Beautiful day, 18C and sunny.
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Posted By jules to jules' pics at 10/30/2009 09:03:00 PM
Saturday, October 31, 2009
"The Cove" now on TV/internet
I mentioned this film about Japanese dolphin-hunting before, but now it's made it to the small screen. You can get it on the web here.
Friday, October 30, 2009
A Stern talking-to
That name really is a bit of a gift to unimaginative headline-writers.
As jules mentioned, we attended another set of Asahi Blue Planet award talks recently, which you can find out about here. This time both of the award-winners were economists, albeit of a rather different flavour. The first, Uzawa-sensei, gave a rather rambling (but interesting) account of the birth and growth of the concept of Social Common Capital, his idea of how to account for the natural environment and social infrastructure that supports society but was basically ignored in standard economic theory. His talk started with the Papal encyclical of 1891 (!) and got about as far as the Papal Encyclical of 1991 before he sort of ran out of steam (and time) and sat down to rapturous applause. There hasn't been a Japanese winner for some time, and the lecture hall was packed, though this may be due to the fact that climate change is high on the agenda these days. I couldn't help but think that mt would have enjoyed the talk (and blogged more usefully about it), it seemed to be right up his street. There are more details about his work on the web page I linked to above, but it seems that the lectures have not yet been published (they will be eventually, judging from previous years).
Lord Stern was rather more down-to-earth, focussing on facts (ish) and figures relating to the economics of climate change, which will be fairly familiar to people who have read (about) his Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change. It seemed to me that he was rather too quick to rattle off lists of numbers, probably losing the (general and non-scientific) audience in the process. However, he did provide some pretty clear statements (eg calling for an 80% reduction in emissions from developed countries by 2050, and also pointing out that we'd better start acting rather sooner than that) that probably challenged the (usually docile) audience's complacency and resulted in an unusually lively question and answer session. I'm not talking about riots here, anyone who has been to Japan will realise that the standard experience is a stony silence and at best a couple of anodyne "can't we all get along" suggestions.
I've already complained about the excessively pessimistic approach to climate change that Stern took, and again he included numbers like a probability of 69% that a CO2 level of 550ppm would result in a warming of more than 3C relative to pre-industrial. He also quite clearly talked at one point about the future world being poorer than at present after 2050, despite the fact that all of his analysis is explicitly predicated on compound growth of about 5% per annum for the foreseeable future (specifically, 2.5% in developed, 7% in developing countries). That leaves the world about 4x richer in only 40 years, and none of the climate science credibly suggests mass destruction of the global economy over that sort of time scale and likely ~1C warming. There was also a fair amount of (IMO) magic wand-waving, ie the expectation that all we have to do is impose some tax or cap on carbon (he didn't promote one over the other) and the new technology would come along and save the day. Well, it might do...but it might not! There was also lots of praise for Japan's bold and courageous promises on carbon emissions. I use the terms bold and courageous in the Yes Minister sense, but I think Stern was being encouraging :-) Of course the Japanese are now rowing back as hard as they can (or at least laying the groundwork for a hasty retreat), which should be no surprise to anyone...
In the questions, Lomborg came up, which Stern quite clearly and deliberately dismissed as based on "undergraduate errors" (he used the phrase twice) - specifically, the false dichotomy of Lomborg's either/or approach to addressing the world's problems. On this, I agree with Stern of course. People who suggested that it was unfair for developed countries to take the lead were also given short shrift, though Stern pointed the finger pretty firmly at the USA as the worst offender, and didn't put so much emphasis on the large cuts that Japan (and the rest) would need. However he did not shirk the India/China issue, and dealt with it quite fairly, I think.
As jules mentioned, we attended another set of Asahi Blue Planet award talks recently, which you can find out about here. This time both of the award-winners were economists, albeit of a rather different flavour. The first, Uzawa-sensei, gave a rather rambling (but interesting) account of the birth and growth of the concept of Social Common Capital, his idea of how to account for the natural environment and social infrastructure that supports society but was basically ignored in standard economic theory. His talk started with the Papal encyclical of 1891 (!) and got about as far as the Papal Encyclical of 1991 before he sort of ran out of steam (and time) and sat down to rapturous applause. There hasn't been a Japanese winner for some time, and the lecture hall was packed, though this may be due to the fact that climate change is high on the agenda these days. I couldn't help but think that mt would have enjoyed the talk (and blogged more usefully about it), it seemed to be right up his street. There are more details about his work on the web page I linked to above, but it seems that the lectures have not yet been published (they will be eventually, judging from previous years).
Lord Stern was rather more down-to-earth, focussing on facts (ish) and figures relating to the economics of climate change, which will be fairly familiar to people who have read (about) his Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change. It seemed to me that he was rather too quick to rattle off lists of numbers, probably losing the (general and non-scientific) audience in the process. However, he did provide some pretty clear statements (eg calling for an 80% reduction in emissions from developed countries by 2050, and also pointing out that we'd better start acting rather sooner than that) that probably challenged the (usually docile) audience's complacency and resulted in an unusually lively question and answer session. I'm not talking about riots here, anyone who has been to Japan will realise that the standard experience is a stony silence and at best a couple of anodyne "can't we all get along" suggestions.
I've already complained about the excessively pessimistic approach to climate change that Stern took, and again he included numbers like a probability of 69% that a CO2 level of 550ppm would result in a warming of more than 3C relative to pre-industrial. He also quite clearly talked at one point about the future world being poorer than at present after 2050, despite the fact that all of his analysis is explicitly predicated on compound growth of about 5% per annum for the foreseeable future (specifically, 2.5% in developed, 7% in developing countries). That leaves the world about 4x richer in only 40 years, and none of the climate science credibly suggests mass destruction of the global economy over that sort of time scale and likely ~1C warming. There was also a fair amount of (IMO) magic wand-waving, ie the expectation that all we have to do is impose some tax or cap on carbon (he didn't promote one over the other) and the new technology would come along and save the day. Well, it might do...but it might not! There was also lots of praise for Japan's bold and courageous promises on carbon emissions. I use the terms bold and courageous in the Yes Minister sense, but I think Stern was being encouraging :-) Of course the Japanese are now rowing back as hard as they can (or at least laying the groundwork for a hasty retreat), which should be no surprise to anyone...
In the questions, Lomborg came up, which Stern quite clearly and deliberately dismissed as based on "undergraduate errors" (he used the phrase twice) - specifically, the false dichotomy of Lomborg's either/or approach to addressing the world's problems. On this, I agree with Stern of course. People who suggested that it was unfair for developed countries to take the lead were also given short shrift, though Stern pointed the finger pretty firmly at the USA as the worst offender, and didn't put so much emphasis on the large cuts that Japan (and the rest) would need. However he did not shirk the India/China issue, and dealt with it quite fairly, I think.
[jules' pics] 10/29/2009 08:32:00 PM
While Todai (Tokyo University) does include a half-hearted attempt at the cloistery thing, it does Japanese style much better. This is the lovely Akamon (Red Gate).
We were at Todai yesterday to hear Manabe-sensei (he's Suki Manabe to you) tell us all about the Younger Dryas.
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Posted By jules to jules' pics at 10/29/2009 08:32:00 PM
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
[jules' pics] 10/27/2009 08:57:00 PM
I hope, like all Japanese mountaineers, you can name all the peaks and troughs on this famous ridge. hint.
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Posted By jules to jules' pics at 10/27/2009 08:57:00 PM
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
[jules' pics] 10/26/2009 08:50:00 PM
Starting later this week and for a whole week we are hosting a Let's Internationally workshop, so we seized the weekend and climbed some mountains and also watched some leaves.
The trick now is to not get diagnosed with 'flu before the visitors leave, since if one of us gets it then we both have to stay off work for 8 days.
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Posted By jules to jules' pics at 10/26/2009 08:50:00 PM
Monday, October 26, 2009
Don't panic!
Swine flu has reached us, actually it reached us a couple of weeks ago now but has been sufficiently boring it didn't merit blogging about. There was a spot of panic with internal meetings and seminars cancelled due to the "risk" of spreading the disease, but the annual BBQ was way too important to be postponed, so we all stood around poking at communal plates of food with our used chopsticks :-)
The concept of sick leave hasn't caught on in Japan, either in law or in practice(*). So people generally struggle into work when they are ill, and infect all their cell-mates, rather than daring to leave their desks empty for a day. However, the current policy is that people who are confirmed infected with swine flu get an enforced 8 days off work, and the same 8 days applies even if you merely have a family member confirmed with the disease. If jules and I play our cards right we could both get 16 days in a row, and probably only feel ill for about 2 of them. Of course this means you have to go and see a doctor when you are probably better off staying in bed...merely being ill with flu doesn't suffice, it has to be the right strain.
(*) I amused myself by asking about the sick leave policy a few weeks back when there was an an-hoc health and safety meeting - the only time such a meeting has been held in the 8 years I've been here, I think it was motivated by preparations for the flu panic. The boss insisted that of course they had a sick leave policy like any reputable employer would, but it was written in Japanese and he couldn't explain it to me (there were some kanji up on the screen at the time). I asked the other people in the room if any of them could explain it to me, and was met with a row of blank faces. I have asked the bureaucracy, and the question has disappeared into a black hole, just as it did when I asked several years ago.
The concept of sick leave hasn't caught on in Japan, either in law or in practice(*). So people generally struggle into work when they are ill, and infect all their cell-mates, rather than daring to leave their desks empty for a day. However, the current policy is that people who are confirmed infected with swine flu get an enforced 8 days off work, and the same 8 days applies even if you merely have a family member confirmed with the disease. If jules and I play our cards right we could both get 16 days in a row, and probably only feel ill for about 2 of them. Of course this means you have to go and see a doctor when you are probably better off staying in bed...merely being ill with flu doesn't suffice, it has to be the right strain.
(*) I amused myself by asking about the sick leave policy a few weeks back when there was an an-hoc health and safety meeting - the only time such a meeting has been held in the 8 years I've been here, I think it was motivated by preparations for the flu panic. The boss insisted that of course they had a sick leave policy like any reputable employer would, but it was written in Japanese and he couldn't explain it to me (there were some kanji up on the screen at the time). I asked the other people in the room if any of them could explain it to me, and was met with a row of blank faces. I have asked the bureaucracy, and the question has disappeared into a black hole, just as it did when I asked several years ago.
Reply to comment
Our reply to the comment I mentioned recently is now up on CPD, so go and have a look if you're bored enough.
I suppose I ought to point out the discussion to a few relevant researchers who might have some interesting points to make.
I suppose I ought to point out the discussion to a few relevant researchers who might have some interesting points to make.
Friday, October 23, 2009
[jules' pics] 10/23/2009 03:39:00 AM
On Monday we weren't only making our decadal visit to yasukuni shrine, but were in town to hear Uzawa-sensei and Lord Nicholas tell us all about the economic impacts of climate change. Usually the Blue Planet Prize is a bit ethereal; everyone applauds, goes away and then carries on as usual. This time, however, with economists talking money people seemed much more interested, with fun questions such as Why Can't the Third World Just Pay for It All Themselves?
No photography was allowed, so instead here's a montage of my doodles. Uzawa-sensei is at the top, to his left Lord Nicholas, in the middle is most important person - the simultaneous translator, and the rest are the audience, some of whom were of course asleep. The woman at the bottom had red hair and a white suit with 80s shoulder extensions and she asked how we can make the forests as profitable as the parking lots which they are knocked down to make way for.
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Posted By jules to jules' pics at 10/23/2009 03:39:00 AM
Thursday, October 22, 2009
[jules' pics] 10/21/2009 10:47:00 PM
I did promise a few more favourites from Yellowstone...
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Posted By jules to jules' pics at 10/21/2009 10:47:00 PM
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