Warmer! Cooler! Cooler! Warmer! Let's call the whole decadal prediction thing off!
No, I don't really think people should stop trying to make these sorts of predictions - they are a great way to actually demonstrate and test the scientific principles that underly their creation - but I do think that plenty of scepticism is warranted in their claims. As for myself, I'm sticking with "about the same as before" for my prediction of the future trend - with some as-yet unspecified uncertainty bounds :-)
No, I don't really think people should stop trying to make these sorts of predictions - they are a great way to actually demonstrate and test the scientific principles that underly their creation - but I do think that plenty of scepticism is warranted in their claims. As for myself, I'm sticking with "about the same as before" for my prediction of the future trend - with some as-yet unspecified uncertainty bounds :-)
3 comments:
Shouldn't the discussion be about "warmerer" vs "less warmer"? The language is not well suited for second derivatives.
i agree it's important to not obscure the fact that all these predictions are for temporary deviations from the long-term CO2-forced warming trend. However Keenlyside did actually predict cooling in absolute terms (not that anyone believes them).
About the same as yesterday is the safest weather forecast also
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