tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post112493637952553983..comments2024-02-15T04:42:41.606+00:00Comments on James' Empty Blog: Bet number 2James Annanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-1135274286455784012005-12-22T17:58:00.000+00:002005-12-22T17:58:00.000+00:00With a potential slow-down of the THC, as reported...With a potential slow-down of the THC, as reported by <A HREF-="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v438/n7068/full/nature04385.html" HREF="" REL="nofollow">Bryden, H. L., et al. (2005)</A>, which could mean much cooler conditions, especially for Europe, I'd be skeptical to <EM>ever</EM> bet on climate. Climate is too complex and chaotic to try to predict. On the other hand, I don't even bet on sports games, so who am I to say!<BR/><BR/>In your defense, though, it seems fairly simple to make the jump that greenhouse gass concentrations are continuing to rise, this traps more and more heat in the Earth system, so a bet on warmer temperatures in the future is fairly safe, regardless of what computer models tell us (which also agree).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-1126228919217116232005-09-09T02:21:00.000+01:002005-09-09T02:21:00.000+01:00Tom, it's hard to work out exactly what the odds a...Tom, it's hard to work out <I>exactly</I> what the odds are, as this depends on estimates of natural variability (magnitude and time scale) that are not precisely know. However, the historical 5-year smoothed temperature curve (eg <A HREF="http://julesandjames.blogspot.com/2005/06/predicting-climate-change-2.html" REL="nofollow">here</A>) gives some indication of the scale of short-term natural variability compared to the recent trend. It looks to me like something pretty unusual would have to happen for cooling to occur over the 14 year time scale of the bet. I wouldn't give it more than about a 10% chance, and am happy with those odds.James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-1126192045473816532005-09-08T16:07:00.000+01:002005-09-08T16:07:00.000+01:00James, what are the odds of losing such a bet even...James, what are the odds of losing such a bet even if the AGW hypothesis is true? (i.e. what is the magnitude of internal variability to anticipated warming over this timescale?)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-1125633787975703982005-09-02T05:03:00.000+01:002005-09-02T05:03:00.000+01:00Unfortunately, I'm not turning up interest there, ...Unfortunately, I'm not turning up interest there, even from the person who took the second bet. I'll check again in a while.Brianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09301230860904555513noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-1124997955028193102005-08-25T20:25:00.000+01:002005-08-25T20:25:00.000+01:00Thanks for the heads-up James - I've posted an off...Thanks for the heads-up James - I've posted an offer on the thread.Brianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09301230860904555513noreply@blogger.com