tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post4590705580005020344..comments2024-02-15T04:42:41.606+00:00Comments on James' Empty Blog: New JobsJames Annanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comBlogger19125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-26551716452516044562012-03-19T14:09:51.782+00:002012-03-19T14:09:51.782+00:00Thank James.
Yes, I realise you thought it was o...Thank James. <br /><br />Yes, I realise you thought it was overhyped, but was wondering if there was anything worth taking apart in the evidence or in need of correction. <br /><br />I posted here before seeing stoat's post and realising Dr Schweiger has already done that quite effectively by pointing out misattribution of their position. (Sorry for not looking around adequately before posting.)<br /><br />I wonder if an appropriate correction will get into UK parlimentary records.crandleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15181530527401007161noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-23663298239979505832012-03-19T12:22:04.401+00:002012-03-19T12:22:04.401+00:00I'm with Stoat. It looks like a crock of hype....I'm with <a href="http://scienceblogs.com/stoat/2012/03/arctic_methane_emergency_group.php" rel="nofollow">Stoat</a>. It looks like a crock of hype. As with the <a href="http://julesandjames.blogspot.co.uk/2011/12/shock-as-indescribablyoverhyped.html" rel="nofollow">last time this came up</a>.James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-65937781992565971222012-03-18T16:21:12.308+00:002012-03-18T16:21:12.308+00:00Re tipping points.
Professor Peter Wadhams and Th...Re tipping points.<br /><br />Professor Peter Wadhams and The Arctic Methane Emergency Group<br /> have produced some written and oral evidence for UK parliment for 'Protecting the Arctic"<br /><br />http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201012/cmselect/cmenvaud/writev/1739/contents.htm<br /><br />http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201012/cmselect/cmenvaud/c1739-ii/c173901.htm<br /><br />Quote<br />"Passing such a point of no return would be catastrophic for the whole of humanity, as, inexorably, global temperatures would spiral upwards and food production downwards. <br /><br />Therefore we consider our present situation is extremely dangerous and warrants the designation of "planetary emergency".<br /><br />We see only one way to avoid passing this point of no return, which is to intervene by cooling the Arctic, principally by using geoengineering techniques starting immediately."<br /><br />They seem to think it is not only worthy of research but also of geo-engineering.<br /><br />Seems like there is some disagreement over the likely quantities of methane release from an ice free in summer Arctic from people giving evidence.<br /><br />Exponetial loss of arctic sea ice volume also seems to be being taken more seriously rather than an expectation of rate of volume loss to decline as the models suggest. I was surprised there weren't more caveats pointing out the models might be right and the rate of volume loss could decline.<br /><br />Any reaction to the evidence there?crandleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15181530527401007161noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-12507757371402862742012-03-17T20:01:03.404+00:002012-03-17T20:01:03.404+00:00Well, there does seem to be a reasonable common-se...Well, there does seem to be a reasonable common-sensical way of viewing tipping points, i.e. a change that persists even when the factors that caused it revert to their prior state (as with the GIS, apparently), but that doesn't seem to be what Tim settled on. I suspect this obvious definition didn't fulfill the objective of being able to identify lots of them. <br /><br />Also, as this seems to be the Second Empire (would Second Reich be better?... perhaps not), I was inspired to look up the status of the present Bonaparte heir (Napoleon VIII afaict). He's working for Morgan Stanley in New York. That's cosmically ironic, but perhaps poor material for a metaphor to fit present circumstances. Maybe watch out if a lot of the new RIGC hires are German, though. :)Steve Bloomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12943109973917998380noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-3564205762579860982012-03-17T17:27:08.574+00:002012-03-17T17:27:08.574+00:00just because you can't define it doesn't m...just because you can't define it doesn't mean it does not exist.<br /><br />The rapid climate changes that happened at the start and end of the Younger Dryas (YD) happened! And the rapid climate change at the end of the Last Glacial Maximum and the start of the Bolling-Allerod also happened!<br /><br />In fact the rapid changes (in geological terms) that occured during all four of the most recent glacial terminations are also facts of life. <br /><br />Surely enquiring why they occur is more interesting than calculating a new average rise in temperature for an increase in CO2?<br /> <br />And more important. All but one of these rapid events entailed a rapid rise in temperature, which is more likely to occur as a result of the anthropogenic rise in CO2 than the feared repeat of the cooling which occurred on entry to the YD.Alastairhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15152292130415788120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-74936596270265034672012-03-17T17:26:45.185+00:002012-03-17T17:26:45.185+00:00EBTD, knowledge of the parameter surface (the clim...EBTD, knowledge of the parameter surface (the climate equilibria, but actually much more) tells you what the magnitude and rate of change are, or at least the interesting limits on the same. Otherwise you are simply collecting numbers.EliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-72117480158653306482012-03-17T16:36:18.307+00:002012-03-17T16:36:18.307+00:00> Wikipedia politely starts with "A climat...> Wikipedia politely starts with "A climate tipping point is a somewhat ill-defined concept" :-)<br /><br />I wrote that: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Tipping_point_(climatology)&diff=465784126&oldid=461202191William M. Connolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-12387560465352914822012-03-17T13:11:54.477+00:002012-03-17T13:11:54.477+00:00And Eli replied "the honest one where I walk ...And Eli replied "the honest one where I walk on the surface" :-)James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-69998662609662618012012-03-17T13:09:17.778+00:002012-03-17T13:09:17.778+00:00Regarding tipping points, the fundamental problem ...Regarding tipping points, the fundamental problem is that their mathematical origin in catastrophe theory is basically unrelated to the important questions we care about in climate change, which are (IMO) primarily concerning the magnitude and rate of climate change, rather than the existence and nature of particular equilibria. (Even the concept of cliatological equilibrium itself is dodgy enough.)<br /><br />AIUI it all went badly downhill when Tim Lenton, on encountering this incompatibility between theory and relevance, decided to (re)define a tipping point as basically any change he didn't really like very much. Which, as far as I can see, makes it more of a politically convenient construct than a scientifically useful one.<br /><br />Wikipedia politely starts with "A climate tipping point is a somewhat ill-defined concept" :-)James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-51728525200137671072012-03-17T12:44:29.685+00:002012-03-17T12:44:29.685+00:00With reference to
"Where I said "not su...With reference to<br /><br />"Where I said "not successful or important enough", this should be read as "amazing, outstanding world-leading experts"."<br /><br />When Eli was hunting about, he asked a friend to write a letter of recommendation, who replied: do you want the US version where you part the waters, or the Euro version where you scramble to shore?.EliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-61039981846432516172012-03-17T12:42:22.811+00:002012-03-17T12:42:22.811+00:00Maybe, and Eli is simply speculating, because stat...Maybe, and Eli is simply speculating, because statistical analysis really can't say anything about stuff that is external to the part of the system that has been previously explored.EliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-44495037723653345172012-03-17T12:01:23.742+00:002012-03-17T12:01:23.742+00:00I'M not sure why you seem against working on t...I'M not sure why you seem against working on tipping points. Hansen and others have been on about this, and obviously there is a resultant public interest.Shibuihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06536833424201383029noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-55076610880217607412012-03-17T01:25:13.764+00:002012-03-17T01:25:13.764+00:00Yeah, and that's how hers started 5 years ago ...Yeah, and that's how hers started 5 years ago too. Doing it all again just to be sacked at the end doesn't have the same appeal 2nd time round.James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-52786301450066619302012-03-16T22:54:16.219+00:002012-03-16T22:54:16.219+00:00But think of it, your very own post-doc!
And is t...But think of it, your very own post-doc!<br /><br />And is that not how all scientific empires begin, with a single bench monkey? :)Steve Bloomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12943109973917998380noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-50917905969673061532012-03-16T21:46:00.695+00:002012-03-16T21:46:00.695+00:00The key, esp. for the owner of the stash is not to...The key, esp. for the owner of the stash is not to volunteer to help out. Let the new leaders make their own hash. Eli, as Ms. Rabett points out, has not learned this lesson.<br /><br />In any case best of luck and happy hunting.EliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-20872491711972429752012-03-16T16:18:36.002+00:002012-03-16T16:18:36.002+00:00I was going to say congratulations but I guess it ...I was going to say congratulations but I guess it should be commiserations! maybe it's time to go back and save your homeland....Carl Chttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14717209873111026574noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-86959598844793400842012-03-16T11:56:02.134+00:002012-03-16T11:56:02.134+00:00Note to any USAians with positions open who may be...Note to any USAians with positions open who may be reading. Where I said "not successful or important enough", this should be read as "amazing, outstanding world-leading experts".<br /><br />(jules said I should make that clear, just in case. You never can be too careful.)James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-74247813931573268552012-03-16T11:44:13.430+00:002012-03-16T11:44:13.430+00:00Well we haven't walked out on the spot :-)
It...Well we haven't walked out on the spot :-)<br /><br />It's certainly a nudge in that direction, but there is no point cutting off our noses just to spite our faces, however much temporary satisfaction there would be to be gained by stomping off. The simple fact is that we rather like living here - we took the morning off on a whim to wander around the plum blossom in our local temple in the sun, before having coffee in our local <a href="http://julesandjames.blogspot.com/2011/03/st-gods-vs-st-arbucks_20.html" rel="nofollow">church</a>. For people of sufficiently low ambition (who, moi?) it has its attractions, though jules is a little more of an (aspiring) empire-builder. And it's not like people around the world would be queueing up to offer us anything anyway, being too old for entry-level positions but not successful or important enough for head-hunters.<br /><br />The new project is expected to start some time later this summer, at which point things may kick off again if some clueless numpty tries to order us around. With any luck, they will be too scared to approach us.James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-6129742537158509102012-03-16T09:57:49.295+00:002012-03-16T09:57:49.295+00:00> jules has been demoted
Anyone without a capi...> jules has been demoted<br /><br />Anyone without a capital to their name is clearly low status.<br /><br />Being out of the system I don't much care for myself, but I'd be curious as to whether you view what has just happened as an incentive to leave Japan, or if the advantages still outweigh the bureaucracy. You have 5 years funding... do you expect to stay for all those years?William M. Connolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.com