Sunday, May 16, 2010

Barbecue summer - the sequel!

Oh, I suppose I shouldn't poke fun. Having got their fingers burnt last year - or perhaps I should say, having had their parade thoroughly rained on - the UK Met Office is declining to offer public forecasts, but is still doing "experimental" research on seasonal prediction and has obviously given a nod and a wink to the author of this Times article.

Of course we all know how the last "barbecue summer" turned out:

“Well, let’s put it this way. I’ve put my barbecue in the shed,” Dave says. “I don’t want it to get any rustier.”

I'm going to be in the UK for a chunk of the summer, so I hope they have got it right this time.

I am reminded that earlier this year, the BBC put out its weather contract to tender. Rumour has it that the esteemed Piers Corbyn, in a change of focus from his current work in volcano and earthquake prediction (no I'm not joking on that bit), is putting in a strong bid.


skanky said...

They may have tipped him the wink, but maybe as likely he just went to their website and looked at the model output:

crandles said...

Well since weather prediction and volcanoes have been mentioned...

The Romm bet included

"that if two or more volcanic eruptions with the energy level equal to or greater than the 1991 Mount Pinatubo shall occur between now and the end of 2020, then all bets are voided."

Is there much risk of ash from less explosive volcanoes changing albedo and lowering melting point of arctic sea ice?

The prevailing wind from Eyjafjallajökull seems to be away from the Arctic sea ice. So high rate of melt recently probably has nothing to do with ash and more to do with high extent a few weeks ago.

Just wondering if you should have negotiated an exemption for yourself in return for allowing an exemption for volcanoes with cooling effects.

David B. Benson said...

crandles --- Low VEI volcanos put little or no aerosols into the stratosphere.

Steve Bloom said...

It's interesting that the CPC is funding this work.

James Annan said...

I read that as merely meaning they agreed with the prediction.

James Annan said...


Well it would be disappointing to lose for that reason, but I'm happy to fold in the risk of volcanic ash into the bet.

Antiquated Tory said...

Mr Annan,
If you will be in Devon in early July (possible, I guess, Met office there now) I would be honored to stand you a pint.
(I mostly just lurk around here and occassionaly post an irrelevance/rise to troll bait in the bunny warren).

James Annan said...

Thanks for the kind offer, but I won't be in the UK until August.