tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post4445988218025320175..comments2024-02-15T04:42:41.606+00:00Comments on James' Empty Blog: The "$20,000" Climate forecast betJames Annanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-63299622915740861852007-06-27T09:17:00.000+01:002007-06-27T09:17:00.000+01:00lord this is demented - what difference does it ma...lord this is demented - what difference does it make whether the model is fully disclosed? This is not like Deep Blue vs. Kasparov.<BR/><BR/>has he backtracked and postdicted better than the IPCC's announced consensus (it's not like they have one Grand Unifying Model that all bow to)?<BR/><BR/>Or is he channeling the wisdom of the market? Anyway, it'd be fascinating to find out what he would say would be a not-fully-disclosed factor that would let some greenie climate alarmist out-predict his "model".Marion Delgadohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09493068399042656060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-91760406001977300822007-06-20T02:45:00.000+01:002007-06-20T02:45:00.000+01:00That quote's a goodun :-)I was meaning that the mo...That quote's a goodun :-)<BR/><BR/>I was meaning that the model mean would be a sensible choice for <I>him</I>, to probably beat any one model output. I agree there are lots of potential gotchas in what he has written. I have emailed him for more details...James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-76275531750785482007-06-19T22:46:00.000+01:002007-06-19T22:46:00.000+01:00Sorry, found another wonderful quote rather appror...Sorry, found another wonderful quote rather approriate to forecasting; "Carter, et al. (2006) examined the Stern Review (Stern 2007)."William M. Connolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-27608306568646630292007-06-19T22:38:00.000+01:002007-06-19T22:38:00.000+01:00Who would have thought that there are 140 principl...Who would have thought that there are 140 principles to forecasting? And that IPCC managed to break 72 of them. I suspect he wrote his own wiki page, too... Why is this anything other than a pile of b*ll*cks?<BR/><BR/>Note, BTW, the terms of the bet: "he will be able to more accurately forecast climate change than can any fully disclosed climate model". First off, that rules out any averages. Secondly, it rules out, e.g., HadCM3 which isn't disclosed. But why should he insist on disclosure of the model rather than the forecast?William M. Connolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-8763646578999087522007-06-19T20:57:00.000+01:002007-06-19T20:57:00.000+01:00Are there any errors associated with the bet?Are there any errors associated with the bet?C W Mageehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09706100504739548720noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-80143725081624798492007-06-19T15:11:00.000+01:002007-06-19T15:11:00.000+01:00Yes, it's full of...quotable quotes :-) I initiall...Yes, it's full of...quotable quotes :-) I initially gave him the benefit of the doubt due to Gelman's link (and to be fair there is nothing obviously kooky about the statistical significance thing).James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-63442819933239870172007-06-19T14:42:00.000+01:002007-06-19T14:42:00.000+01:00I think this bit from Armstrong's paper says it al...I think this bit from Armstrong's paper says it all:<BR/><BR/><I>"History is filled with the poor treatment of those who attempt to introduce science into arenas where emotions are high and vested interests are threatened. Galileo springs to mind."</I>Tim Lamberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03619533938771249394noreply@blogger.com