James' Empty Blog

Well.. that was a very different EGU! We were supposed to be in Vienna, but that was all cancelled a while back of course. I might have ...

There I was, thinking I was typing into the void...and it turns out the comment notification had got turned off so I hadn't seen them. ...

Sir Lawrence Freedman (member of the Chilcott Inquiry ) has written a review of the UK Govt's response to the coronavirus outbreak whic...

Germany locked down at about the same time as the UK. Actually probably a couple of days earlier, according to Wikipedia and Flaxman et al ...

A while ago, I mentioned that the cost of delaying lockdown by a week was to increase illness and death by a factor of 5, based on the doub...

Guayas is a region in Ecuador that has had a particularly tough time with COVID-19. Prompted by this Twitter post from Karsten Haustein I ...

Has just been published ! It wasn’t really my intention, but somehow we never came up with a proper title so now we’re stuck with it! ...

(Small edit made 21 Apr to add a corollary at the bottom of the post.) I’ve said bits of this in various places and at various times to ...

New manuscript!  Now up on github too. Title as post. Yes, this is us dipping our toes into epidemiology. Turns out that calibrating a ...

Made this GIF overnight. It's showing how my forecast evolves as more data is added to the system. Initially it doesn't assume any ...