Do any of the warmers want to bet that European tree rings in the very warm year of 2003 did not show very wide rings such as predicted by the MBH assumption of a linear relationship between temperature and ring width?
Or that Sheep Mountain bristle ring widths in the period 1990-2005 were as wide or wider than projected by a linear model - we can define the model, but essentially it’s the linear assumption of MBH.
I’ll bet either.
I'd be happy to play any part I can in negotiating reasonable terms for a bet based on what the various protagonists have stated in the literature and elsewhere. Eg, I presume Steve M would expect (next to) no correlation between temperature and ring width, hence no trend over the last 20 years (or whatever). Whereas those who do the reconstructions presumably expect to find a linear trend of a certain size, as determined by their previous calibrations. So there should be plenty of room to split the difference and define a bet that is highly attractive to both sides. Bring it on!