century so far (p=0.75 - not the result of any real analysis).
  6. The level of CO2 in the atmosphere will increase (p=0.999).