tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post3218573113384075726..comments2024-02-15T04:42:41.606+00:00Comments on James' Empty Blog: More BrexitJames Annanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-14849524448433270892019-03-23T19:54:10.040+00:002019-03-23T19:54:10.040+00:00The other amusing one is digital odds of 1.02 on A...The other amusing one is digital odds of 1.02 on A50 deadline being extended.<br /><br />If Govt revoked A50 or something so that we didn't use extension then I would say the A50 deadline was extended even if not used. There is even a press release saying it has formally been extended. Can get £1090 on that.crandleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15181530527401007161noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-66712349443790331972019-03-23T19:45:36.167+00:002019-03-23T19:45:36.167+00:00Betfair has digital odds of 3.75 to 3.8 for A50 re...Betfair has digital odds of 3.75 to 3.8 for A50 revoke which means implied odds between 1/3.8 and 1/3.75 so implied odds of 26.3% to 26.67% depending which way you want to bet.<br /><br />.<br /><br />I am heavily laying May exiting as PM before April and getting some at digital odds as low as 6.2. Time is when she is officially replaced as PM.<br /><br />Normal hand over of power on resignation would have a timetable meeting setting a deadline in about a weeks time and if only one MP put their name forward then the contest could be over at the end of that week. So not quite sure how people betting on May to go expect the handover of power to be achieved. An instant stand down an appointment of "emergency PM"?crandleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15181530527401007161noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-29814031467327804852019-03-21T21:19:55.403+00:002019-03-21T21:19:55.403+00:00Some UK gambling site puts the odds of Abandon A50...Some UK gambling site puts the odds of Abandon A50 at 5/2. However, I don't know enough to know what 5/2 means. David B. Bensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15914145623997712113noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-24032946788592092802019-03-18T16:52:42.320+00:002019-03-18T16:52:42.320+00:00As expected the blog is looking dated within 24h o...As expected the blog is looking dated within 24h of publication :-)<br /><br />Though actually not that much has changed in the bigger picture.James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-60354021786478424622019-03-18T16:48:54.742+00:002019-03-18T16:48:54.742+00:00Is there a flow chart demonstrating exactly how Be...Is there a flow chart demonstrating exactly how Bercow just arranged the positioning of a cat relative to some pigeons?PaulShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01643816417186967638noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-38429162829367704332019-03-18T04:23:21.702+00:002019-03-18T04:23:21.702+00:00Some lovely flow charts out there
https://twitter...Some lovely flow charts out there<br /><br />https://twitter.com/GordonDarroch/status/1105578967036317699EliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-88819772647811637922019-03-18T00:12:08.026+00:002019-03-18T00:12:08.026+00:00I have been attempting to understand how a neutron...I have been attempting to understand how a neutron star becomes a black hole via obesity. <br /><br />This strikes me as as relevant as all the above to brexitedness... say that out loud very fast. David B. Bensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15914145623997712113noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-2118507455767384102019-03-17T20:42:41.144+00:002019-03-17T20:42:41.144+00:00There are still lots of twists and turns but I don...There are still lots of twists and turns but I don't think we'll get both an extension and revocation before the end of the month :-) The former seems pretty much nailed-on unless the EU decides to teach us a lesson and they have shown unlimited patience so far. Revoke before 29th seems to require a fairly implausible set of outcomes, but....<br /><br />One thing that really bugs me about some podcasts (ok one in particular) is the way they say...W is unlikely, X is unlikely, Y is unlikely...we have eliminated all alternatives therefore as Sherlock Holmes would say, Z must happen! Actually, a similar level of analysis would suggest Z is also unlikely, it's just their choice of leaving it last as an untested option means they don't see that (at least, don't discuss it). Also, they don't consider "something we haven't thought of that is outside the strict definitions of W - Z we have used here" such as a delay or a fudged definition of Y or....<br /><br />It is a reliable source of entertainment to listen a few days later to see how wrong they all were.<br /><br />As a Bayesian, I still say that if we were going to ultimately stay in the EU, I'd expect to see a chaotic shitshow while parliament gradually comes round to the idea. On that basis, I see little evidence to change my mind :-)James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-62323623165990177922019-03-17T20:07:10.479+00:002019-03-17T20:07:10.479+00:00So what do you think of odds on
Extension 1.17 = ...So what do you think of odds on <br />Extension 1.17 = implied probability 85.5%<br />Revoke 4.6 = implied probability 21.7%<br /><br />Is there really that much chance of both extension and revocation before 30/3 ? or should both be shorted?<br /><br />Some of these hedges get a bit tricky e.g.<br />When will House of Commons pass Brexit vote (before 30/3/19)? hmm. might pass vote but still need extension for other legislation.<br /><br />.<br /><br />EU require long extension - is that a good excuse for revoke A50, hold referendum, if referendum says so, reinvoke A50 and shorten 2 year period. Might get it done in a year rather than 21 month extension.crandleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15181530527401007161noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-68104337209636226162019-03-17T18:48:17.952+00:002019-03-17T18:48:17.952+00:00I think the EU should deny the extension. It would...I think the EU should deny the extension. It would be a mercy killing. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01186405235008602228noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-31575923003853814892019-03-17T18:06:55.890+00:002019-03-17T18:06:55.890+00:00Pinball machine kind of implies a player....not su...Pinball machine kind of implies a player....not sure I like the implication of that :-)James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-1105307977495569132019-03-17T18:06:14.750+00:002019-03-17T18:06:14.750+00:00Yes I think there's been quite a lot of ingenu...Yes I think there's been quite a lot of ingenuity in designing motions and amendments that are claimed to present existing policy while actually undermining it. On both (all!) sides.James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-18714325227740278922019-03-17T18:06:10.688+00:002019-03-17T18:06:10.688+00:00But it might be a Pinball Machine rather than a Ga...But it might be a Pinball Machine rather than a Galton Board!juleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02591920483149775255noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-76914647557080973702019-03-17T17:53:23.724+00:002019-03-17T17:53:23.724+00:00> amendments are tricksily worded
As a (n ex-)...> amendments are tricksily worded<br /><br />As a (n ex-) tricksy remainer I presume you intend that as a compliment ;-?<br /><br />As to referenda, I did wonder if we had a long extension, requiring us to vote in the EU elections (which other sources say the EU fear, in case we return a pile of gammons), might be good, as a sort of proxy referendum on the EU. Though that would require parties to put up pro-EU candidates to vote for.William M. Connolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.com