Sunday, July 03, 2016

Oddly enough

Maybe not all that odd. 

Various bookies are taking bets on the timing of our departure from the EU. First time I checked, you could get 7/2 on Article 50 not being invoked before 2018 (ie the "2018 or later or not at all" option. Then it firmed to 3/1, then 5/2. Now 15/8. At this rate, it will soon be odds-on favourite.

13 comments:

Chuck Magee said...

Don't put too much faith in the bookies; they can be had as well:
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/federal-election-2016-laurie-oakes-ties-up-bookies-with-multicoloured-offering-20160703-gpxhr0.html

James Annan said...

Now 7/4. Yes of course the bookies only reflect the sentiment of those betting, they don't have any hotline to the truth. Good story!

James Annan said...

6/4. Even though one tory leadership candidate has said they'll do it immediately.

MikeR said...

Back up to 5/2.

James Annan said...

And down to 2/1. Mind you, they are only offering 7/1 against oct-dec this year (and 20/1 by the end of sept) even after the govt has explicitly ruled it out.

James Annan said...

Now back to 6/4 again, and getting 50% of bets. I assume the graphic on that page is representing number of individual bets not total amount, as the latter should surely be reflected in odds. Still, now quite a firm favourite among the options listed.

James Annan said...

Now up to 11/8 which represents an implied probability of 8/19 = 42%. Comparing to the 2017 options (which are quoted as 4 quarters) the total implied probability there is 74% if my maths is correct. The probabilities adding up to more than 100% (with another 13% for the remainder of this year) is not a problem, it's where the bookies make their money (ie it's not really a probability, it's how often you would have to win at those odds to break even, which you won't do in general).

So some time in 2017 is still seen as clearly more likely than later/never, but it's far from a certainty.

MikeR said...

Can't find the link any more?

James Annan said...

Yes it seems to have gone. May be possible to find odds on the Sky Bet site - I think they were the main ones offering odds - but don't really want to join just to find out.

On the other hand I do see an increasing number of articles quite openly talking about brexit not actually happening.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-article-50-leaving-eu-wont-happen-after-2017-european-elections-france-germany-a7198736.html

http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/declan-lynch/may-is-heading-for-the-exit-from-brexit-34981939.html

MikeR said...

Both articles sound like wishful thinking. They interpret signs of difficulty - which are inevitable - as evidence for their preconceived notions. The second article uses the words "Brexit means Brexit" as its main proof for the opposite!
I would still bet on early 2017 - as that is apparently what May has been saying. http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/aug/27/theresa-may-acting-like-tudor-monarch-in-denying-mps-a-vote-over-brexit. Could be Parliament can't stop her. Sounds anyhow like the rest of Europe has already decided it's going to happen.

James Annan said...

It's certainly possible that it's wishful thinking. And as William pointed out to me recently over a pint, it's quite possible that a politician might go and do something idiotic however much evidence stacks up against it. But just now I was reading this article talking openly of a split in Tory ranks over brexit, and Owen Smith has made it a central plank of his campaign for the Labour leadership. The Overton Window is most definitely moving.

MikeR said...

Early 2017 is back up to 1:5; everything else seems to be fading.

James Annan said...

Yes, May does seem to be backing herself into a bit of a corner regarding "early 2017" though I still don't see much evidence of any sort of plan...