Yet more on decadal prediction and record temperatures

There's an interesting post up on RC, but I'm not convinced by it. I commented on a predecessor of that work a few years ago, which I think is very interesting in terms of our understanding of the behaviour of complex dynamical systems but rather over-sold inasmuch as how relevant it is to quantitative prediction of the climate system.

To expand on that a little: the research outlined there points to qualitative changes in the climate's behaviour which (they think) might affect temperature trends, but their analysis cannot (that I'm aware of) determine the magnitude of these natural trends. Thus, while this process may help to explain the somewhat sharp corners in the temperature record, there is no implication that it actually explains a substantial portion of the observed trends. (As an aside, the sharp corners aren't really that sharp and hardly need explaining anyway, over and above the forced response and a spot of interannual variability). In fact, when they applied their analysis to a GCM in that 2007 research, they found the method worked just the same, and explained small changes in trend of about 0.05C/decade - roughly 1/4 - 1/3 of the recent forced trend, so nothing like enough to cause a cooling or even a halt in the forced warming. Of course the model might not be quite the same as the real climate, but in many respects they are pretty good.

So I'm a little surprised by Kyle Swanson's post in which he seems to be proposing that the climate has been flat-lining since 1998 due to this natural effect. For starters, global warming hasn't actually stopped, and the red line on his graph that I've copied below is just an arbitrarily-drawn line that has no possible connection to any linear fit that I can see.
The green trend line of 0.1C/decade is fitted to 1979-1997, and although he says "no cherry picking here" it is clearly biased low relative to other trends he could have used. I think 0.15C/decade is a more reasonable estimate of the forced trend, there is no evidence for any major change in this post 1998 and I don't expect to see any such major change. (I also queried the IPCC's prediction of an increased warming rate over the next 30 years back when they were crafting their report, as I see no evidence for that either).

So the lines are pretty much junk, I'm afraid (I'm not particularly bothered by their representation of Smith et al - I'd agree that a warming rate of 0.3C/decade doesn't seem very likely). But there's more...there seems to be an El Nino on the way. Following last year's strong La Nina episode, the Nino indices are trending positive, and the forecasts are more or less in agreement (though not universally so) in pointing to at least a moderate El Nino right through the coming winter. Eg see here for a recent summary and forecasts. Of course it might not be a bumper event and might not result in the temperature breaking the 1998 record (next year would probably be the one to look out for, as the temperature anomaly seems to lag the El Nino itself). But it would not surprise me to see Swanson's prognostication of no rise in temperatures proven wrong rather sooner than 2020.

Update
I see that Tamino has said some pretty similar things. But not identical, so go and read his post.