Posted: 29 Jan 2014 11:02 AM PST
Out in the middle of nowhere..
I wonder if it will be fast enough to download CMIP?! Before everyone gets too excited, in Japan we had the world’s fastest interwebulas, but access to a lot of sites was often a bit slow, particularly those in Europe, and downloading CMIP something of a nightmare. Nowadays of course it is Japanese sites that are comparatively slow compared to European ones. So, once they have sorted out outer-Lancashire, B4RN could perhaps go sub-marine and fix up the big inter-tube under the Pacific. Despite these caveats, if we can find a suitable B4RNed property (barn or otherwise) it can only be an advantage for doing BlueSkiesResearch-ing.
Thursday, January 30, 2014
Monday, January 27, 2014
Posted By Blogger to jules' pics at 1/27/2014 04:39:00 PM
Saturday, January 18, 2014
No regrets yet on swapping the grey walls of my cubicle in Yokohama for the green fields of NW England. Our main occupation is now viewing in the real world all those properties we researched online from Japan. Once we viewed one, we had to look at others for comparison, and thus it has snow-balled into having to view ALL of the ones on the rather long shortlist. Huge range of stuff for sale, so it is a matter of working out which works best for us: great views but bitter winds; no views but sheltered; mountain biking but no shopping; new house but tiny rooms; old house but inefficient; lots of everything but too big and expensive... etc.
Meanwhile, in blueskiesresearch, we have gained unlimited internet access (wooo!), but are still sharing a laptop until our stuff arrives from Japan in mid-February. This is enough to keep a few things like coding and paper revisions ticking over, which will hopefully be sufficient for another month. Amazingly, James earned a small about of money this week, copy-editing a paper for a colleague from JAMSTEC. Even more surprisingly, he seemed to enjoy doing it! Yesterday we went to an excellent seminar at LEC, Lancaster University, and met up with a couple of people we know there.
Post originally appeared on Jan 16th as "Swapping grey for green" at http://www.blueskiesresearch.org.uk
Posted By Blogger to jules' pics at 1/18/2014 09:59:00 AM
Friday, January 17, 2014
Thursday, January 09, 2014
Posted By Blogger to jules' pics at 1/09/2014 07:16:00 PM
Monday, January 06, 2014
It looks like a careful bit of work, there's no obvious problem with it, though there is one weakness that the authors are careful to mention, which is that the models may be significantly biased in some way such that an observationally-derived constraint ends in the wrong place. Eg if the models have too much mixing in some other region, or even a bias in some other process or place that compensates, then the Sherwood et al estimate will be biased. A similar issue crops up in the paleo world: if all the simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum use too little negative forcing (which we believe to be the case), then models with the correct intrinsic sensitivity will not be cold enough and a constraint based on LGM temperature change and model simulations will in that case tend to overestimate the true sensitivity.
There's not a whole lot you can do about this problem other than be aware of it, and try to use constraints that are as large scale and relevant to the predictand as possible, to reduce the risk of spurious correlations. That's one reason why I generally prefer the paleo and transient temperature change methods, as despite their own limitations they do at least directly consider the climate response to forcing on large scales. In contrast, emergent constraints generated across the GCM ensemble of climatologies might be spurious (though the ensemble size of Sherwood et al makes this seem a bit unlikely to me) or biased due to other compensating errors. Relatedly, I think I heard a rumour that the previous Fasullo and Trenberth result based on southern ocean biases in CMIP3 disappears in the CMIP5 ensemble. I might have misunderstood this, so don't quote me on it.
Saturday, January 04, 2014
Thursday, January 02, 2014
In other news, climate sensitivity is high again. I'm yet to get hold of a copy of the paper, so I can't tell you what is wrong with it yet :-) Some of our Japanese friends like it, so maybe it's right after all. But I can't read their commentary either :-( Thanks Nature for doing your best to hinder the free exchange of scientific knowledge.