James' Empty Blog

There’s been quite an amazing turnaround since my last blog post . At the time I wrote that, the Govt was insisting that schools would open ...

NB: below calculation was made and published on Monday 4th, when schools had just been opened and before the latest lockdown was announced,...

The summary is, yes it's real, yes it's serious, and the early signs are that it could be very difficult to maintain any semblance o...

Being only a small and insignificant organisation, we would like to take this rare opportunity to blow our own trumpets. Blue Skie...

I’ve grumbled for a while about the ONS analyses of their infection survey pilot (pilot? isn’t it a full-blown survey yet?) without doing a...

Something I've been meaning to do for a while is look at how well the SAGE estimates of the growth rate of the epidemic have matched up ...

A lot of different estimates of the growth rate (R) of the epidemic have come out in the last couple of days, so here's a summary of whi...

It's been suggested that things might all be fine , maybe the increase in case numbers is just due to more/better testing. There certain...

It was pointed out to me that my previous scenarios were roughly comparable to those produced by some experts, specifically this BBC articl...

It's a while since I did any real forecasting, the current system just runs on a bit into the future with the R values gradually spreadi...