James' Empty Blog

Has just been published ! It wasn’t really my intention, but somehow we never came up with a proper title so now we’re stuck with it! ...

(Small edit made 21 Apr to add a corollary at the bottom of the post.) I’ve said bits of this in various places and at various times to ...

New manuscript!  Now up on github too. Title as post. Yes, this is us dipping our toes into epidemiology. Turns out that calibrating a ...

Made this GIF overnight. It's showing how my forecast evolves as more data is added to the system. Initially it doesn't assume any ...

A couple of weeks ago , commenter David Young was scathing of the threat of COVID-19. Look at the EUROMOMO web page, he said.  "ther...

I've tweaked the method just a little since my earlier forecasts.  You may have noticed that the initialisation of my short-term fo...

All these people exhorting amateurs to "stay in their lane" and not muddy the waters by providing analyses and articles about the...

Edit: To save the reader from having to plough through to the bottom, it is apparent that people in some countries are only being tested on...

Some people are talking about a peak in deaths over the next week or two. And suppressing the disease such that we might be able to lift th...

A few small tweaks to the model I was using yesterday and a bit more data have resulted in quite exciting results. Firstly, I improved the ...