The gathering storm (2)

I see that Piers Corbyn has started to make a bit of a habit of predicting the future, ie actually issuing forecasts prior to their validation time. While this is potentially a much more impressive feat than his previous habit of painting Texas bullseyes round the handful of events that happened to coincide with statements, selected a posteriori, that he claimed to have made some time somewhere in private, it is also riskier when repeated hysterical claims of devastation fail to be borne out. On with the game...

On the 2nd Dec he said:

Two more serious storm periods are forecast by WeatherAction for December:- Around
5th-9th and around 23rd to 26th. The 23rd-26th is likley to include storms as severe or
more severe than this one.

"this one" referred to an existing storm that he described as having "damaging winds and exceptionally heavy seas"

On the 25th Dec he said:

Update of Forecast of Storm activity during the period Dec 23^rd/24^th to 25^th/26^{th .}

^{The current situation is interesting and present forecast maps (noon 24 Dec) are not yet showing developments which are likely to occur.}

[...]

the Christmas storm is likely to be more severe and potentially more damaging –particularly to Western parts of Britain (and Europe) - than anything experienced this November / December so far or since the storms of 1987 or 1990. The Christmas storm also coincides with full moon high tides on 24^th December hence sea defences will be threatened.

Storm activity in the Atlantic and the Western British Isles is expected build up from the West from 19^th December and become significantly more ferocious and then pass through Britain during the period 23^rd/24^th to 25^th/26^th . Tornado activity is likely – probably in the South, and storm tide surges likely eg on the South coast and Bristol Channel and/or France – threatening sea defences. Top winds on land or coast in the 65mph- 95mph are likely, with higher winds associated with Storm 11 or Hurricane force 12 at sea.

Winds will be damaging, travel will be disrupted and power lines are likely to be bought down in places so it may be advisable for some in exposed parts to cook early for Christmas.

The Christmas storm will be followed after a lull by another stormy system attacking from the West just before the New Year.

Snow at Xmas?

The Great Christmas storm is likely to bring colder air from the North later so Piers Corbyn and associates with WeatherAction have staked £500 with William Hill for snow on Christmas day in parts of Scotland.

Oh dear.

I see that he is now talking about -17C temperatures in January, perhaps in the hope that this will distract people from remembering what he was saying just a few days ago.

The average temperature for January as a whole will be close to
freezing - 0.8C (33.4F) at best.

I look forward to seeing how that one pans out.

Update 8 Jan

Well Piers has sent out a rambling grumble that the press have over-hyped his prediction for January. Apparently he didn't say it was going to be one of the coldest Januaries in the past 100 years, he merely said it was going to be one of the coldest 6 Januaries in the past 100 years. Of course he has my full sympathies over this dreadful misrepresentation. It must be awful to have the press turn your words round to mean something so completely different... Their report of his actual temperature prediction above stands unchallenged.

Interestingly, the BBC monthly weather review is up for December, and inexplicably there is no mention of this dreadful Christmas storm that Piers "correctly" predicted. Perhaps everyone was cowering indoors and unable to take the measurements :-)

And finally, Piers has helpfully told us that January will probably have a spell of bitingly cold Easterly winds. I'll top that with my own personal prediction that January 2018 will also have such a spell...anyone want to bet?