In the sparring over the "Betting on Climate Change" debate, one recurring theme has caught my attention - the reference to global warming alarmists who think that rapid warming is likely. For the purposes of this debate, "rapid" and "likely" basically mean more extreme than the IPCC's forecast of 0.1-0.2C/decade in the near future.
Ron Bailey knowingly lies in his claim that "people like Annan" expect a temperature rise of 0.3C/decade from now on. Chip Knappenburger wants to bet against the alarmists who expect temperature rise of 0.4/decade or more. This blog article talks about sceptics, realists, and alarmists (and identifies realists with the IPCC position).
The question is, do these alarmists really exist? If so, where? Why are there no quotable quotes from them, and names named? Rest assured, I will happily - no, eagerly - offer bets to those who make statements which I believe to be too extreme. But I've not found one yet.
Ron Bailey knowingly lies in his claim that "people like Annan" expect a temperature rise of 0.3C/decade from now on. Chip Knappenburger wants to bet against the alarmists who expect temperature rise of 0.4/decade or more. This blog article talks about sceptics, realists, and alarmists (and identifies realists with the IPCC position).
The question is, do these alarmists really exist? If so, where? Why are there no quotable quotes from them, and names named? Rest assured, I will happily - no, eagerly - offer bets to those who make statements which I believe to be too extreme. But I've not found one yet.
2 comments:
Hello James Annan,
This is Chris. F. Masse, the operator of the premier directory about prediction markets.
You mentioned a "blog article". It was written by CommerceNet's Chris Hibbert. He is a software engineer currently writing and testing open source software applied to prediction markets. Professor Robin Hanson at GMU.edu is helping him with the tests.
Generally, Chris Hibbert is a smart man, and from what I hear from his fellow techies (e.g., Mike Linksvayer), his project is in on the good tracks. Now, when it comes to global warming, Chris Hibbert is out of his sphere of competency... We don't expect him to ponder; we expect him to code. And we all have high hopes on him for that.
Number two, I'm writing to inform you and your readers that I have indexed every bit of comments about this "weather betting" debate in my directory. That way, when economists research the prediction markets topic, they are likely to run into your postings. I hope it will help.
Number three, in my modest and humble French opinion, the way to go would be to post an open letter to the TradeSports/InTrade prediction exchange, so as to coax them into considering floating your bet.
If you need an editor for this open letter, feel free to contact me. I'm a self-described idiot, but I'm great at criticizing and improving a draft ---on a topic I know too well.
For your curiosity, I have posted two stories about prediction markets this week.
Best regards,
Chris. F. Masse
The septics, in general, use "alarmists" to label anyone who does not parrot the industry line. This includes those who agree with the IPCC reports. The also refer to all environmentalists as "radicals" or "extremists". It is simple name-calling, meant to make anyone who does not share their views look bad.
Jim Norton of Anti-environmental myths.
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