tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post1072697633545070015..comments2024-02-15T04:42:41.606+00:00Comments on James' Empty Blog: The gathering storm (2)James Annanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-52349641007820042312008-01-16T01:35:00.000+00:002008-01-16T01:35:00.000+00:00Continued on this post...Continued on <A HREF="http://julesandjames.blogspot.com/2008/01/corbynwatch.html" REL="nofollow">this post</A>...James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-12618819600539571082008-01-15T17:50:00.000+00:002008-01-15T17:50:00.000+00:00Apart from the actual temperature figures predicte...Apart from the actual temperature figures predicted by Piers there are one or two other points of note in the 'WeatherAction' forecast for January issued on 29 December: "Generally drier than normal", "Weekends ... 19th/20th Blizzards and drifting snow especially in South/East Bitter wind" "Overalls Precipitation well below norm." Evidently Piers is ahead of the Met Office again regarding snow this weekend!!brian in the tamar valleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13475701925894027724noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-89612500990146610662008-01-15T08:22:00.000+00:002008-01-15T08:22:00.000+00:00Temp. updateIt's (nigh on) exactly half way throug...Temp. update<BR/><BR/>It's (nigh on) exactly half way through the month and the average pseudo-CET now reads ~5.9 °C, i.e. ~1.7 °C above Jan mean CET. Which all means that the temp will have to average about –6 °C for the rest of the month to meet PC's forecast. And the chances of that (according to the current medium-range forecast)? Rearrange to form a well-known saying: "in chance snowball's a hell". In fact, the pseudo-CET looks to be heading above +6 °C.P. Lewishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08586624400531767627noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-80555260323233204442008-01-10T16:13:00.000+00:002008-01-10T16:13:00.000+00:00The monthly forecasts from Corbyn can be found her...The monthly forecasts from Corbyn can be found <A HREF="http://www.lowefo.com/pdf/" REL="nofollow">here</A>.<BR/>For the Netherlands he wants us to go skating an <A HREF="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elfstedentocht" REL="nofollow"> Elfstedentocht</A> by the end of the month.Henk L.https://www.blogger.com/profile/17360772308804990206noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-8579715184427552502008-01-10T11:24:00.000+00:002008-01-10T11:24:00.000+00:00"Looking at the data and forecast, I wonder if it ..."<I>Looking at the data and forecast, I wonder if it might actually end up as one of the warmest Januaries ...</I>"<BR/><BR/>That had crossed my mind, too. Another 10 days and ...P. Lewishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08586624400531767627noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-11330456326755254592008-01-10T11:14:00.000+00:002008-01-10T11:14:00.000+00:00Of course, the error bars on his forecast could be...<I>Of course, the error bars on his forecast could be +/–6°C!</I><BR/><BR/>Fortunately not, the 0.8C average value was clearly presented as an <I>upper bound</I>, which also tallies with the <A HREF="http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/CR_data/Daily/HadCET_act.txt" REL="nofollow">CET data</A> for the year 1987, which he specifically mentioned in his later email.<BR/><BR/>Looking at the data and forecast, I wonder if it might actually end up as one of the <I>warmest</I> Januaries...but I'm not going to predict that now. 6C would put it in the top 10.James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-6534525831785051982008-01-10T09:22:00.000+00:002008-01-10T09:22:00.000+00:00Yes. Spectacular failure looks likely given the cu...Yes. Spectacular failure looks likely given the current medium-range forecast (10 days or so) ... that or a final week/10 days where the average daily temp will currently have to be –10°C or so over that week to meet his target.<BR/><BR/>Of course, the error bars on his forecast could be +/–6°C!P. Lewishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08586624400531767627noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-36328016399532383122008-01-10T04:45:00.000+00:002008-01-10T04:45:00.000+00:00Thanks, that's an interesting link. So judging fro...Thanks, that's an interesting link. So judging from the current data and forecast, Piers is in line for a spectacular bust by about 5C, maybe even more.James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-53307265065444656842008-01-10T01:32:00.000+00:002008-01-10T01:32:00.000+00:00Pseudo-CET temperature tracker<A HREF="http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=cet;sess=" REL="nofollow">Pseudo-CET temperature tracker</A>P. Lewishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08586624400531767627noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-3354199782227913672008-01-07T07:30:00.000+00:002008-01-07T07:30:00.000+00:00He has actually sent out an email attempting to ro...He has actually sent out an email attempting to row back on some of the hype - I will update the post shortly.James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-13963554398489681432008-01-05T14:21:00.000+00:002008-01-05T14:21:00.000+00:00Although my blog isn't totally devoted to matters ...Although my blog isn't totally devoted to matters meteorological I find myself continually making entries relating to Piers. It's interesting to note from his press releases that the hype originates from him - it's not a tabloid add-on! His use of font sizes, vocabulary and colour doesn't inspire one to believe that here is a rational scientist.<BR/><BR/>His predictions for January in the UK aren't looking too promising at the moment. However such is the volatility of our weather that a short freeze can easily happen. After his apocalyptic prophecies for December I think he is in the 'last chance saloon' if he is going to get any credence at all. As of now he has just 26 days to get it right - I won't hold my breath!brian in the tamar valleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13475701925894027724noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-85398022392582334492008-01-04T22:06:00.000+00:002008-01-04T22:06:00.000+00:00The -17C figure is clearly tied to Corbyn in at le...The -17C figure is clearly tied to Corbyn in at least 2 news articles (<A HREF="http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,,2233954,00.html" REL="nofollow">here's another</A>). To be fair, this seems like a warning of the lowest end of the range rather than a definite prediction, but the average of zero over the whole month is a firm prediction.James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-51942490048402383012008-01-04T17:12:00.000+00:002008-01-04T17:12:00.000+00:00Ah! I caught a –17°C in someone else's (...Ah! I caught a –17°C in someone else's (honest, guv) Daily Express headline earlier this week about a "freezing forecast" early in the new year. Is that the source, do you know? (Would figure, I guess.) Having checked the Met Office website I concluded the Daily Express's –17°C must have related to the summit of Ben Nevis.P. Lewishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08586624400531767627noreply@blogger.com