Big wind

And no, that's not a reference to the spicy noodles.

I thought we might have missed typhoon season by being away over the late summer, but I shouldn't have worried, there is one coming along right now. They are generally more "big rain" than big wind really, at least in our sheltered neighbourhood, and this one is no exception, with 8-10 inches of rain falling in a day. Closest approach is due in a few hours. Must go up on the roof and fix that leaking guttering :-)


That's us somewhere under there...

Sigh

(RSS users might like to note that my previous post has now been properly published, though it didn't come through on the feed. I would delete and repost but it already has a couple of comments...)

I was about to offer a lukewarm welcome for what appeared to be a minor and belated outbreak of sanity with regards to airport security, but no sooner had the "threat" of passengers not being made to perform a tedious and worthless security pantomime (doesn't merit being called theatre) every time they got on a plane, than a "bomb plot" has been conveniently uncovered. Not that I'm going all conspiracy theory on it, I'm sure the yanks hadn't even noticed the recent grumbling from the airlines over here. I doubt it will even do the Democrats any good in the elections, as most voters will probably just think "muslim terrorist president" even more strongly.

So this time it was a printer cartridge. Presumably the proportionate response will be that every page of printed matter carried onto a plane will have to be opened and photographed from now on. Anyone who carries a syringe for medical reasons will tell you that it's rarely even spotted, but the point is not to actually achieve anything, rather it's to be seen doing something. Like the 101,248 stop-and-searches under terrorism legislation that resulted in ZERO terrorism-related arrests. Bah humbug.

Incidentally, on the subject of airports, I saw someone describe Theifrow as "second tier" recently. I didn't notice any such improvement when we passed though it recently. "Shabby dive" would be nearer the mark.

More Curried leftovers

Bit of a backlog of blogging to do, but now I'm back in Japan with hardly anyone to talk to, I've got no excuse...

First up, I noticed Judith Curry continuing down her bizarre rabbit-hole. Luckily mt got there first, and I don't have much to add except my broad support for what he has said. Note that in the very first premise of her argument, she only assigns 70% probability to the fact that surface temperatures actually show a warming at all! This is the warming that the IPCC famously called "unequivocal" in their 2007 report. As far as I can tell, at this point she is simply so far out of touch with mainstream climate science that her analyses aren't worth the time it takes to read them. End of story.

If you want more detail, then yes, I agree with mt that her approach to probability is pretty dodgy too. I consider myself reasonably ecumenical in my approach towards the more esoteric probabilistic ideas such as Dempster-Schafer theory and imprecise probability, and have no real objection to them - I mostly take the view that we should merely try to do standard Bayesian probability a bit better before deciding it is inadequate for the task at hand. However, I don't think the "Italian flag" analysis - at least JC's interpretation of it - is a useful or even coherent contribution. The rot sets in right at the outset, where she apparently conflates the concept of evidence for and against the proposition "most of the observed warming was very likely due to the GHG increase" with an estimate of the proportion of warming that was due to anthropogenic vs natural factors. This seems like a rather elementary point to get confused over. Far from being the claimed synthesis of much detailed thoughts regarding the failings of the IPCC, most of what she has written reads to me like a stream-of-consciousness blog post that hasn't been properly thought through at all. But hey, "very not the IPCC" is all it takes for a stream of admirers and press attention, irrespective of whether there is any there, there.

It's not as if I'm the IPCC's greatest fan, either. But I try to base my criticisms on actual failings, rather than just bandying about terms like "corruption" and hoping that something might stick. Since I've been officially threatened with increased ostracism if I dare to say anything nasty about them in public I won't bother re-hashing any of that again. At least not right now :-)

[jules' pics] 10/29/2010 04:25:00 AM

Ely Cathedral - the best thing in the Fens. As you can see, there's not that much competition for things that rise above the horizon. Must remember to call one of our next daughters Etheldreda.

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Posted By jules to jules' pics at 10/29/2010 04:25:00 AM

[jules' pics] 10/25/2010 09:01:00 PM

A cute pub, originally uploaded by julesberry2001.

A cute pub near Cambridge that we passed many times on our morning cycle rides. Not missing the British Beer yet. We drank so much. So much that even William Stoat was impressed. However, I think he didn't spot the "trick" which enables this 5.5 foot weakling to down 4 pints a night.

On the wagon now. Last drink was the Premium Economy perk, Baileys, somewhere over Russia.

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Posted By jules to jules' pics at 10/25/2010 09:01:00 PM

[jules' pics] 10/24/2010 08:46:00 PM

Magenta berries!, originally uploaded by julesberry2001.

In order to get round the problem of the poor production of red and purple by digital cameras, Nikon have taken the bold step of genetically engineering previously red and purple vegetation to alter the colour more towards magenta. These berries are a particularly fine example.

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Posted By jules to jules' pics at 10/24/2010 08:46:00 PM

[jules' pics] 10/21/2010 09:29:00 PM

seaside, originally uploaded by julesberry2001.

This is my favourite photo of Ayr beach from our trip in late August, but somehow the dogs and recession got blogged first.

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Posted By jules to jules' pics at 10/21/2010 09:29:00 PM

Those cuts, in full, in brief

So there is "merely" a 10% cut in the science budget, and everyone is heaving great sighs of relief. Which was presumably the point about the 25% kites being flown...I'm not sure whether the Tories should be pleased with how that worked for them, or worried that people actually thought they were sufficiently psychotic to follow through with it. One trick that NERC worked out was (rumour has it) to put one of the BAS Antarctic bases top of the list to be cut. Of course these bases have no real scientific value anyway, they are just there as political flag-holders for when all those lovely mineral resources get exploited a few decades hence. But the Govt could hardly prevent NERC managing its "science" in this way without rather giving the game away. I think we can expect to see this stratagem reappearing whenever things get a bit too tight.

But maybe I just made that all up.

Anyway, back to the 10%, and the rest of the cuts. Having seen the state of (some of) the northern part of the country recently, compared to the south, I can't help but think the last couple of years have seen a humongous transfer of wealth to the bankers from just about everyone else. Eg Sevenoaks (and indeed Cambridge) is seeing a huge building boom while towns further north seem to have whole streets up for sale. I'm surprised there isn't rioting in the streets, but maybe those oop north can't afford the bus fare to find out how different it is dahn sarf.

[jules' pics] 10/20/2010 12:21:00 AM

An Apple, originally uploaded by julesberry2001.

Turns out we had to come back to Japan for the Apples; not Newtonian, but Jobsian. Her name is "mini".

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Posted By jules to jules' pics at 10/20/2010 12:21:00 AM

Like a phoenix rising from the ashes

I'm pleased and relieved that following an exchange of a few emails, our paper is now out of the bin, at least for the time being. It turned out that a major part of the criticism was based on a misunderstanding (and to be fair, even though I think most of the intended audience will have understood correctly, we could have explained it more fully for a general readership, and will certainly do so in the revised version). Phew!