But going off topic, intrade has some more contracts out Year, Contract_________,Buy_,Sell 2010.GLOBALTEMP.WARMEST 22.0 35.0 2011.GLOBALTEMP.WARMEST - 75.0
On 2010.GLOBALTEMP.TOP5 I grabbed 10 at 74 and 10 at 75 (and the 20 at 62 are also my bids).
Now I will have to get around to considering probabilities for 2010 GISS temps and whether it is more than a 35% chance for a record. Though with only 2 coupons on offer, it probably isn't worth the effort even if you could know the answer and predicting ENSO after the May barrier is problematic.
At 35% chance for 2010 and 2011 that would give you less than 58% chance of winning your bet.
They have now gone further than 2014 top 5 warmest contract, with a couple of 2019 bets. They are Warmer than 2009 and more than .2C warmer than 2009. No trade and not much in way of order book either - 2 orders are mine but someone has placed a buy order for 10 at 10. Gosh, a whole $1 tied up or maybe they are trading on margin so that it doesn't tie up a $1.
http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/podcasts/radio4/fricomedy/fricomedy_20091218-1900a.mp3
ReplyDeleteRoughly, five minutes in is quite amusing, but at the best bit is MB's piece at 11:30.
It'll vanish on Friday.
This scene from Life of Brian fits the COP15 negotiations pretty well:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YawagQ6lLrA
For me, Life of Brian wins over Marcus Brigstocke's oh-so-worthy right-on stuff. But at least the latter is still funnier than Monbiot and Lynas...
ReplyDeleteOddly enough, I thought they both said the same thing. But there you go. Eye of beholder and all that. ;)
ReplyDeleteHave we reached the start of the prequel yet?
ReplyDeleteBut going off topic, intrade has some more contracts out
Year, Contract_________,Buy_,Sell
2010.GLOBALTEMP.WARMEST 22.0 35.0
2011.GLOBALTEMP.WARMEST - 75.0
2010.GLOBALTEMP.TOP5 62.0 80.0
2011.GLOBALTEMP.TOP5 8.0 50.0
2012.GLOBALTEMP.TOP5 7.0 65.0
On 2010.GLOBALTEMP.TOP5 I grabbed 10 at 74 and 10 at 75 (and the 20 at 62 are also my bids).
Now I will have to get around to considering probabilities for 2010 GISS temps and whether it is more than a 35% chance for a record. Though with only 2 coupons on offer, it probably isn't worth the effort even if you could know the answer and predicting ENSO after the May barrier is problematic.
At 35% chance for 2010 and 2011 that would give you less than 58% chance of winning your bet.
They have now gone further than 2014 top 5 warmest contract, with a couple of 2019 bets. They are Warmer than 2009 and more than .2C warmer than 2009. No trade and not much in way of order book either - 2 orders are mine but someone has placed a buy order for 10 at 10. Gosh, a whole $1 tied up or maybe they are trading on margin so that it doesn't tie up a $1.
ReplyDeleteWell by 2019 I'll hopefully be living the life of Riley on my $10,000, which was wagered at rather better odds!
ReplyDelete