tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post3000689195395123352..comments2024-02-15T04:42:41.606+00:00Comments on James' Empty Blog: Is R0 larger than people think?James Annanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comBlogger19125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-41983284329392793912020-04-01T18:38:17.389+01:002020-04-01T18:38:17.389+01:00Tommy the robot nurse:
https://www.reuters.com/art...Tommy the robot nurse:<br />https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-robots/tommy-the-robot-nurse-helps-keep-italy-doctors-safe-from-coronavirus-idUSKBN21J67Y<br />David B. Bensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15914145623997712113noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-15718239416566783332020-04-01T06:27:44.078+01:002020-04-01T06:27:44.078+01:00Yes, Washington state is an outlier, especially si...Yes, Washington state is an outlier, especially since New York City and vicinity dominates. David B. Bensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15914145623997712113noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-43829192951739120662020-04-01T01:11:56.305+01:002020-04-01T01:11:56.305+01:00David,
Willis E has been posting simple plots of d...David,<br />Willis E has been posting simple plots of death vs. days on facebook and at WUWT. Washington state appears to be an outlier as far as slope. Most states are zooming up-- I think I recall he said doubling is on the order or 2-3 days using simple fits. <br /><br />Eyeballing, I'd say the US slope isn't much different from UK. There was a bit of a different trajectory early on, but once it set in, the two appear to have about the same slop on his graph. <br /><br />https://i0.wp.com/wattsupwiththat.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/corona-deaths20200330.png?w=718&ssl=1<br />luciahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12342621789338198739noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-54066787075744395912020-03-31T07:45:15.801+01:002020-03-31T07:45:15.801+01:00have a look
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.11...have a look<br /><br />https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.27.20043752v1stevenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06920897530071011399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-69829516279159749992020-03-31T01:17:46.093+01:002020-03-31T01:17:46.093+01:00For the USA, daily new cases continue to rise, but...For the USA, daily new cases continue to rise, but the slope is much less.<br /> The estimate for Washington state is that R0 has been reduced from 2.7 to 1.4. Already. David B. Bensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15914145623997712113noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-13029560086507075862020-03-30T17:04:51.678+01:002020-03-30T17:04:51.678+01:00I'd just like to point out that the new report...I'd just like to point out that the new report from IC vindicates everything I've said in this post. Link added at the top of the post.James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-54335568354741644782020-03-30T16:50:11.309+01:002020-03-30T16:50:11.309+01:00China is likely not reporting the whole truth. Lik...China is likely not reporting the whole truth. Likely in the same place as South Korea, and that is not a bad place. Playing wack-a-virus.<br /><br />I see three ways we go:<br />The killing field, where the virus does its worst. Millions dead. India and Africa may go this way. Much of the Middle East. Much of South and Central America. Survivors will not need a vaccine, as most will become immune.<br />Wack-a-virus for a year or so, then vaccine.<br />Shutdown everything until you can play wack-a-virus, then a vaccine in a year or so.<br />Korea might need to have a shutdown if it gets away from them. Hopefully just a local one, long enough to find enough cases to snuff the sparks out.Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07567197089095711546noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-13349389567952968492020-03-30T16:19:51.259+01:002020-03-30T16:19:51.259+01:00Yes, South Korea, Japan, etc. they are all playing...Yes, South Korea, Japan, etc. they are all playing with a lit fuse. They think they've snuffed it out, and it starts burning again. They could succeed at it forever, or: boom. <br /><br />After reading about Japan, good gawd. I think they're going to get kneecapped; baby boom in a couple of years.<br /><br />It's China. Only China knows what they are doing. They did it like a veterinarian would do it. Kill the gawd damned thing. I watched my Dad and his colleagues kill every hog on a farm, and inform the farmer he could not have hogs on his land for years. Can't remember the exact, but I think it was 6 or 7. -JCHAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01186405235008602228noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-40089175975105447922020-03-30T14:05:36.307+01:002020-03-30T14:05:36.307+01:00Everett, yes I can do an instantaneous doubling ti...Everett, yes I can do an instantaneous doubling time and how it varies over time. Basically a constant until a significant proportion affected, at which point it lengthens I dunno exactly how the shape would go. Maybe have a look next time I fire up the code.<br /><br />steven, it will be a challenge for sure. Will be interesting to see how it goes long-term. In the long run of course we are all dead, but maybe we get a vaccine first :-)James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-20753789102166596782020-03-30T13:33:35.556+01:002020-03-30T13:33:35.556+01:00"And as for SK, it managed to achieve control..."And as for SK, it managed to achieve control - for now - with methods that we haven't managed to implement."<br /><br />we are playing wack a mole in Korea. cases stable at about 100 per day, large percentage imports.<br />the wack a mole approach will work until it doesn't. them boom. tick tock......<br />Here is what we are up against. every few days a hospital comes down with it.<br />ALL patients are tested, ALL staff, All family members, all contacts,, etc<br />typical profile will be... 1 staff has it, 30% of patients, 10% of family, 15%<br />of visitors... numbers "like" that. which looks like the staff started it.<br />we have the luxury of going crazy with contact tracing and mass testing.<br />patient in building X? boom, test the whole building. positive rates with this<br />approach is <5%. Asymptomatic rates are 20% So, person X gets it. Test his whole<br />company.. find 40 more cases, 20% symptomatic.<br /><br />Same thing for larges churches, out current and recurrent problem.<br />God will save them, so they go to church, packed like sardines.. 1 has it, then<br />BOOM, we get another 50. News covers it, subways they rode on are all shown on the<br />news, phone apps go off alerting you.. news shows their route through the city<br />Bus they took, what times, what stops, etc.<br /><br />My sense? not sustainable. Its just a matter of time before we get another patient 31<br />who gave it to something like 1000 people.<br /><br />Some stupid shit they do in Korea. quarantines with your family. Yikes.stevenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06920897530071011399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-7836302925916591762020-03-29T20:55:05.988+01:002020-03-29T20:55:05.988+01:00JA,
Oops, if possible, call it effective doubling...JA,<br /><br />Oops, if possible, call it effective doubling time based on the output data from your model.Everett F Sargenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00201577558036010680noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-76630437359656673092020-03-29T20:52:32.490+01:002020-03-29T20:52:32.490+01:00JA,
Really nice post!
I posted a doubling time p...JA,<br /><br />Really nice post!<br /><br />I posted a doubling time plot (deaths) over at ATTP's ... <br />https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49709685448_98a143b3b4_b.jpg<br />I don't have a model, but it does need a model, badly. No amount of curve fitting or extrapolations yields reasonable long term numbers (e. g. extinction events unless you get doubling times into the range of double figures rather quickly).<br /><br />For Europe and especially the USA doubling times must increase significantly over the next 2-3 weeks.<br /><br />I don't know if your model can use local regressions or whatever, but a form of doubling time plot, similar to what I've shown above, is that possible from your modelling efforts?Everett F Sargenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00201577558036010680noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-74560627006210619622020-03-29T20:50:19.025+01:002020-03-29T20:50:19.025+01:00James, Your sarcastic comment about doctors dying...James, Your sarcastic comment about doctors dying is of course anecdotal and meaningless as I'm sure you know. The media has misreported some of the deaths amoung the young either misstating whether they were "healthy" and also the cause of death in some cases. Fear mongering is not helpful and actually does harm. It's just a fact that all the statistics show very low fatality rates amoung those under 40 who are otherwise healthy. Those under 20 apparently are essentially not getting sick at all.David Younghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17029429374522399227noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-25924295870233589402020-03-29T20:07:08.162+01:002020-03-29T20:07:08.162+01:00Japan hasn't had its epidemic yet - it is grow...Japan hasn't had its epidemic yet - it is growing more slowly there, for a number of possible reasons, but it's still growing! And as for SK, it managed to achieve control - for now - with methods that we haven't managed to implement.<br /><br />But I'm sure you are right, these doctors working up to shortly before their own deaths on trying to save CV patients were probably at death's door already....James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-73951414980482260762020-03-29T19:34:17.679+01:002020-03-29T19:34:17.679+01:00I just don't see how 600K deaths in the UK is ...I just don't see how 600K deaths in the UK is possible based on the experience in places like South Korea and Japan.<br /><br />I do wonder how biased the death numbers are. If you die and test positive for covid19 you are included in the statistics. If you die from respiratory syndrome or any other condition, you are not tested for flu generally and you are not counted in flu statistics. Flu mortality numbers are guesses anyway. I could see covid19 death numbers being exaggerated by a factor of 2-5 because most of the people who die are already pretty seriously ill with other conditions. Covid19 might have been only a small contributory factor to their deaths.<br /><br />Even in the wildly biased WHO fatality statistics for those under 40 the death rate is 0.2% meaning in reality its probably less than 0.05%. These people just don't have a lot to worry about. They just need to worry about exposing their elderly and already ill relatives and friends.<br />David Younghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17029429374522399227noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-65782303879862717322020-03-29T17:20:57.112+01:002020-03-29T17:20:57.112+01:00To the virus, an immune host and a perfectly isola...To the virus, an immune host and a perfectly isolated host are the same thing: the virus is going to die. SARS-CoV in 2003 infect ~8,000 and killed ~800. Despite difficult transmission characteristics, it managed to leap oceans on airplanes. SARS was a limited spread virus with 10% lethality. Be extremely afraid. SARS-CoV-2 is a better spreader, but it can be headed off: either by government initiatives at tract ID, isolate, or it can simply dead end: fail to find a host, and the chain dies. To overcome its spreading deficiencies takes time: a slow jerky build. It hits a moment, and it suddenly becomes a spreading machine: Hubei, but not to neighboring provinces (because the Chinese countermeasures were extreme to an extreme): Italy (where countermeasures were a sieve): to the rest of Europe (sieve): to UK (sieve). In Italy the virus is most likely hitting the low effectiveness of their sieve countermeasures, which indicative of what this virus is: ultimately easy to stop, even if you're really bad it. Because an isolated person, even if they're bad at isolation, remains less accessible to the virus as a host. In Italy, hopefully, the virus is hitting the slightly better isolators and failing to thrive as well as a result.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01186405235008602228noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-85159569696950108132020-03-29T17:17:58.209+01:002020-03-29T17:17:58.209+01:00R0 of people sitting alone in rooms is almost exac...R0 of people sitting alone in rooms is almost exactly 0. Italy isn't quite to that yet. The doubling time should no long exist in Italy as there is a tipping point at R0 = 1.0<br /><br />What you would see after R0 goes below 1.0 is rising deaths for something like 3 weeks to a month. The time between infection and death. Roughly a month after lock down, death rate should start to fall. See Wuhan or South Korea. I'm not sure Italy can remain a stable state for another week... Italian government needs to make sure people have food.<br /><br />https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/world/italy-becoming-impatient-with-lockdown-and-social-unrest-is-brewing/ar-BB11RR77?li=BBS2yio<br /><br /><br />Confirmed cases most likely are a function of the number of tests that can be run.<br /><br /><br />Herd immunity isn't likely in Italy yet. See San Marino.<br /><br />https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries<br />(then sort by deaths/1M)<br /><br />San Marino is a tiny country with a long history located in Northern Italy. This is probably a reasonable sample of Northern Italy. If the number of cases was even close, the infection rate is 0.7%. The recovered rate is 0.2%. Estimating from the number deaths (1% death rate guess) might be as much as a 7% infection rate. Herd immunity happens at much higher rates, usually 50% or higher. This is very roughly about 10% of a full scale epidemic.<br />Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07567197089095711546noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-68262227043963559782020-03-29T08:17:44.600+01:002020-03-29T08:17:44.600+01:00R0 is a bitch
https://faculty.eeb.ucla.edu/lloyds...R0 is a bitch<br /><br />https://faculty.eeb.ucla.edu/lloydsmith/publications/publications_files/Nature_LloydSmith_2005_Superspreading%20and%20individual%20variation.pdf<br /><br />https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4945728/stevenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06920897530071011399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-20433541320147242252020-03-29T08:09:35.536+01:002020-03-29T08:09:35.536+01:00The doubling time in Italy now seems to have gone ...The doubling time in Italy now seems to have gone up to about 6 days. Lombardy may be getting towards herd immunity, so the curve there might flatten ‘naturally’, but not the rest of Italy yet, surely... maybe it is too soon to tell and the doubling it will rise much further but the blue one looks truthy to me for lockdown European stylee. R0=3.2 ?!juleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02591920483149775255noreply@blogger.com