Monday, August 01, 2016

Climate betting in the news again

Heard recently that Chris Hope eventually collected on his warming bet. Sounds like one of his protagonists had been dragging his heels, so that's great news. He'd already paid me my share out of the first part of his winnings. Chris wrote about it here a few days ago.

Nice article by Dana Nuccitelli in the Guardian today too:

And as it mentions, there's a session at the AGU Fall Meeting on closely related issues, which I've been invited to talk at. Will be good to see SF in December again, not been for a few years now. Probably 2012 was the last time. I'm also planning to submit something to this paleo session organised by PEN, not quite finished the abstract yet.


Paul said...

Well Done, James. I remember the original bet and thinking only those really innocent of mathematics would take on a man whose profession has mathematics as its center.

MikeR said...

Dr. Annan, what would be your over-under bet on global temperature rise (you pick the measuring tool), say for the next decade or two? That would be an neat bet, say against Nic Lewis. I'd be much more interested than a bet against someone who thinks it will get colder.

James Annan said...

I haven't looked closely but off the top of my head I'd expect the future 10-20y trend to be very close to the historical one over the last 20-30 years. Though starting at a particular outlier like 2016 looks to be, probably a touch lower (cf the decade from 1998 onwards...).

Carl C said...

good job - I don't see this listed on the GWPF website for some reason! ;-)