tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post8737085272281993925..comments2024-02-15T04:42:41.606+00:00Comments on James' Empty Blog: The IPCC report in full, in briefJames Annanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-42704725232697575612012-12-22T16:34:12.258+00:002012-12-22T16:34:12.258+00:00Nic Lewis's 5-95% CI for S is 1-3 deg C. In ot...Nic Lewis's 5-95% CI for S is 1-3 deg C. In other words, according to NL, S is very likely < 3C, whereas IPCC still has "about 3C". <br /><br />I suppose the question is how much the IPCC estimate (which is uncganged from AR4 apparently) is at odds with recent evidence. <br /><br />Also, perhaps the unchanged IPCC estimate is driven largely by CMIP5 (which is "recent" in a sense, I suppose, although perhaps based on earlier forcing assumptions).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-75195979679936439342012-12-21T06:49:32.624+00:002012-12-21T06:49:32.624+00:00Joe Romm's Schlesinger quote is striking. It&...Joe Romm's Schlesinger quote is striking. It's as alarmist as me on a bad day. Steve Bloomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12943109973917998380noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-27101949667128601342012-12-21T04:43:51.973+00:002012-12-21T04:43:51.973+00:00Woohoo, fame at last. I presume my cheque is in th...Woohoo, fame at last. I presume my cheque is in the post.<br /><br />I'll do a (slightly) more detailed post shortly.James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-20104899198915999502012-12-21T01:41:22.098+00:002012-12-21T01:41:22.098+00:00Done<a href="http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/12/20/1365671/error-riddled-matt-ridley-piece-lowballs-global-warming-discredits-wall-street-journal-world-faces-10f-warming/#comment-623211" rel="nofollow">Done</a>EliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-25617757773516216262012-12-21T00:04:48.338+00:002012-12-21T00:04:48.338+00:00James, I expect your comment will be contextualize...James, I expect your comment will be contextualized as something approaching a full endorsement of NL's stuff.<br /><br />OTOH it seems to be disappearing down the memory hole fairly quickly, having fallen just a tad short of the claims made for it pre-"publication."Steve Bloomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12943109973917998380noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-90596269912075068862012-12-20T04:35:16.812+00:002012-12-20T04:35:16.812+00:00I think a lot of what Nic Lewis says seems reasona...I think a lot of what Nic Lewis says seems reasonable, though I also suspect that some of his choices will have served to underestimate sensitivity somewhat. Don't forget, "the ipcc" does no research to estimate sensitivity, they only summarise the literature which generally lags the latest evidence.James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-75875983033928649122012-12-19T14:53:25.184+00:002012-12-19T14:53:25.184+00:00and discussions on Climate Sensitivity start. so j...and discussions on Climate Sensitivity start. so just to annoy the vicegerent of this blog: "Why doesn't AR5 SOD's climate sensitivity reflect new aerosol estimates?" by Nic Lewis at bishop-hill http://t.co/F43INnsB obhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17276352775562324960noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-24384189000559463002012-12-14T19:23:42.284+00:002012-12-14T19:23:42.284+00:00I've had the same feeling about response to co...I've had the same feeling about response to comments. I commented on the lack of any discussion in the FOD of projected changes in environments associated with severe thunderstorms despite the publication of several papers, with broadly similar conclusions, since AR4. For the SOD, I just copied my comments on the FOD and indicated they hadn't been responded to. In my case, I couldn't figure out who would have written the severe thunderstorm section, given the author list.Haroldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00860475039609420200noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-60410517906662643192012-12-14T15:17:57.146+00:002012-12-14T15:17:57.146+00:00Well, thee and E certainly agree on all that. One...Well, thee and E certainly agree on all that. One huge advantage of the publication of the draft is as a current reference. The big (IEHO) problem with the IPCC process is how ponderous it is, and having the basic information (yes there will be tweaks but not huge changes) almost a year ahead of the final is usefulEliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.com