tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post8915976152302270225..comments2024-02-15T04:42:41.606+00:00Comments on James' Empty Blog: His transgression cannot be condoned, regardless of his motives.James Annanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comBlogger199125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-75186494471959833762012-09-01T18:33:48.306+01:002012-09-01T18:33:48.306+01:00Just for perspective on how this stuff is done all...Just for perspective on how this stuff is done all the time -- and why it should be left to the professionals<br /><br />"... two of the best investigators I've ever met were a couple of ex-actors in Manhattan. They were masters of pretext, which is industry-speak for telling lies in order to determine the truth. If they called you on the telephone, you'd believe whatever they told you -- and you'd tell them whatever they wanted. This isn't to say Shakespeare is necessarily more important than the skills they teach you at Quantico, but being a capable investigator in the private sector frequently requires creative thinking and the ability to improvise. Which, of course, you already know ...."<br /><br />http://jobs.aol.com/articles/2012/08/29/confessions-of-a-private-investigator/Hank Robertshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07521410755553979665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-64126886955216676422012-05-22T17:12:36.029+01:002012-05-22T17:12:36.029+01:00Well, release of the report was promised. And it&#...Well, release of the report was promised. And it's "external". let's see.<br /><br />"<i>He has been on leave from the institute pending an external investigation into the unauthorised release of the documents, although it is not entirely clear what the investigation entailed. That investigation is now complete, and the conclusions will be made public.</i>"<br /><br />As I said, hmmm.Martin Vermeerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04537045395760606324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-11805479440135957662012-05-22T13:57:19.532+01:002012-05-22T13:57:19.532+01:00Hmmm indeed. They will need to come up with more t...Hmmm indeed. They will need to come up with more than a vague leaked whitewash to convince me. If he was really sent the forgery as he claims, the least he can do is actually produce it.James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-84434955102061607352012-05-21T18:15:48.220+01:002012-05-21T18:15:48.220+01:00Hmmm...
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/201...Hmmm...<br /><br />http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/may/21/peter-gleick-cleared-heartland?INTCMP=SRCHMartin Vermeerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04537045395760606324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-30411283183058039532012-03-16T16:06:47.641+00:002012-03-16T16:06:47.641+00:00The $50 bet with Steve Reynolds is mutually agreed...The $50 bet with Steve Reynolds is mutually agreed and accepted.Michael Tobishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08229460438349093944noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-68047634553738933292012-03-10T00:42:19.365+00:002012-03-10T00:42:19.365+00:00Holly Stick (10/3/12 6:22 AM) --
Your observation...Holly Stick (10/3/12 6:22 AM) --<br /><br />Your observation is very compelling. I will have to rethink my position.AMachttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08872008617279528583noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-16024036204919274952012-03-09T21:22:51.164+00:002012-03-09T21:22:51.164+00:00Just an observation: when the question of Mosher p...Just an observation: when the question of Mosher possibly faking the memo comes up, Mosher disappears from the conversation. Happened at least twice that I know of.Holly Stickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01137842937086115228noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-31580042464769504922012-03-09T20:51:21.953+00:002012-03-09T20:51:21.953+00:00Michael,
I sent you an email on Wednesday (to mto...Michael,<br /><br />I sent you an email on Wednesday (to mtobis@gmail.com) to provide the identification you requested. Did you get it?Steve Reynoldshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16256167637226194489noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-30569614222210160322012-03-09T06:04:50.518+00:002012-03-09T06:04:50.518+00:00Interesting to see the bet...I think mt has framed...Interesting to see the bet...I think mt has framed it well. FWIW, I am not so pessimistic as many of you about the likelihood of resolution one way or the other, AIUI HI has already said they are taking action, the Pacific Institute is also promising an investigation...<br /><br />Of course from the HI's point of view it might be good to sit on their hands until Gleick is fully rehabilitated by his supporters, before dragging it all up again. They must have a very good idea whether the document could possibly have originated at HI in some form (as Gleick's claim implies), or whether it can only be a post-hoc assembly from the other documents (ie Gleick did it).James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-72590680613160455102012-03-08T00:24:38.878+00:002012-03-08T00:24:38.878+00:00@Carrick
Again, you're not even reading what ...@Carrick<br /><br />Again, you're not even reading what I write. This is not a discussion, this is your continued monologue based on things I don't say. I'm talking about style, you're talking about forensics and "anomalies in the data". I'm not claiming JGAAP can reliably determine the author of a text sample, I'm claiming that in order to take advantage of its weaknesses and fool it, you need to <b>change</b> your style. Which is why the argument "it was written in Gleick's style" is bogus.GShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05487524152100412734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-2583787649770539932012-03-07T22:03:56.251+00:002012-03-07T22:03:56.251+00:00I accept the bet conditional on receiving offline ...I accept the bet conditional on receiving offline contact from Steve Reynolds. I promise not to reveal any identifying information which I receive in that communication.<br /><br />I'll confirm here.Michael Tobishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08229460438349093944noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-80564522585859500252012-03-07T21:24:16.541+00:002012-03-07T21:24:16.541+00:00I've been saying some of the same things to M ...I've been saying some of the same things to M Tobis, with much the same reaction. He shakes his head and pats the top of mine.Paul Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05855759989308442259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-82769902792739626832012-03-07T20:30:36.395+00:002012-03-07T20:30:36.395+00:00Michael, as I continue to think about the situatio...Michael, as I continue to think about the situation (why oh why do I waste my time like this) it occurs to me that Gleick may well know exactly who sent him the draft memo, and wants to keep the identity of the source confidential. If so, the PI investigation will say so, but also not release verifying information. Probably your betting terms should account for such an outcome.Steve Bloomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12943109973917998380noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-56179917436187490162012-03-07T16:40:36.838+00:002012-03-07T16:40:36.838+00:00OK, Michael, I agree to those terms. I will contac...OK, Michael, I agree to those terms. I will contact you offline to satisfy your "provide me with a good idea of who you are and how I'll find you in 2014" term as long as you give your word not to use any of my personal info for any other purpose or share it with anyone else.Steve Reynoldshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16256167637226194489noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-20376703027422400282012-03-07T03:02:11.988+00:002012-03-07T03:02:11.988+00:00OK Steve, let's make it fifty instead of five ...OK Steve, let's make it fifty instead of five hundred. Then I won't have to explain it to my wife and we can just make it informal. <br /><br />Proposed bet:<br /><br />If by close of business in California on April Fool's Day 2014 there is no decision, the bet is off.<br /><br /> If at any time before that date the author of the document is identified by confession or by adjudication or unchallenged testimony in civil or criminal court, I will give you US$50 if it's Peter Gleick and you'll give a charity of my choice $US50 if it isn't, in the form of a check drawn on a US bank and sent through the mail.<br /><br />I'm easy to find though. <br /><br />I haven't agreed to the bet and won't unless and until you provide me with a good idea of who you are and how I'll find you in 2014. There must be a thousand Steve Reynoldses around. You can do this offline if you like.<br /><br />Do you accept that?<br /><br />I think the likelihood of funds being exchanged between us is very small. <br /><br />(I doubt that Heartland will press charges, actually.)Michael Tobishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08229460438349093944noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-23214304503207823782012-03-07T02:31:40.658+00:002012-03-07T02:31:40.658+00:00GS: Sorry, as far as the style argument goes, I st...GS: <i>Sorry, as far as the style argument goes, I still prefer a method to your eyeballing and gut feelings. </i><br /><br />As I said that's pretty common among laypeople to assume that computer-baesd algorithms are superior to analyst generated results.<br /><br />If there was a software algorithm that had any skill, I' be sympathetic to this viewpoint, but there isn't in this case.<br /><br />The first thing I do with continuous tone data is plot the time domain, look for obvious glitches. There isn't any set algorithm that detects all of the ones your eye can spot. <br /><br />Then I do a Fourier analysis or the equivalent (OLS based software usually).<br /><br />If you start with the Fourier analysis, you'll find recording glitches can look like part of your noise floor.<br /><br />This isn't something I say lightly, it's something all students who collect and analyze data need to be taught.<br /><br />The whole point of an analysis is not the "gut feeling part", it's the connecting the dots between the different anomalies in the data. If you think the only way to do forensic analysis is with prebuilt software tools not designed to be applied to the task at hand, you won't get very far with it.Carrickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03476050886656768837noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-45643726219375824082012-03-07T01:22:47.743+00:002012-03-07T01:22:47.743+00:00@Carrick
I look at anomalies in the memo, I assume...@Carrick<br /><i>I look at anomalies in the memo, I assume the person writing it is trying to copy Bast's style in general</i><br /><br />... and build speculations on an arbitrary assumption. Sorry, as far as the style argument goes, I still prefer a method to your eyeballing and gut feelings. I don't like to assume things I have evidence against.GShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05487524152100412734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-76323022392184860232012-03-06T18:36:48.872+00:002012-03-06T18:36:48.872+00:00Michael,
I believe our host has some expertise in...Michael,<br /><br />I believe our host has some expertise in that area. Maybe he has a suggestion.<br /><br />In any case, we should set a time limit. If there is no resolution (beyond a reasonable doubt either way) within say two years, then the bet would be off.Steve Reynoldshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16256167637226194489noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-51903078569249510802012-03-06T17:55:03.076+00:002012-03-06T17:55:03.076+00:00Steve Reynolds, I don't know how to structure ...Steve Reynolds, I don't know how to structure such a bet between parties who don't have overlapping networks of trust without the most likely outcome being leaving $1000 in escrow forever. <br /><br />But if you do, let me know.Michael Tobishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08229460438349093944noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-30156791832625010002012-03-06T16:25:55.804+00:002012-03-06T16:25:55.804+00:00Michael Tobis: "I would bet heavenly dollars ...Michael Tobis: "I would bet heavenly dollars to heavenly doughnuts that Gleick did not forge it."<br /><br />So, are you willing to bet real dollars to be paid to the winners charity if the truth does come out?<br /><br />If so, I will wager $500 that Gleick did participate in forging the memo.Steve Reynoldshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16256167637226194489noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-31289891843764859312012-03-06T13:20:00.896+00:002012-03-06T13:20:00.896+00:00GS: And please read before you write. I said a few...GS: <i>And please read before you write. I said a few times already that evidence points to Gleick as the author of the memo, and it's just the "it was written in his style" argument that I don't buy.</i><br /><br />Ah, well I don't really use that argument either. So we're in agreement eon that point.<br /><br />I won't comment on the putative existence of voices in my head. Plausible deniability.<br /><br /> I look at anomalies in the memo, I assume the person writing it is trying to copy Bast's style in general, so you look for sentences that are out of place with the flow of the rest of the memo.<br /><br />I can see how people might see the style to point towards Gleick, but I myself used Oxford commas until I started writing in journals that used the other style convention (and sometimes even overuse parentheses).<br /><br />"Anti-climate" is a strange construction used mostly by pro-mitigation activists (I don't think anybody except Dr. Evil is plotting to deliberately see the climate obliterated), it's not one that Bast would (or ever has used), but it just demonstrates that he didn't write the memo and probably indicates it was written by an enemy of his organization.<br /><br />Given that it's supposed to be a <i>strategy memo</i> and it's just two pages long, the idea that an "intern" in his organization (I don't think they even have any interns, they're rather small....) would get assigned to something like that is silly to me.<br /><br />Doe he/she get to do the first draft of next year's budget too? LOL.<br /><br />This is just not how organizations function, and I think most of us realize this, at least those who've done time in charity organizations or similar before.Carrickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03476050886656768837noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-32482643664785204392012-03-06T07:26:39.398+00:002012-03-06T07:26:39.398+00:00dbostrom
That is awesome deductive reasoning! :b...dbostrom<br /><br /> That is awesome deductive reasoning! :big thumbs up from me:<br /><br /> If it was spelled the same in the memo, you would now have solved the mystery. Im now in clear. ;-)KingOchaoshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05521638162395452483noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-61233685891532344442012-03-06T06:54:23.105+00:002012-03-06T06:54:23.105+00:00Being able to spell "Gleick" correctly i...Being able to spell "Gleick" correctly is a decided plus in establishing credibility, no matter what hypothesis one is promoting.dbostromhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17688448471618219440noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-73755842630518484752012-03-06T06:37:30.839+00:002012-03-06T06:37:30.839+00:00Michael Tobis, the ball is in Glieks court. He mus...Michael Tobis, the ball is in Glieks court. He must hold the original that was scanned, and if it was posted to him via snail mail, he would have a post stamped envelope. Showing the origin of the sender. If it was electronic, there would be a trail. To date he hasn't been terribly forth coming. (maybe legal advice?)<br /><br /> As for it being a setup by HI. It would seem a rather bizarre, kamikaze attack... It damages their organization considerably, and for what? To make one semi prominent scientist look silly. And that seems plausible to some people?<br /><br /> Which leaves the document, is a HI original... with the errors? And the comical language... No letter head, ok so its possible, its been forwarded to Gliek by a disgruntled intern who got fired for really crappy memo writing skills(as i read somewhere (-; ) But i would think there would be some evidence of its origins. And Gliek should be in possession of them.<br /><br /> Now you are right, in that i have no idea personally what he(Gliek) is "capable" of. Now you may say he isnt so stupid to forge such a poor fake... so that would mean he was stupid enough to buy that it was genuine. In spite of having obtained the documents that should have high lighted the errors in the memo. Seems contradictory, to me. If he bought the fake as an original HI memo, he must have a very polarized view of them... and his admitted actions show he is capable of letting his passion motivate his actions, over common sense. <br /><br /> As for heartland... seems to me, they are just another advocacy group, advocating stuff. Plenty of these groups are misguided(and annoying), and have a habit of ignoring what dosnt fit their world view.(not unlike Jehovah witness's, or Greenpeace, or any other group thats about pushing "their" ideals on others) But i wouldn't characterize them, as evil. Ok so maybe relative to life experience, beliefs, if you believe they are single handedly dooming humanity to extinction or such, they may seem evil.. if you think Jehovah's are trying to steal yah soul, ditto. <br /><br /> The world is not black and white, good people do bad things, bad people do good things. What Gliek has admitted is stupid, rather than bad. And if it turns out he is the forger, it would be another stupid action. He should be holding the last piece to this puzzle.<br /><br /> I dont know, it dosnt seem serious enough to me to justify criminal action, but i know the laws are a bit harsher in the states. Ill wait and see.KingOchaoshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05521638162395452483noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-7058814340768940432012-03-06T06:22:01.775+00:002012-03-06T06:22:01.775+00:00From this point of view, most people are behaving ...<i>From this point of view, most people are behaving pretty much as I might have expected, except for James, who is normally the first to criticize wild speculation.</i><br /><br />Enthusiastically wild guesses have certainly kept me coming back here in morbid fascination to watch the evolution of this discussion. Forgetting for a moment that there's an actual subject person as the gossip-mongers' target, it's an entertaining, gushing cornucopia of half-baked conjectures in passionate support of conclusions that simply can't be known without a handful of additional key facts. <br /><br />Add in the constant references to Occam's razor even as ever more elaborate rationales for this or that conclusion are patched together and it's just too darkly funny. "He knew the document would be subjected to semantic analysis so he obfuscated it," counting commas, etc. A hoot. <br /><br />Meanwhile, there's new fodder for gossip coming out of this. How about Bob Carter's apparently slightly glossy <a href="http://hot-topic.co.nz/the-carter-controversy/" rel="nofollow">affidavit</a> to the court in New Zealand handling the Heartland-connect lawsuit against New Zealand's National Institute of Water and Atmosphere Research? What was Bob <i>really</i> thinking when he signed his affidavit? Is that <i>really</i> his signature, or was it forged?? <br /><br />Inquiring minds want to know.dbostromhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17688448471618219440noreply@blogger.com