Via Stoat, I find the Economist has been saying stuff about climate sensitivity. Somewhat to my surprise given my recent experience of the media, it seems to make a lot of sense. That could just be because it says
"Work by Julia Hargreaves of the Research Institute for Global Change in Yokohama, which was published in 2012, suggests a 90% chance of the actual change being in the range of 0.5-4.0°C, with a mean of 2.3°C"
which is referring to this, but the rest of the article seems mostly pretty good too. I do wonder about: "Nic Lewis, an independent climate scientist, got an even lower range in a study accepted for publication: 1.0-3.0°C, with a mean of 1.6°C." I've not heard anything from him for some time, and I wasn't convinced last time. But the overall message of a lowering probability of a high sensitivity is hard to deny. Unless you are Reto Knutti, that is, in which case "my personal view is that the overall assessment hasn’t changed much". Of course he was only speaking personally there, and what matters in his role as IPCC lead author, is what the (credible) literature actually says.