[jules' pics] Autumn colours

Even the toxic waste dump part of town where we work has some pretty red and gold colours at this time of year. In the shop I thought the iPod was green and was surprised to find no such colour option available, only yellow. Depending on the light it can be gold or green (flourescent light is green and tungsten is yellow). Anyway, whatever it is, it is a brilliant colour, especially for someone so good at losing things - hope it doesn't wear off too quickly. The background is the deep red leather of an iPad cover.

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Posted By Blogger to jules' pics at 11/30/2012 04:41:00 PM

[jules' pics] But then on 25th November...

I found that James had been right all along (as usual) - the cars really are breeding! Clearly one of ths parents of this brother and sister pair is the first car pictured here.

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Posted By Blogger to jules' pics at 11/29/2012 08:32:00 PM

That xkcd cartoon...

Old news now of course, but this was on xkcd a few weeks ago and Stoat pointed me to it in a comment:

I can't play all innocent because I've made similar jokes myself (eg here). However, I'm at least partly persuaded by Andrew Gelman (the comments thread is also interesting) that it's not an entirely fair criticism. Just because it's a valid frequentist calculation, doesn't make it a sensible one. On the other hand, it does highlight that even frequentists have to make sensible subjective decisions about what sort of analysis they are going to do (eg, which hypotheses to test). Which does knock a big hole in the claim you sometimes hear that frequentist methods are objective.

Disguise

Was in the local Tokyu Hands recently, and spotted this lovely party costume. As the advertising blurb on the Amazon page states, "It's a foreigner - sure to liven up the party scene". Who knew big noses and blue eyes were so exciting? I'm tempted to buy a set to wear to the work Christmas party, but I'm not sure that nose is big enough to fit over my enormous gaijin hooter.

Sadly, although I searched high and low I couldn't find a set of slitty eyes and bad teeth for when I want to make a party as boring as possible.

[jules' pics] On Nov 18th...

I didn't pass Starbucks, Motomachi, but James did. He claims to have taken these photographs, but I think it more likely that he discovered the "Breed You Own Beetles" game for his new iPod.

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Posted By Blogger to jules' pics at 11/26/2012 08:28:00 PM

Dialogue or denialogue?

The big blogospheric news is the start-up of the Dutch Climate Dialogue site, which is already being discussed variously elsewhere. Well-intentioned it may be, but I'm not really that impressed by what I've seen so far. Far from being a meaningful dialogue, we seem to have the stereotypical exhibition of a Gish Gallop from Judith Curry, who is obviously relishing her role as an "expert" almost as much as she did being a heretic. Not that she has actually published anything relating to the recent decline (which cannot be reasonably explained, to any substantial degree, by the modes of decadal variability that are usually touted as most relevant). But that doesn't stop her risible "I know nothing, so let's call it 50:50" schtick which I'm way past bored with. I did try to get her to justify herself, but she did the usual duck and weave, and the segregation of plebs from "experts" (together with my second comment being unaccountably held up in moderation for some time) means that there is no possibility of a real discussion. The other experts could arguably do more to hold her to account, but that's not what they signed up for, and I don't really blame them for not bothering.

I certainly see nothing to make me regret my decision to decline their invitation to take one of the "expert" positions in the next topic of climate sensitivity. This was planned to coincide with the big AGU meeting in San Francisco, which I'll be attending, and I hope I'll have more fun things to do there than to struggle with their over-stressed internet connection to subject myself to more of the same old same old. The people invited on the sceptic side (according to the email I was sent) for that discussion are not relevant to the scientific debate, other than as an occasional minor annoyance, and their previous publications on the topic have been debunked in some detail. Of course, it bears repeating that most scientists are generally more interested in doing science, than in debating with "sceptics" or assorted commenters of whatever stripe. Whereas, on the denial side, debate is a valid goal in itself. So the existence of the site is already a win for them.

Polynomial cointegration tests of anthropogenic impact on global warming

Apparently global warming has been refuted, buy some economists writing in Earth System Dynamics:

Therefore, greenhouse gas forcing, aerosols, solar irradiance and global temperature are not polynomially cointegrated, and the perceived relationship between these variables is a spurious regression phenomenon.

Were I Judith Curry, I would probably be saying "wow" at this stage. Alternatively, it could just be some dross that has accidentally found its way into print after having been rejected at least twice at different journals.

The review comments are interesting, to say the least. Reviewer #2, in particular, seems awfully keen on a number of silly sceptic claims that have been presented in recent years.

I suppose it just goes to show that you can fool at least one person sometimes, and if that person happens to be a journal editor, you're in luck.

I see this Beenstock thing has done the rounds before, though I'm not sure any of the commenters quite get to grips with it.

More betting on global warming

Here's an interesting video here from Mark Boslough (of "pi = 3" fame, among other things).

It is interesting that people from as diverse standpoints as Ross McKitrick can also call for a tax that depends on the temperature rise - not quite the same thing as the bonds that Mark Boslough was describing, but not a million miles away either. Of course the devil is in the details, such as the level of payment/tax required.

[jules' pics] Autumnal flare

I think the unbelievably sunny autumns and winters are probably what keeps some Brits in Japan for too long.
[Motomachi, Yokohama. Taken with my new camera! Actually, the camera was free with my new! gold! iPod!]


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Posted By Blogger to jules' pics at 11/20/2012 02:11:00 PM

[jules' pics] From the ridiculous to the sublime

Where, of course, this is the ridiculous.
The leaves are now starting to turn so I can't delay in posting this photo, taken a couple of weeks ago in Ankokuronji, Kamakura.

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Posted By Blogger to jules' pics at 11/16/2012 03:23:00 PM