Thursday, July 07, 2005

A bet with Bashkirtsev and Mashnich?

Some time ago, I mentioned the reluctance of Mashnich to bet on his forecast of global cooling by 2021-2026.

Since that post, he got in touch with me, explaining that this time scale was a bit long for him (I don't know his age) but saying that he and co-author Dr Bashkirtsev would be willing to accept my $10,000 wager for a rise/fall in temperature over the shorter time interval of 2012-2017 compared to 1998-2003. Of course over a sufficiently short time scale, the probability of anomalous cooling increases (1999 was cooler than 1998, for example) but I still consider this bet to be clearly enough in my favour to accept it. Even with the extraordinary 1998 temperatures dropping out of the average, 2000-2005 looks set to be warmer than 1998-2003, and everyone with a clue expects continued warming in the absence of massive external perturbation such as a huge volcano or nuclear winter.

So, if they are serious in their offer, the first firm bet may be placed shortly (there are some details such as which measurement of temperature they would like to use, for example). However, it was back on the 21st June that they emailed me. I replied within a day but have not heard from them since. So maybe they are getting cold feet.

7 comments:

Brian said...

Having a "reset" function for the bet moving it several years in the future for anamolous events like large eruptions and especially strong ENSOs could reduce the uncertainty in the bet. I wrote about it here:

http://backseatdriving.blogspot.com/2005_07_01_backseatdriving_archive.html#112023849055075244

Good luck arranging the bet - I'm jealous!
(Maybe he'll be interested in additional bets...)

Anonymous said...

As a matter of correction, you should know that Galina Mashnich is a woman - you keep writing "he".

Anonymous said...

As a matter of correction, you should know that Galina Mashnich is a woman - you keep writing "he".

yea! sexist!

James Annan said...

yea! sexist!

No, just ignorant :-)

wgordon said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
wgordon said...

I fail to see how the comment mentioning that Galina is a woman's name can be construed as sexist or ignorant. You had been writing "he" when referring to Galina. This person was simply informing you that Galina is not a man's name.

James Annan said...

The first person was correcting me as to Galina's gender. The second is just a childish troll who was using that error to accuse me of being sexist. As for me, I'm just ignorant as to the gender distinctions in Russian names.