tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post186948721418513904..comments2024-02-15T04:42:41.606+00:00Comments on James' Empty Blog: The failure of brexitJames Annanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comBlogger21125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-31038912066540048942018-12-24T02:23:15.608+00:002018-12-24T02:23:15.608+00:00Looks to me that entropy is winning. Looks to me that entropy is winning. David B. Bensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15914145623997712113noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-54111993060996787612018-12-22T16:11:18.316+00:002018-12-22T16:11:18.316+00:00We can also get 5/1 on Article 50 being revoked bu...We can also get 5/1 on Article 50 being revoked but I thought I was sufficiently emotionally invested in it that adding a bet on top (especially at such modest odds) seems relatively pointless. If it happens, losing 100 quid would add insult to injury and if it doesn't then another 500 quid would hardly raise my happiness levels.<br /><br />I agree it's hard to be fully rational but putting a Bayesian spin on it, if brexit was not going to happen, the likelihood of seeing the current sequence of events seems fairly high to me. There's no question that the odds must be increasing whatever your prior was.James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-75273799463553123782018-12-19T14:17:27.711+00:002018-12-19T14:17:27.711+00:00You can currently get 5/2 on Brexit not happening ...You can currently get 5/2 on Brexit not happening before 2022. Only just over 3 years to wait for multiplying your money by 3.5. Have you had a flutter and did you get better odds than that? It has been up to over 7/1. (Not sure if this link will work: https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/marketactivity?id=1.130856098&selectionId=12832771 )<br /><br />I haven't taken up any significant position. How do you distinguish between wishful thinking, hoping it won't happen and a genuine assessment of an unbiased probability?crandleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15181530527401007161noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-76145350639586892082018-12-17T10:35:15.226+00:002018-12-17T10:35:15.226+00:00This has less coherence than "Waiting for God...This has less coherence than "Waiting for Godot".David B. Bensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15914145623997712113noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-81857524433274153512018-12-15T00:19:19.774+00:002018-12-15T00:19:19.774+00:00James,
like you, I am disappointed in the BBC but...James,<br /><br />like you, I am disappointed in the BBC but it began before the referendum. They took a neutral stance and guess what. The result was 50/50 give a few per cent. They still seem to be trying to be even-handed, and ignoring the truth. If they continue that policy then even if there is a second referendum there is no guarantee the remainers will win it. Don't forget the grass is always greener ...<br /><br />Here is an open letter to Vince Cable which explains where I think some of the lies are being told today:<br /><br />"Dear Vince,<br /><br />Thank you for your email thanking me for signing up to an Exit to Brexit. But campaigning for a second referendum is not enough. We also have to win it.<br /><br />To do that we need to start campaigning straight away by pointing out why a United Europe is a good idea. Can I ask you to include pro-European arguments when you question the PM in Parliament?<br /><br />For instance: <br /><br />1) Does the PM agree that swapping our main trading partner from Europe to the United States of America will lead to us having our environmental laws set by Donald Trump, rather than a consensus of European nations?<br /><br />2) Can't the PM see that we cannot have an open, what she calls a frictionless, border with the EU, and also be free to sign trade deals with other nations? If that were the case, then these other nations would be able to bypass the EU regulations by shipping into the continent through the UK. That is why the EU needs the Irish backstop to prevent that happening over the Irish border. <br /><br />3) The UK has the sixth largest economy in the world. Is'nt it right that we should pay our fair share into the European budget?<br /><br />4) Is it not true that the troubles with the National Health Service are partly caused by a shortage of nurses due to many returning home as a result of Brexit? <br /><br />I feel that we are not being told the truth. Unless we start exposing the lies being put out by the Brexiteers and the Government, then we will lose a second referendum.Alastairhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15152292130415788120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-48113331746060491922018-12-12T14:25:48.050+00:002018-12-12T14:25:48.050+00:00I suggest you re-ask about now, and remind him of ...I suggest you re-ask about now, and remind him of his previous response :-)<br />James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-62450213155188996002018-12-12T14:21:52.667+00:002018-12-12T14:21:52.667+00:00Journalists and academics, by studiously avoiding ...<i>Journalists and academics, by studiously avoiding speaking truth to power and colluding with this false brexit certainty, have done a great disservice to the British public.</i><br /><br />We had a serious of meetings in which one of the vice principals came around and told us of the university's plans to deal with Brexit. I put my hand up and asked why the university was presenting a narrative that it was going to happen. Wouldn't it be better to maybe develop a different narrative (I was trying to suggest, not very clearly, that how universities presented this might have an impact on the public debate and that we had an obligation to contribute to this). Most of the people in the room laughed, and the speaker (who was a political scientists) rather condescendingly told me that it was definitely going to happen. ...and Then There's Physicshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04758445533849376372noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-35874798623835798482018-12-12T13:20:44.287+00:002018-12-12T13:20:44.287+00:00Yes some sort of transferrable vote could cope wit...Yes some sort of transferrable vote could cope with multiple choices, but there is a debate to be had on what options should be available. IMO there should be single choice. We already saw what happens when you ask a stupid question.James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-28451796163605109092018-12-12T11:46:22.144+00:002018-12-12T11:46:22.144+00:00I'm not from the UK, but I was always somewher...I'm not from the UK, but I was always somewhere between being baffled and shocked about how a modern, democratic country with a free press and a free exchange of ideas, can rush into such a situation in such a bad way.<br /><br />IMO the best way out of this would be:<br />Make a new referendum with three options:<br /> - Stay in the EU<br /> - Hard brexit with no deal<br /> - Accept May's deal that she negotiated<br /><br />Everyone has two votes: A primary vote and a secondary vote.<br />For those people, that voted with their primary vote for the option with the fewest votes, their secondary votes are counted instead. So in the end, there will be one option with an absolute majority. <br /><br />Or you could do it with just one vote and a runoff-ballot, if no option gets the absolute majority in the first ballot (if the thing with primary and secondary vote is to complex for the people).<br /><br />Either way:<br />This would be IMO the best thing, as everyone gets to vote on the deal, so nobody could say, that it wasn't a democratic decision. And it is not just a repition of the first campaign, because you now have three options: A deal (from which you know what it is), no deal or remain.reasonablemadnesshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02663563207255711832noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-19206675036287492832018-12-11T21:04:45.085+00:002018-12-11T21:04:45.085+00:00Brexit might be a stuoid idea, and the best thing ...Brexit might be a stuoid idea, and the best thing would be to cancel it, but......<br />The government and everyone else IS right to pursue it, and to talk about the possible outcomes. After all, like it or not, the UK is a democracy, and the people did vote for it. Mike Shttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06199290402119283121noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-11176158265609862712018-12-11T16:08:09.370+00:002018-12-11T16:08:09.370+00:00listening to Brexiteers over the last 2-3 years ha...listening to Brexiteers over the last 2-3 years has been like listening to flat earthers - the level of reality denial is the same!!!!!!<br /><br />From Raab's "the EU need to meet us halfway", to Jenkin's "we have the EU on the ropes" <br /><br />and a complete failure of the media - they should have simply cut them off with "stop talking fvcking nonsense" Tadaaahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07736188830660481871noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-29412644201558995562018-12-11T15:27:12.880+00:002018-12-11T15:27:12.880+00:00Thanks, that's interesting. Still a chunk of p...Thanks, that's interesting. Still a chunk of people. But a chunk of people are going to be upset whatever happens, we might as well do the sensible thing and deal with a bunch of unhappy people rather than do something stupid and still have a bunch of unhappy people anyway.James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-38570127855170189622018-12-11T15:17:48.026+00:002018-12-11T15:17:48.026+00:00>"roughly half the country will be shocked...>"roughly half the country will be shocked and feel betrayed"<br /><br />or maybe only 24%<br />https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1072179566653911040<br /><br />or maybe it is much less than that if there is a vote and they lose. Surely some of these 24% then come to think 'O well, it wasn't the will of the people after all'.crandleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15181530527401007161noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-27373183438712994202018-12-11T11:14:20.793+00:002018-12-11T11:14:20.793+00:00The Boris is now claiming to have an alternative, ...The Boris is now claiming to have an alternative, workable, Brexit plan and says he "will take personal responsibility" if the result were to be mass unemployment. I wonder what form that "personal responsibility" would take.<br /><br />Unfortunately, he still has to lie down in front of the bulldozers when work starts on the Heathrow expansion: so he will be too busy to take his plan to Brussels.<br />Andy Mitchellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14975141756383175819noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-67515331132313432952018-12-11T07:57:35.993+00:002018-12-11T07:57:35.993+00:00Sorry Thhhheresa.
My MP is the Govt Chief Whip, h...Sorry Thhhheresa.<br /><br />My MP is the Govt Chief Whip, he's as responsive as a doorpost. He (along with most Tory MPs) voted to remain and realises what damage they are doing to the country, but party comes first for them.James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-77271139822947416742018-12-11T00:20:50.298+00:002018-12-11T00:20:50.298+00:00Hope you make it quite clear to your MP. Hope you make it quite clear to your MP. David B. Bensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15914145623997712113noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-79133222505008823702018-12-11T00:10:16.245+00:002018-12-11T00:10:16.245+00:00Theresa May is the usual spelling.Theresa May is the usual spelling.johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04026071333465100539noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-68137671226367333162018-12-10T23:45:58.021+00:002018-12-10T23:45:58.021+00:00Brexit can mean brexit forever and ever! All that&...Brexit can mean brexit forever and ever! All that's required is a permanent extension of Article 50.<br /><br />This whole business is starting to remind me of the 1850s US, when the Whigs ripped themselves apart over slavery. I doubt that after the dust has settled anyone will miss the Tories any more than the Whigs were missed, but hopefully there won't have been too much actual bloodshed.Steve Bloomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12943109973917998380noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-48854552119710712652018-12-10T21:47:07.956+00:002018-12-10T21:47:07.956+00:00Great minds :-)
i have in mind a galton board exc...Great minds :-)<br /><br />i have in mind a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bean_machine" rel="nofollow">galton board</a> except with a funnel at the bottom. There are a lot of possible pathways and I can't predict the detail but the endpoint is the same. Once you convince yourself that there is no other realistic outcome that will actually command enough support it's not such a leap of faith. IMO. <br /><br />Agree that a 2nd ref is a bad idea. I'm hoping it is just a stalking horse en route to a full revocation of A50. It may be a necessary risk though. Maybe just have one option on the ballot paper? That could work :-)James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-76995073561544856472018-12-10T21:26:10.353+00:002018-12-10T21:26:10.353+00:00That university of yours has an awful lot to answe...That university of yours has an awful lot to answer for.... Inventer of the career politician that cares only about personal power...juleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02591920483149775255noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-24438880170542084992018-12-10T21:21:12.124+00:002018-12-10T21:21:12.124+00:00I hope you're right that it's all off. My ...I hope you're right that it's all off. My brilliant thoughts, in exchange, are <a href="https://mustelid.blogspot.com/2018/12/brexit-again.html" rel="nofollow">here</a>.William M. Connolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.com