James' Empty Blog

The Govt changed the lockdown rules substantially from the 4th July , with pubs, restaurants reopening and a new “1m plus” rule to replace ...

Way back in the mists of time (ie, 2006), jules and I saw what was going on with people estimating climate sensitivity, and in particular ...

We hear no evidence of Russian interference. We discuss no evidence of Russian interference. We see no evidence of Russian interference...

On reflection, perhaps it shouldn't be surprising. We expect the Chief Scientist to be a genius with a brain the size of a planet who i...

A couple of weeks ago, I heard about an issue with the way COVID deaths are counted in England. It seems that PHE are going through the lis...

Haven't posted for a while, so how about a few minutes of James O'Brien to pass the time.

Even odder than finding that our old EnKF approach for parameter estimation was particularly well suited to the epidemiological problem, wa...

So, the fortnightly chunks in the last post were doing ok, but it’s still a bit clunky. I quickly found that the MCMC method I was using co...

However you "solve" the problem, the pandemic was always going to be very expensive. Government mandated lockdowns might be framed...

The 2 and now 3-segment piecewise constant approach seems to have worked fairly well but is a bit limited. I’m not really convinced that ke...