tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post3957310093436461018..comments2024-02-15T04:42:41.606+00:00Comments on James' Empty Blog: Oh noes we're all going die...by 2200James Annanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-16037223346020334642010-07-01T23:28:11.867+01:002010-07-01T23:28:11.867+01:00Oh that removed comment was more interesting :-) I...Oh that removed comment was more interesting :-) I was going to respond that I think that the tipping points stuff is potentially/originally interesting but it's been turned into a pretty meaningless catch-phrase that is more of a device for getting headlines than actually advancing our understanding of the climate system.James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-80101254145539956812010-07-01T23:22:28.558+01:002010-07-01T23:22:28.558+01:00It's the very high probabilities for high sens...It's the very high probabilities for high sensitivity that I object to - there really is no evidence at all for this, and lots against, once you realise that the widespread praxis of "take a uniform prior and ignore almost all the data" is pathological and guarantees a long fat tail irrespective of what the observations are.<br /><br />[It's not as if there isn't a mountain of evidence positively pointing to ~3C either.]James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-32951760146699064032010-07-01T22:04:55.945+01:002010-07-01T22:04:55.945+01:00Sorry, I just don't see how some people paying...Sorry, I just don't see how some people paying attention to long and/or fat tails somehow invalidates what you've done over the years? It just seems to me (still) that we are doing unprecedented forcings that have no analogue in paleoclimate data (hell I'd even extend that to how we extract oil and leave it gushing under a mile of ocean etc).<br /><br />The "fun" stuff is looking at the worst-case scenarios, right? I mean if everyone just said "2.9C+/-.8C" what would there be to do? ;-)Carl Chttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14717209873111026574noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-39042110146680895562010-07-01T21:37:27.297+01:002010-07-01T21:37:27.297+01:00This comment has been removed by the author.Carl Chttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14717209873111026574noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-86989246347916232772010-07-01T20:59:13.327+01:002010-07-01T20:59:13.327+01:00I could hardly have expected to be included in a g...I could hardly have expected to be included in a group of only 14, and I'd have pretty much agreed with 4, so it's not that my views were not represented. But I'd like to hear what several people use as justification for their responses. If they think our (elementary) arguments are invalid, then it's disappointing that they haven't tried to explain why.James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-38489126902709399772010-07-01T18:38:16.238+01:002010-07-01T18:38:16.238+01:00ok, so if you and your wife were asked it would ha...ok, so if you and your wife were asked it would have been 9 (or perhaps 10) out of 16 then, so you still lose! ;-)Carl Chttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14717209873111026574noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-21630266047275553082010-07-01T08:30:49.929+01:002010-07-01T08:30:49.929+01:00DC,
Well talking of AR5, the two CLAs plus two mo...DC,<br /><br />Well talking of AR5, the two CLAs plus two more authors on the most relevant chapter (long term climate change) are in this set of 14 - and none of them are the sane #4...(ok I accept several of the other pdfs are not really too ridiculous either).<br /><br />Incidentally one participant in this new work is the person I think I mentioned some time ago who openly advocated exaggerating in opinion polls such as this in order to encourage "action".James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-77730457008579165032010-07-01T08:08:52.072+01:002010-07-01T08:08:52.072+01:00DC, the caption doesn't suggest that - and #2 ...DC, the caption doesn't suggest that - and #2 is so silly (best estimate greater than 4!) that I expect the plot is wrong.<br /><br />MC, unfortunately however much one tortures the data it will not confess to such a low value. If sensitivity was so small, we'd never have had ice ages and the planet would have barely warmed over the last century. A shame as it would solve a lot of problems (though not ocean acidification).<br /><br />Eli, I'll see you up in tropical Scotland then!James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-85347828997199801622010-06-30T20:30:27.942+01:002010-06-30T20:30:27.942+01:00Has your work allowed you to comment on the probab...Has your work allowed you to comment on the probability that climate sensitivity is below 1?<br /><br />Thanks.MikeCoombesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-27481147090212385942010-06-30T19:21:35.783+01:002010-06-30T19:21:35.783+01:00We are all going to die by 2300. Eli plans to han...We are <a href="http://rabett.blogspot.com/2010/06/death-doom-and-disaster-coming-soon-to.html" rel="nofollow">all going to die by 2300</a>. Eli plans to hang around until then just to rub your face in it.EliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-4759093748084565932010-06-30T19:01:02.867+01:002010-06-30T19:01:02.867+01:00I hope climate sensitivity will be covered properl...I hope climate sensitivity will be covered properly in AR5.<br /><br />Is it possible that the probabilities for gt 4.3C are an average of the dark and grey boxes?<br /><br />That could explain #2 *and* #4, I think. Or not.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com