James' Empty Blog

The summary is, yes it's real, yes it's serious, and the early signs are that it could be very difficult to maintain any semblance o...

Being only a small and insignificant organisation, we would like to take this rare opportunity to blow our own trumpets. Blue Skie...

I’ve grumbled for a while about the ONS analyses of their infection survey pilot (pilot? isn’t it a full-blown survey yet?) without doing a...

Something I've been meaning to do for a while is look at how well the SAGE estimates of the growth rate of the epidemic have matched up ...

A lot of different estimates of the growth rate (R) of the epidemic have come out in the last couple of days, so here's a summary of whi...

It's been suggested that things might all be fine , maybe the increase in case numbers is just due to more/better testing. There certain...

It was pointed out to me that my previous scenarios were roughly comparable to those produced by some experts, specifically this BBC articl...

It's a while since I did any real forecasting, the current system just runs on a bit into the future with the R values gradually spreadi...

The Govt changed the lockdown rules substantially from the 4th July , with pubs, restaurants reopening and a new “1m plus” rule to replace ...

Way back in the mists of time (ie, 2006), jules and I saw what was going on with people estimating climate sensitivity, and in particular ...