Friday, May 02, 2008

Woohoo! Corbyn nails it!

Well, he got it right one month in a row. Honestly, I'm impressed. I'll be even more impressed if he gets it right for the next few months, though. For the record, April was close to average temperature and just above average rainfall, both comfortably within his predicted ranges. So now his score is up to 4 out of 8 for the year, which is still not close to his claimed 80% success rate, but slightly better than it was last month. Since it is late on a Friday night, I'll leave the binomial probability thing as an exercise for my readers :-)

Corbyn thinks that May should be about average for rain (90-115% of normal) but rather chilly, at 0.5 - 1C below average for the month. There aren't any exciting weather events forecast (you can't go far wrong with "variable: some showers" in May).

2 comments:

Chuck said...

Speaking of medium term forecasts, is Chaitén going to give us a cold dry Southern winter? OR is it too early to tell?

James Annan said...

Not sure how big it is yet. It would be funny if I lose my 4-year bet largely due to a volcano that erupted the week after I placed it. But them's the breaks. Even if big, it shouldn't really have an effect past 2009 and I had already written off 2008 in my calculations.