tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post6043690997798495860..comments2024-02-15T04:42:41.606+00:00Comments on James' Empty Blog: BlueSkiesResearch.org.uk: So near and yet not quite…James Annanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-38167720626319168812021-02-08T08:06:02.174+00:002021-02-08T08:06:02.174+00:00I believe that you assume too small mortality from...I believe that you assume too small mortality from covid. My colleague just completed the analysis on the UK data, and his estimate is roughly 1 death out of 150 infected. This heavily depends on the distribution of infections between age groups, but this is roughly in the middle. Seventy five thousands deaths at January 1st would translate to 11 mln infections, not 15 mln that you assume. Witoldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17160611381775852928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-13577740017980610652021-01-26T14:16:50.485+00:002021-01-26T14:16:50.485+00:00Well I think there is some sort of point, in that ...Well I think there is some sort of point, in that the effect of interventions is noticed in a change in the growth rate rather than in the number of cases directly. However I don't see where they get this two week delay from as cases will respond more quickly than that to behavioural changes. I also haven't looked at the USA data.James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-52996389063515722192021-01-26T03:20:39.079+00:002021-01-26T03:20:39.079+00:00Elsewhere, I saw this comment on when effect of ho...Elsewhere, I saw this comment on when effect of holiday contacts would show in US data. (I noted that it had peaked on Jan 8).<br /><br /><i>"Daily cases are irrelevant. The supposed holiday effect would impact transmission. That means that it would affect the *slope* of the logarithm of daily cases, with a delay of a couple weeks. Looking at the logarithmic plot for the USA, it looks like it was steepest around the end of October, so transmission peaked in mid-October. It finally went negative a couple weeks ago, just about when it should have been spiking, according to the holiday transmission theory."</i><br /><br />I really dont get what is meant. Does this make any sense?PhilScaddenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05937238628676275303noreply@blogger.com