tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post115586546754431853..comments2024-02-15T04:42:41.606+00:00Comments on James' Empty Blog: Steve McIntyre's bet offerJames Annanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-91783600883937494612011-06-02T06:57:20.471+01:002011-06-02T06:57:20.471+01:00Um...I don't think it went anywhere. Which, if...Um...I don't think it went anywhere. Which, if true, is a shame.James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-57329714823568635612011-05-30T21:56:39.542+01:002011-05-30T21:56:39.542+01:00how did this bet work out?how did this bet work out?empedoclesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-78356394236681574172007-10-20T00:43:00.000+01:002007-10-20T00:43:00.000+01:00dano,A year later it seems that SM has indeed gone...dano,<BR/><BR/>A year later it seems that SM has indeed gone out into the field and taken some tree cores, in the U.S. Note his October 12th, 2007 post on Climate Audit.DWPittellihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02809996471988559374noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-1156163288916219342006-08-21T13:28:00.000+01:002006-08-21T13:28:00.000+01:00Dano,Even eliciting the (possible) bet can be inte...Dano,<BR/><BR/>Even eliciting the (possible) bet can be interesting in itself, as I found with "<A HREF="http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/research/d5/jdannan/betting.html" REL="nofollow">as likely to cool as warm, so long as I'm offered 50:1 odds</A>" Lindzen :-)<BR/><BR/>You may have realised that SM wasn't really very sceptical in his bet offer - even to a true believer, the probability of the rings being at all lower than the linear prediction is 50%, same as being higher. If he was confident that the rings showed no relationship, he should be prepared to make a much better offer. That's what I tried to allude to in my last paragraph.<BR/><BR/>But even if his "offer" was more showmanship than meaningful, there are still no counter-proposals from the ringers so far. I'm disappointed....James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-1156032349778336412006-08-20T01:05:00.000+01:002006-08-20T01:05:00.000+01:00Brian,Well, this bet doesn't attempt to address th...Brian,<BR/><BR/>Well, this bet doesn't attempt to address the same question. The predictions of continued future AGW would hardly be affected by any outcome. However, it certainly represents a clear independent test of the ability of tree-rings to represent climatic variations (and eg to what extent they measure temperature as opposed to precip, as Eli mentions). That is, I think, an interesting scientific questioon in its own right, and one on which people have expressed widely differing views.James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-1155967836190636422006-08-19T07:10:00.000+01:002006-08-19T07:10:00.000+01:00I don't have any objection to this bet (assuming i...I don't have any objection to this bet (assuming it's fair), but I don't think it's as useful as a bet over global warming. The odds we give to global warming should signficantly affect our real-world policy positions. I think we've shown that most denialists are willing to risk other people's lives but not a few thousand dollars of their own money, which indicates to the rest of us how seriously we should take their policy recommendations. The value of tree ring proxies to actual policy is far more removed.<BR/><BR/>But as to Eli's quote, if you don't trust the bet offer, you can make up your own offer, and buy your own deck of cards.Brianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09301230860904555513noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-1155941548445901762006-08-18T23:52:00.000+01:002006-08-18T23:52:00.000+01:00How about cause while it was was hot it was dry....How about cause while it was was <A HREF="http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2003/aug/2003summeraeubl_pg.gif" REL="nofollow">hot </A> it was <A HREF="http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2003/aug/2003summeraeuwt_pg.gif" REL="nofollow">dry. </A> OTOH, European covers a lot of territory, and I suppose you can get a ring of anywidth whatsoever somewhere. for example Switzerland and Western Norway were both hot and wet.<BR/><BR/>“‘Son,’ my father told me, ‘there will come a time when you are out in the world and you will meet a man who says he can make a jack of hearts spit cider into your ear. Son, even if this man has a brand-new deck of cards wrapped in cellophane, do not bet that man, because if you do, you will have a mighty wet ear.’”<BR/><BR/>— Damon RunyonEliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-1155925840170786442006-08-18T19:30:00.000+01:002006-08-18T19:30:00.000+01:00Why would the warmers want to bet that European tr...Why would the warmers want to bet that European tree rings in the very warm year of 2003 did <I>not</I> show very wide rings<BR/><BR/>:)<BR/><BR/>Shouldn't climate audit be full of takers for that though they wouldn't be warmers :)<BR/><BR/>crandlesAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com