Stoat got there first (he's probably not got any ume to photograph), but being a muesli-munching lefty I also saw this interesting rant by Vicky Pope in the Grauniad:
Climate change scientists must rein in misleading extreme weather claims
It seems like she's mostly having a go at sea ice predictions and/or Hansen in the hyperlinked article. I don't really find much to criticise in her article (although I try to cut him some slack due to his history and importance in climate science, I have to agree that Hansen over-hypes thing a bit), but I don't see how the Hadley Centre can avoid it's share of the blame, and being backed up by Peter Stott is particularly strange, as he bears a large part of the responsibility for the absurd hype over the "devastating" 2003 heatwave.
Here's a quick quiz for my readers. We all know that the heatwave in 2003 was associated with about 2000 excess deaths in the UK (ie, the mortality was that much higher than the background rate either side of the hottest weather). Some of us may also remember there was a heatwave in 1976. In comparison to 2003, the excess mortality that year was (a) 25% or less (500 deaths) (b) 50% (1000) (c) 100% (2000) (d) 150% (3000) (e) 200% or more (4000). And the follow-up: as the climate of the UK has warmed rapidly over the past few decades and the population has aged, excess mortality due to heat has simultaneously (a) declined rapidly (b) declined a little (c) increased a little (d) increased rapidly, ie in line with the empirical temperature/mortality relationships that are widely used for predicting future impacts of climate change.
Answers in the comments please (and don't cheat by looking it up first!).
Climate change scientists must rein in misleading extreme weather claims
It seems like she's mostly having a go at sea ice predictions and/or Hansen in the hyperlinked article. I don't really find much to criticise in her article (although I try to cut him some slack due to his history and importance in climate science, I have to agree that Hansen over-hypes thing a bit), but I don't see how the Hadley Centre can avoid it's share of the blame, and being backed up by Peter Stott is particularly strange, as he bears a large part of the responsibility for the absurd hype over the "devastating" 2003 heatwave.
Here's a quick quiz for my readers. We all know that the heatwave in 2003 was associated with about 2000 excess deaths in the UK (ie, the mortality was that much higher than the background rate either side of the hottest weather). Some of us may also remember there was a heatwave in 1976. In comparison to 2003, the excess mortality that year was (a) 25% or less (500 deaths) (b) 50% (1000) (c) 100% (2000) (d) 150% (3000) (e) 200% or more (4000). And the follow-up: as the climate of the UK has warmed rapidly over the past few decades and the population has aged, excess mortality due to heat has simultaneously (a) declined rapidly (b) declined a little (c) increased a little (d) increased rapidly, ie in line with the empirical temperature/mortality relationships that are widely used for predicting future impacts of climate change.
Answers in the comments please (and don't cheat by looking it up first!).
9 comments:
Hmm, I would say 25% or less. My arguments
1) Your article sounds a bit a-like that (well I know a meta argument)
2) 2003 was climatically speaking for sure an extrem event but the desaster (in particular in France/Italy) came from a badly adapted health system (badly working or not existing air condition) and social customs (Parisians leaving their home and their parents alone for summer holidays). I guess in former times people were more conscient that they have to protect them themselves.
There are some serious claims to call the 2003 hatwave as the largest climate related desaster in recent European history.
http://www.earth-policy.org/Updates/2006/Update56.htm
Oups, forgot. and b)
declined a little.
I'd say e and b
Isn't this a Myles Allen research area?
Georg,
I'd be surprised if the summer of 2003 was really worse than the winter of 2003, or any other winter before or since, in terms of excess deaths...
rv,
Myles Allen has played a part, but I don't think it is necessary to blame him for absolutely everything that is wrong about climate science :-)
@James
" I'd be surprised if the summer of 2003 was really worse than the winter of 2003, or any other winter before or since, in terms of excess deaths..."
Me too. But thinking about it I realized, what do I know about "excess deaths". Nothing. If 50.000 is the correct number for the summer 2003 then this is more than the homeless freezing to death in an extreme winter. That involves larger parts of the population and typically something that happens in 2003, ie elder people were alone and didnt react appropriately.
Anyhow, what is the solution?
Well I will go for b and c before the completely different answer is given.
>"I'd be surprised if the summer of 2003 was really worse than the winter of 2003, or any other winter before or since, in terms of excess deaths..."
http://www.climateprediction.net/board/download/file.php?id=10
The spike briefly gets to a higher rate than in winter but I don't know if Baden Wurttemburg has been cherry picked.
what's the answer?
Sorry for the delay - an intrusion of real life. I'll post it over the weekend.
Post a Comment