Warmer! Cooler! Cooler! Warmer! Let's call the whole decadal prediction thing off!
No, I don't really think people should stop trying to make these sorts of predictions - they are a great way to actually demonstrate and test the scientific principles that underly their creation - but I do think that plenty of scepticism is warranted in their claims. As for myself, I'm sticking with "about the same as before" for my prediction of the future trend - with some as-yet unspecified uncertainty bounds :-)
No, I don't really think people should stop trying to make these sorts of predictions - they are a great way to actually demonstrate and test the scientific principles that underly their creation - but I do think that plenty of scepticism is warranted in their claims. As for myself, I'm sticking with "about the same as before" for my prediction of the future trend - with some as-yet unspecified uncertainty bounds :-)
Shouldn't the discussion be about "warmerer" vs "less warmer"? The language is not well suited for second derivatives.
ReplyDeletei agree it's important to not obscure the fact that all these predictions are for temporary deviations from the long-term CO2-forced warming trend. However Keenlyside did actually predict cooling in absolute terms (not that anyone believes them).
ReplyDeleteAbout the same as yesterday is the safest weather forecast also
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